The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall‘s been cooking in this series:
The five-time All-Star has topped 60 FanDuel points in three of four games on the heels of 26.8 points, 13.0 assists, and 3.0 steals per game. Here at FantasyLabs we use a PECOTA-style sim score model to analyze how the 30 most comparable players have performed in the past as the basis for our floor projections, and Wall’s floor is projected significantly higher than Russell Westbrook‘s on this slate.
Speaking of Westbrook, he fell more than 15 points below salary-based expectations on FanDuel for the third time in four road games this season against the Jazz on Monday, but he’s outperformed his salary in all four home games against them. Using data since the 2014-15 season, our NBA Trends tool confirms that this is more than a small sample trend:
Though the splits suggest Westbrook is likely to bounce back at home in Game 5, his lack of efficiency against Utah — particularly Ricky Rubio — is concerning. Westbrook is yet to shoot better than 40% from the field in the series and has committed a mind-numbing 21 turnovers through four games. And on 166 possessions in which he’s been guarded by Rubio, Westbrook has been held by the Spaniard to 37.5% shooting, and Rubio has forced 11 turnovers against Westbrook so far without committing a single foul.
Value
To put the DFS value of Rubio into context: He’s averaging just 3.1 FanDuel points per game fewer than Westbrook in this series. In fact, Rubio’s been an absolute smash play for at least a month now:
The 27-year-old sits on top of the Projected Plus/Minus rankings in our NBA Models for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Fast Break
There are surprises and then there’s Derrick Rose all of a sudden looking like he’s back. Rose played a series-high 32 minutes in Game 4, dropping 17 points on 7-of-11 shooting to go along with six rebounds and four assists. He’s averaging 22.3 DraftKings points and 21.1 FanDuel points per game this series, which is above his salary-based expectations on both sites. And his resurgence has cut into the minutes of Jeff Teague, who is averaging 29.1 minutes per game in the series after logging 33.1 minutes per game during the regular season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It’s hard to recommend spending five figures on James Harden when Donovan Mitchell costs over $2,000 less. Mitchell is averaging 45.3 FanDuel points per game in the series and has been a high-floor, high-ceiling play over his past 10 contests:
The rookie out of Louisville has been roasting Corey Brewer in a piping hot pan of 50% shooting this series and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.56 for Game 5.
Value
Kyle Korver has played at least 26 minutes in two of his past three games, firing at least eight 3s and hitting DFS value on both sites in both of those games. He’s a solid punt play at $4,300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Fast Break
J.R. Smith has played 34-35 minutes in each of his past three games and is another Cavs shooting guard you can punt with, though it makes more sense to roster him on FanDuel at $3,600 than to do so on DraftKings at $4,400.
Andrew Wiggins‘ salary on FanDuel has come down $600 after a shaky Game 4 that saw him register just three rebounds and one assist to complement 14 points. However, that salary drop gives him a 93% Bargain Rating on the site, and only Victor Oladipo has a better Opponent Plus/Minus among shooting guards.
Meanwhile, Oladipo’s Bargain Ratings clearly favor DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary represents a $900 decrease since Game 2. That said, he’s still a risky tournament play after his DraftKings points per minute decreased each game this series, going from 1.53 to 1.31 to 1.03 to 0.87. The Cavs have seemingly found an answer for Oladipo in the form of Smith, who has limited him to 29.6% shooting and more turnovers (nine) than field goals made (eight) on 116 possessions in the series.
DeMar DeRozan and Bradley Beal both carry similar risk/reward profiles to Oladipo as they square off in Toronto in Game 5. Through four games of their series, each of them has scored more than 45 and fewer than 30 DraftKings points in a game at least once.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James … LeBron James … LeBron James … LeBron James:
(FanDuel)
James’ floor has been unreal against Indiana this season. Our Models have him projected for a floor of just about 40 FanDuel points in Game 5, and our Trends tool shows that he’s delivered when his floor has been in that range in the past:
(FanDuel, since 2014-15)
The tool also shows that he’s been particularly dominant at home in those situations:
There’s no better option for your top cap hit on Wednesday than The King.
Value
Bojan Bogdanovic has gone a combined 9-of-15 from beyond the arc this series when checked by either Korver, Smith, or Rodney Hood, and he boasts a slate-high +6.6 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s averaging 26.9 points on DraftKings and 25.6 on FanDuel in the series, which is great production for a player that costs under $5,500 on both sites.
