Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 11 Sunday Night Football matchup featuring the Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Cash Game Strategy
This is an ugly slate that features two defenses in the top seven in Football Outsiders’ weighted offensive DVOA (which rates recent games more heavily) and two offenses outside of the top 20.
Among non-punt plays, Tarik Cohen has the top Projected Plus/Minus in our DraftKings Showdown Models. Going with Cohen in the Captain spot lets you get in Jared Goff, Mitchell Trubisky, Todd Gurley, David Montgomery (ankle, questionable) and Greg Zuerlein. If Montgomery is inactive, I’d upgrade to the higher projected player available, which is Cooper Kupp.
UPDATE: With Robert Woods (personal) INACTIVE, Kupp’s floor projection in our Models hits double digits, and the gap between his median and Montgomery’s is wide enough that I’d go with him over Montgomery, even though it means fading Chicago’s top source of rushing TDs.
FanDuel’s scoring format tilts value in favor of QBs relative to the other skill positions, which lends itself to putting Goff in the 1.5x slot there, as he has a 2.4-point advantage in median projection over any other player on the slate. You have to fade one of the Bears RBs to get in Goff, Trubisky and Gurley, and since Montgomery is $4,000 more than Cohen despite less than a 1-point edge in median projection, he’s the choice.
Zuerlein is the top-projected option to fill the last slot.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers, though sometimes players from the cash section will be re-highlighted as appropriate. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
WR Robert Woods, Rams: Woods moves around but spends his most snaps aligned outside right (48% per Pro Football Focus), which means he’ll match up most with Kyle Fuller, who has been picked on most among Bears corners. Fuller has allowed 573 yards and three TDs this season while Chicago’s other two corners, Prince Amukamara and Buster Skrine, have allowed 588 and 3 TDs combined.
UPDATE: Woods is INACTIVE, which should funnel action to Cooper Kupp essentially by default. If you’re working with a limited amount of lineups, it’s probably best to go Captain or nothing with Kupp, because his high price and ownership will likely swing the slate one way or another.
TE Gerald Everett, Rams: The Bears have also been vulnerable to tight ends, ranking 27th in DVOA vs. the position.
WR Taylor Gabriel, Bears: Bears No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson is likely to see a lot of Jalen Ramsey, while the Rams’ 21st-ranking in DVOA vs. No. 2 wide receivers is their worst mark against any position.
Bears DST: Goff has thrown 12 picks, taken 33 sacks and fumbled 12 times this season.
Rams DST: Trubisky hasn’t been as mistake-prone as Goff, but the Bears have been held to 16 points or fewer in five of his eight starts.
Note: Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. Unless otherwise noted, all player correlation data is from the past 12 months and team correlation data is from the start of 2019.
- Goff-Kupp +0.71
- Goff-Reynolds +0.53
- Goff-Everett +0.52
- Gurley-Zuerlein +0.41
- Goff-Zuerlein +0.39
- Goff-Rams DST +0.34
- Goff-Higbee +0.30
- Goff-Woods +0.12
- Goff-Gurley +0.06
- Kupp-Everett -0.03
- Kupp-Woods -0.17
- Gurley-Brown -0.22
- Goff-Brown -0.26
- Gurley-Rams DST -0.42
Zuerlein is one of the better plays in this game and correlates well with the key players on the Rams. The correlations also show leverage in pivoting from Kupp to Woods as mentioned above.
- Trubisky-Gabriel +0.41
- Trubisky-Robinson +0.39
- Trubisky-Patterson +0.30
- Trubisky-Miller +0.30
- Montgomery-Piniero +0.25
- Trubisky-Cohen +0.13
- Robinson-Gabriel -0.14
- Montgomery-Bears DST -0.31
- Trubisky-Montgomery -0.42
- Trubisky-Piniero -0.42
- Montgomery-Robinson -0.64
- Montgomery-Cohen -0.66
The positive Trubisky-Gabriel and negative Robinson-Gabriel correlations set up well for pivoting from Trubisky-Robinson to Trubisky-Gabriel.
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
RB David Montgomery, Bears: If active, Montgomery will likely attract less ownership than usual, and he has negative correlations to all of the other top players on the Bears.
RB Malcolm Brown, Rams: Has seen 12 red-zone carries on the season.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- WR Josh Reynolds, Rams: Has run a route on 90% or more of the team’s pass plays over the past two weeks and his 13.7 average depth of target is tops among Rams regulars.
- TE Tyler Higbee, Rams: As mentioned, the Bears are ranked 27th in DVOA vs. tight ends. However, Higbee has run less than half as many routes as Gerald Everett for three straight games. UPDATE: Woods absence gives Higbee a bump, as the Rams could use more 2TE sets rather than go with unproven wideouts Mike Thomas, Nsimba Webster, and special-teamer JoJo Natson.
- TE Ben Braunecker, Bears: Has the top Projected Plus/Minus on the slate as he starts for the injured Trey Burton (calf) and Adam Shaheen (foot).
- WR Mike Thomas, Rams: Fourth on the wide receiver depth chart but one target on the year. UPDATE: Thomas will likely see the most snaps in place of Woods and gets the biggest bump among Rams WRs under Woods here, but it’s probable the Rams go with more 2TE sets to compensate for a chunk of Woods’ snaps.
- WR Anthony Miller, Bears: Ran a route on 79% of the pass plays last week, a four-week high.
- WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Bears: Saw his routes per dropback rate jump to 41% last week but is averaging only 1.22 targets per game on the season.
- RB Darrell Henderson, Rams: Played fewer snaps (8) than Brown (12) last game.
- WR Jojo Natson, Rams: Returner unlikely to see snaps at receiver. UPDATE: Gets a slight bump with Woods inactive.
- WR Nsimba Webster, Rams: Promoted to the active roster but unlikely to see snaps at receiver. UPDATE: Gets a slight bump with Woods inactive.
- RB Ryan Nall, Bears: Playing the old Mike Davis role but could see added work with Montgomery banged up. UPDATE: Gets a slight bump down with Montgomery active.
- WR Javon Wims, Bears: Sees a few routes each game but hasn’t been targeted in four weeks.
- TE J.P. Holtz, Bears: More of a fullback type than a true tight end; has seen three targets on the season.
- TE Johnny Mundt, Rams: Two targets on the year.
Pictured above: Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) and quarterback Jared Goff (16)
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports