The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB: Case Keenum
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
In the past month, Case Keenum has 10 total touchdowns and averaged 21.66 fantasy points per-game (PPG), with an adjusted completion percentage of 79 percent, which ranks third in the NFL behind Tom Brady and Russell Wilson.
Three of these performances have come against above-average pass defenses: The Rams, Redskins and Lions rank third, 12th and 14th respectively in pass Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Part of Keenum’s success can be ascribed to his offensive line. The front boasts the league’s lowest adjusted sack rate and has allowed just allowed three sacks in the past four weeks.
The Vikes go on the road to Atlanta this week, facing a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in total DVOA and has allowed 21.94 DraftKings points to quarterback this season. The Falcons may be without their top corner Desmond Trufant on Sunday, as he remains in the concussion protocol. Without Trufant, Dan Quinn suggested we could see slot corner Brian Poole on the outside versus Stefon Diggs. Poole allows the league’s highest catch rate at 79 percent. If Trufant plays, Poole will remain in the slot catching up with Adam Thielen, who currently ranks third among fantasy wide receivers and has amassed over 1,000 receiving yards on just 80 receptions, putting him in the elite company of Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. Keenum is on fire, leading the league’s fourth-rated offense (DVOA) facing a Falcons team that ranks seventh in that same measure and has scored more than 27 points in each of their past three games. Game stacks with Keenum at the helm could be an appealing approach to tournament lineups.
RB: Marshawn Lynch
Projected Ownership: 5-8 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Note: On Friday, Lynch’s projected ownership was elevated from 2-4 percent to 5-8 percent. Be sure to track changes to our projections throughout the weekend.
Last week, after Michael Crabtree was ejected in the first quarter and Amari Cooper exited in the second, Jack Del Rio decided to run the ball a season-high 37 times. Marshawn Lynch toted 26 of those carries for 67 yards and a touchdown. While the efficiency isn’t impressive, it’s important to remember that the Broncos have been the league’s stingiest rush defenses, only allowing 3.2 yards per-carry in 2017. It was an unprecedented workload for Lynch, who hadn’t seen more than 18 carries since Week 1. Lynch also added three targets, another season high. With Crabtree and Cooper missing this week, it stands to reason that Lynch could see elite volume again, especially considering the matchup. The Giants rank 25th in rush DVOA and have allowed 23 DraftKings PPG to running backs on the year. In the past month, that number has risen to over 26 PPG, as the Giants have allowed the league’s third-most rushing yards per game. On the year, Lynch owns 80 percent of the team’s rushes inside the 5-yard line, only Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley have a greater share of goal line work. Recently, Lynch has been productive in plus matchups, averaging more than five yards per carry and scoring two TDs versus the Dolphins and Patriots.
RB: Alex Collins
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
The Ravens backfield has been a committee all year, and the addition of Danny Woodhead made it even more complicated last Sunday. But in the past month Alex Collins has played 49 percent of the snaps, compiling 16 carries and four targets per game. In that span, Collins has scored .49 fantasy points per opportunity and averaged 10.1 fantasy points per game.
His workload isn’t phenomenal: Woodhead earned eight touches last week, and Javorius Allen stole six more. But Collins is the clear early-down back. He’s led the team in touches on first and second down, and racked up 4.8 yards per carry on those touches with a 48 percent success rate. He also accounts for 20 of the Ravens’ 26 rushes of 10 yards or more, according to Sharp Football Stats. This week’s matchup with the Lions is the best Collins has had since his Week 9 explosion against the Dolphins, when he earned 113 yards on 18 carries. Detroit has yielded 4.96 yards per carry in the past month and more than one rushing touchdown per game, allowing 29.4 DraftKings points to opposing backfields in that span. It’s frightening to own a back in a time-share, but that same fear will likely depress ownership among other players.
WR: Tyrell Williams
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
Mike Williams has yet to see the practice field for the Chargers this week and is currently listed as doubtful for Sunday, which means that Tyrell Williams may see a bump in volume. Through the first five weeks of the season, before Mike Williams entered the offense, Tyrell was seeing a steady five-plus targets, averaging more than 50 yards per game and 9.8 DraftKings PPG in that span. From Week 6 to 11, Mike and Tyrell cannibalized each other’s fantasy value, earning 16 and 15 targets respectively. The exit of Mike in Week 12 instantly brought Tyrell back to relevance. He caught two deep targets totaling 58 receiving yards and a touchdown, a stat line that looked more familiar to fantasy owners.
Keenan Allen could draw Jason McCourty in shadow coverage. According to Pro Football Focus, McCourty ranks sixth at his position and has shadowed No. 1 wide receivers in four matchups this year. Williams, then, would likely draw Jamar Taylor who has allowed 1.74 yards and .35 fantasy points per route covered, which rank sixth- and ninth-worst respectively among all corners.
TE: Julius Thomas
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
In the past month, Jay Cutler and Matt Moore have shared quarterbacking duties for the Dolphins, but both have made Julius Thomas a viable threat. Thomas has seen 23 total targets in those four weeks and 17 receptions. He’s got one more reception, and exactly one more receiving yard than DeVante Parker during that span — and two more touchdowns. Both of those scores came from Jay Cutler, who will resume his starting quarterback duties this weekend against the Broncos. Denver remains one of the league’s best matchups for tight ends, allowing the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to the position.
