As the bye weeks keep rolling on and the season keeps churning, there are going to be peaks and valleys in DFS. I was reminded of that in the worst way last week — I built a garbage cash lineup and got absolutely smashed (I won just 12.5% of my head-to-heads).
After getting absolutely hammered in cash games last week, I feel a lot better about this week. There are some really strong plays across the board even with fantasy friendly teams out on bye (Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, and Green Bay).
Without further ado or introduction, let’s get to this week’s trends.
- Cam Newton Versus Opponents with a Plus/Minus of 1 or more
Bear with me for a minute here. Carson Palmer ($6,700) and Philip Rivers ($6,500) are the clear chalk plays this week at quarterback and for great reason. Palmer is going to be my quarterback in cash games this week; but, if you want to pivot in large-field tournaments, a stack-less Cam Newton ($6,600) is always an option.
On paper, Cam Newton is not a strong play this week. Philadelphia is currently 5th in Football Outsiders’ Pass Defense DVOA and is 27th in fantasy points allowed per pass attempt. (That matters, but…).
I like Cam as a contrarian play for three reasons. First, the Eagles actually have an opposition plus/minus of 1.6 after adjusting for opponents, which is the eight highest in the league (on FanDuel the Eagles’ opposition +/- is 1.9, the third highest). Second, the Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 24.8, tied for their highest Vegas projection of the year. Carolina has scored 14 offensive touchdowns in their five games this year and Cam Newton has accounted for 11 of them (eight passing, three rushing). So if anyone has a high probability of notching at least two touchdowns this weekend, it’s Cam. Lastly, rostering Newton in GPPs is a decent way to differentiate your lineup in tournaments. You can still chase after some of the strong chalk plays (Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, Todd Gurley, Devonta Freeman) but create a unique lineup as Palmer and Rivers are both in the same price range and most of the field are on both options. Palmer was 24% owned and Rivers was 17% owned respectively in FanDuel’s Thursday slate.
- Running Backs With a Projected Plus/Minus of 8 or More Smash Expectation
By now, you have probably read roughly 1,236 columns telling you about how great of a play Todd Gurley is this week. You’re not being sneaky by rostering Gurley at $5,000 on DraftKings this weekend. Sorry to burst anyone’s bubble, but he was 49% owned in FanDuel’s Thursday slate. Still, the above trend is strong data indicating how solid of a play Gurley is this week. His projected plus/minus (median projection minus salary-based expectation) is 10.9, which is third highest ever in Fantasy Labs’ database. That’s absurd. At $5,000, Gurley’s implied points based on his salary is 10.46 DraftKings points. In this trend, running backs met or exceeded expectation 22-of-27 times.
- Games In London (Score Totals)
Right now, the Vegas over/under for Bills-Jaguars is a paltry 41, the lowest on this weeks slate. I went back and pulled the actual score totals from the 12 games played in London so far with the expectation that they would be a little bit lower than they were. Three of the 12 games had scoring totals of 41 or less points. Fantasy Labs’ own Bill Monighetti wrote a fantastic piece on what we know about games in London with some very interesting data on these overseas affairs.
