Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

The PGA TOUR continues its Florida Swing at Bay Hill Club & Lodge to play the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. The event has been a mainstay on TOUR, appearing on the schedule every year since 1979. However, this year the tournament will be a “designated event,” which offers a $20 million prize pool.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par 72, measuring 7,454 yards, and features Bermuda grass greens. Prior to the last two years, the previous five editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational yielded international champions. Bay Hill can play extremely difficult if the wind picks up, but the course certainly has teeth whether there is wind or not.

The event being “designated” guarantees that all of the top players will be in attendance this week — 44 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will be teeing it up at one of the most iconic courses on Tour.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

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Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is often the most important statistic, and this week will be no different. This is a difficult golf course, and players will be penalized for missing greens in regulation.

High-end target: Xander Schauffele — $9,200 (2nd SG: Approach)
Mid-range target: Gary Woodland — $7,400 (4th SG: Approach)
Value target: Robby Shelton — $6,600 (11th SG: Approach)

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

To compete at Bay Hill, golfers will need an excellent performance off the tee. Distance is important due to the length of the course and its layout, but accuracy is just as important. We have seen some events of late where golfers can get away with bad tee shots. Bay Hill isn’t one of those courses. The rough is extremely thick and penal, so saving par after a poor tee shot isn’t likely.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $10,900 (1st SG: OTT)
Mid-range target: Gary Woodland — $7,400 (9th SG: OTT)
Value target: Will Gordon — $6,500 (8th SG: OTT)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning)

A major reason why Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is due to the incredibly fast greens. The Bermuda putting surfaces have played “lightning” fast in every round since 2017.

High-end target: Xander Schauffele — $9,200- (5th SG: Putting Bermuda and Lightning)
Mid-range target: Matt Fitzpatrick — $8,800 (3rd SG: Putting Bermuda and Lightning)
Value target: Brendon Todd — $6,700 (8th SG: Putting Bermuda and Lightning)

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

While ball striking is in part off the tee and approach, I want the total tee-to-green package built into the model this week. It will take a well-rounded effort from tee to green to get it done at Bay Hill this week.

High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,500 (4th SG: Ball Striking)
Mid-range target: Gary Woodland — $7,400 (3rd SG: Ball Striking)
Value target: Nick Hardy — $6,400 (16th SG: Ball Striking)

Strokes Gained: Par 5

With four par 5s on the course, it will be important to take advantage of these holes. While I don’t expect the winning score to be quite as uninspiring as last year, it certainly won’t be a birdie fest.

Whoever takes the best advantage of the scoreable par 5s may have the best shot to win.

High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,500 (1st SG: Par 5)
Mid-range target: Collin Morikawa — $9,500 (4th SG: Par 5)
Value target: Keith Mitchell — $8,000 (10th SG: Par 5)

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For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.

Use Underdog Fantasy promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus.