The PGA TOUR heads to beautiful Pebble Beach this week to play the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The tournament will feature a three-course rotation utilizing Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. The golfers will play one round at each course before a 54-hole cut, with the final round being played at Pebble Beach.
This week’s field comprises 156 players, including Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, and Viktor Hovland.
Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par 72 measuring 6,828 yards and featuring Poa annua greens. Spyglass Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,035 yards, and Monterey Peninsula is a par 71 measuring 6,958 yards.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
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Strokes Gained: Approach
Unsurprisingly, approach grades out as the most important statistic for Pebble Beach.
On a very short course, approaches to the green are understandably more indicative of success than smashing it off the tee. With tiny greens, Pebble Beach is undoubtedly a second-shot golf course.
- High-end target: Tom Hoge – $10,000 (1st SG: APP)
- Mid-range target: Ben Griffin– $8,600 (4th SG: APP)
- Value target: David Lipsky – $8,200 (7th SG: APP)
SG: Total on Par 72s under 7200 yards
Pebble Beach is uniquely short for a par 72. This statistic will show what kind of golfers play well on these types of courses.
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth– $10,600 (5th SG: Total on par 72s under 7200 yards)
- Mid-range target: Justin Rose – $9,500 (4th SG: Total on par 72s under 7200 yards)
- Value target: Nick Taylor – $8,000 (9th SG: Total on par 72s under 7200 yards)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa and Fast)
With the course being so short, one of its primary defenses is its fast Poa annua greens. Strokes Gained: Putting has historically been extremely important here, as evidenced by former winners (Spieth, Mickelson, Snedeker).
Great Poa putters typically play very well in California.
- High-end target: Maverick McNealy – $9,600 (3rd Strokes Gained: Putting Poa and Fast)
- Mid-range target: Kevin Kisner – $8,500 (2nd Strokes Gained: Putting Poa and Fast)
- Value target: Justin Suh – $7,300 (15th Strokes Gained: Putting Poa and Fast)
Pebble Beach has historically been a specialist’s course. Every winner of this event since 2006 has a top-21 finish in a previous appearance.
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth – $10,600 (2nd SG: Total at Pebble Beach)
- Mid-range target: Scott Stallings – $7,900 (5th SG: Total at Pebble Beach)
- Value target: Beau Hossler – $7,400 (23rd SG: Total at Pebble Beach)
Birdies or Better Gained
With the winning score likely to get close to twenty under par, making birdies is a must this week.
- High-end target: Viktor Hovland – $10,300 (1st Birdies or Better Gained)
- Mid-range target: Thomas Detry – $8,800 (10th Birdies or Better Gained)
- Value target: Matthias Schmid– $7,100 (9th Birdies or Better Gained)