Fast Break
After playing just 16 minutes in Game 1, Kelly Oubre has averaged 26.5 minutes per game over the last three games. If he plays that much again in Game 5 and scores fantasy points at his usual per-minute clip of 0.8, he should have no problem paying off his $4,300 price tag on both sites.
Paul George and Jimmy Butler are tournament options if you dare to fade LeBron. For users playing on both DraftKings and FanDuel, not that George’s Bargain Rating is higher on FanDuel while Butler’s is higher on DraftKings. The former Pacer has maintained a solid floor this postseason, scoring at least 37.5 FanDuel points in three of four games against Utah and 32.9 in the other. Butler has a better Opponent Plus/Minus than George, but he’s failed to top 30 DraftKings points in both Minnesota road games so far in the series. The former Bulls wing used to put up better numbers on the road with coach Tom Thibodeau back when they were in Chicago together, but that hasn’t been the case since they reunited about 500 miles north:
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love isn’t quite priced like a stud, but he’s the most-expensive power forward on FanDuel at $7,700. He’s a much better play on DraftKings (where he’s also eligible at center) at $6,700, though, with that price $1,000 less than it was at its series-high point in Game 2. The decrease makes him appealing in tournaments, but he’s still an uninspiring cash-game play after failing to top 30 DraftKings points in each of his past three games.
Value
Carmelo Anthony has been a high-floor play against the Jazz all season:
(FanDuel)
Melo managed to squeak past value in Game 4 despite shooting 5-of-18 and is the top value at the position Wednesday.
Fast Break
Serge Ibaka is averaging 30.9 DraftKings points per game in four meetings at home with Washington this season but just 17.6 DraftKings points per game in four matchups on the road. That trend goes back as far as the 2014-15 season but has been amplified this current season:
It’s also worth noting that the aforementioned road games against the Wizards have been Ibaka’s only real hiccups over his past 10 games:
With Ibaka’s team back up north for Game 5, there’s an elevated chance that he resumes hitting value on Wednesday evening.
If you click over to our Ownership page, you’ll see that Derrick Favors was owned at 59% in the $222 FanDuel tournament last Saturday and 75% in the $100 FanDuel tournament last Monday. We have him projected as the highest-owned power forward on the slate on FanDuel, and if that ends up being the case it would make sense to play Favors more in cash games than in tourneys. Outside of a monster game in Game 3, the No. 3 overall pick from 2010 has been more of a floor play than a ceiling play against the Thunder this season:
Meanwhile, Markieff Morris has been anything but a floor play against the Raptors:
(DraftKings)
Our Models have Morris projected for the ninth-highest floor but fifth-highest ceiling on DraftKings — which is just the type of volatility that’s ideal for tournaments.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been better over his last two games, averaging 20.0 points per game after pathetically mustering just 13 combined points in the first two games of the series. A trip back to H-Town for Game 5 might resurrect those issues, though, because like his teammate Butler, Towns hasn’t been able to consistently produce DFS value outside of Minnesota this season:
(DraftKings)
In four road matchups with the Rockets, Towns has averaged 38.3 DraftKings points — 12.8 points per game below his average against them in four home matchups and 2.3 points below what his $8,500 salary implies.
Value
Clint Capela is outscoring Towns on DraftKings in this series, 38.5 points per game to 35.2. Capela is averaging 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in eight games against Minnesota this season, which would put him on pace for just under 40 if he continues to average 30.5 minutes per game this series. Of course, Towns’ atrocious defense helps the cause; Capela’s +4.46 Opponent Plus/Minus is among the highest at the position.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert has been winning the battle against Steven Adams this series. The Stifle Tower is putting up 15.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game while Adams (no, I’m not going to call him the Kiwi Phenom) is managing only 9.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks. The Stifle Tower has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and our Models have him with the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position save for Capela’s.
Jakob Poeltl lived up to his status as the No. 9 overall pick for Toronto in 2016 last Sunday, going for 10 points and seven rebounds in a series-high for him of 24 minutes. Poeltl is in play in tournaments — and so is Jonas Valanciunas if you live by the “be greedy when others are fearful” mantra. Valanciunas was relegated to 15 minutes in Game 4 by Poeltl’s strong play, but as most starting centers do, Valanciunas tends to perform better at home:
(FanDuel, 2017-18)
On the other side of the matchup we have Marcin Gortat, who’s a punt option on FanDuel at $4,100 if you need him. Just be sure to keep in mind he’s on the road and averaging just 16.8 FanDuel points per game in the series.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit: Trevor Ruszkowski – USA TODAY Sports
