After a week in Bermuda, the PGA TOUR, we head to Playa Del Carmen, Mexico, for the 2021 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba at El Camaleón Golf Club.
Previously named The Mayakoba Golf Classic and the OHL at Mayakoba, the event has been a TOUR stop since 2007 but was an alternate event until 2014 when it was moved to November and became a primary event. Since then, the tournament has offered full FedEx Cup points and a sizable purse.
The recent fields at Mayakoba have been pretty solid, but this year is one of the strongest fields in the tournament’s history. Some of the notable golfers among the 132 in the field include Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, Sergio Garcia, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, Scottie Scheffler, and Will Zalatoris.
El Camaleon Golf Club is a 6,987 yard Par 71 featuring paspalum greens. This short coastal track has played relatively easy since the tournament’s switch to November but can get tricky if the wind doesn’t cooperate.
For GPP contests on DraftKings. I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
With large, soft, and slow greens at El Camaleon, players should be firing at pins. These green complexes are among the easiest on TOUR, so elite approach play will be key, as usual.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas – $11,200 (7th SG:APP)
- Mid-range target: Russell Knox – $8,300 (4th SG: APP)
- Value Target: Hudson Swafford – $6,300 (5th SG: APP)
El Camaleon is a course where consistent and accurate driving is rewarded. Being a short course, golfer’s can’t bomb their way around the track.
- High-end target: Abraham Ancer – $10,700 (7th Fairways Gained)
- Mid-range target: Russell Henley – $7,700 (12th Fairways Gained)
- Value target: Chez Reavie – $6,600 (1st Fairways Gained)
Greens in Regulation: Gained
GIR Percentage at El Camaleon has been a key indicator of success for past winners. Statistically, GIR has also been more of a factor here than average for a PGA TOUR event. If you are missing greens in regulation this week, it will be almost impossible to keep up with the low scores on top of the leader board. The last four winners of the event have finished in the top ten for greens in regulation.
- High-end target: Scottie Scheffler – $9,900 (9th Greens in Regulation: Gained)
- Mid-range target: Will Zalatoris – $9,100 (2nd Greens in Regulation: Gained)
- Value target: Aaron Rai – $6,700 (5th Greens in Regulation: Gained)
SG: Total (Paspalum)
Paspalum greens are a different surface than what most of the TOUR players are used to. They can be bumpy and slow, and certain golfer’s tend to really thrive on them year in and year out.
Comparable greens can be found at TPC Kuala Lumpur (CIMB Classic), Coco Beach Golf and Country Club (Puerto Rico Open), and Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship).
- High-end target: Justin Thomas – $11,200 (1st in SG: Paspalum)
- Mid-range target: Keegan Bradley – $8,300 (3rd in SG: Paspalum)
- Value target: Adam Long – $7,00 (4th in SG: Paspalum)
With the soft conditions we typically see at El Camaleon, it will be important to target golfers who consistently see birdie opportunities from within 15 feet. Historically, poor putters have done fairly well on Paspalum, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a typically-strong tee to green player get hot with the putter this week.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas – $11,200 (2nd Opportunities Gained)
- Mid-range target: Russell Henley – $8,200 (1st Opportunities Gained)
- Value target: Hudson Swafford – $6,300 (6th Opportunities Gained)