The PGA TOUR heads to the east coast this week on Hilton Head Island for the RBC Heritage, which is the traditional event following The Masters. We have you covered as always from all angles, as you can find my course preview, Landon Silinsky’s cash game plays, and Matt Vincenzi’s stats that matter throughout our resources. I suggest reading up on these to get a base of knowledge on the field, course, and stats before diving into my GPP picks.
I’m going to do things a little differently this week, as I will try to list two players in each range then just a quick note on a pivot. It’ll be a better way to see how I plan to build and give options off of chalk.
This week, my focus will be primarily on good ball strikers with a heavy lean towards golfers who are strong on approach. The course at Harbour Town is known for its tiny greens, which makes it more difficult to hit partially because of their size, but also because of the angles required to get good path lines from the fairways on this course.
I will also be looking strongly at strokes gained around the green and scrambling, as inevitably there will be plenty of missed greens and getting up and down will be vital to keep a round going. This will be one week where I won’t put much stock into the putting side, though I may glance around for bermuda splits, but ultimately the small greens make for some of the most one-putts on TOUR each season which really levels out that factor in my eyes.
Let’s dig right into the plays for the week.
Top Tier
Patrick Cantlay ($10,900 DK/$11,600 FD)
I know, I know. He burned us last week, but sometimes that is the best time to jump back in especially for DFS. Cantlay has shown an ability to bounce back with good finishes after a missed cut, and he certainly has the course history with two Top 3s and a seventh in three appearances at this event. I’ll be back in on him especially at what looks to be depressed ownership.
Paul Casey ($9,200 DK/$10,800 FD)
Casey checks in as the second-ranked player in my overall model this week as he hits all of the stat boxes I am looking for around Harbour Town. He’s also just flatly too cheap on both sites in relation to his overall performance. I am am hopeful he comes out with the same cross handed putting stroke that he found success with in his final round at The Masters, because we know we can rely on that ball striking to put him in position.
Pivot: If I am pivoting from ownership up top it looks like Cameron Smith ($10,200 DK/$11,000 FD) is the odd man out. He is a bit higher priced than we are used to seeing him but that’s because of four straight Top 20s with two Top 10s in his last four events. He’s tracking for single digit ownership and looks like a good way to be different at the top.
Mid Tier
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800 DK/$10,400 FD)
Rather than put this in the pivot section, I’ll just make Tommy an official play over a similarly ranked Abraham Ancer. These two guys are $100 apart on DraftKings, but Ancer is projected for triple the ownership. I just don’t see much of a gap between the two right now, and will happily take the leverage with the Englishman.
Charley Hoffman ($7,900 DK/$9,700 FD)
The top player in my model is Charley Hoffman. Let that soak in for a minute. He has been phenomenal for several weeks, and it’s a big reason he’s my favorite bet to win in our staff picks article. I know he is going to be chalky, but there just isn’t any way I can get off of him with everything he has going leading up to this event. I’ll look to diversify elsewhere.
Chris Kirk ($7,500 DK/$9,300 FD)
You can take everything I said about Charley above, and insert it here for my third-ranked player, Chris Kirk. It all applies, including the chalk, but I am still in here.
Pivot: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700 DK/$9,600 FD) checks in around half the ownership of Hoffman and Kirk, but has the approach and short game to compete this week. He will need to keep it in play off the tee and if he does that, he has the ability to contend
Value Plays
Cameron Davis ($7,400 DK/$9,100 FD)
The Australian is a guy I just can’t quit, but for good reason. When he makes the weekend, his scoring upside is such that he almost always outscores his price. I genuinely believe he will win at some point on the PGA TOUR and he has taken a liking to these shorter Pete Dye tracks in his young career.
Lucas Glover ($7,100 DK/$8,900 FD)
Full disclosure, every time I play Glover he’s on the cutline as the sixth and last guy in my best lineup. I don’t think it’s ever ended well, but here I am playing him again. He’s shown his typical ball striking form in recent weeks, and has a solid history around this course. Glover is one with upside when he makes the weekend, and I think he could make some noise this week.
Pivot: Neither of the guys above are looking like they will crack double digits, but if they do, I like a pivot to Harry Higgs ($7,000 DK/$8,400 FD). He has been really sharp with his iron play over the past several weeks, even in his missed cut at the Valero. He also ranks highly in around the green play, all of which should position him for a strong week.
Sleepers
Doug Ghim ($6,900 DK/$8,500 FD)
I was expecting to see more ownership this week on Ghim as he ranks as the clear top player for me below that $7,000 threshold on DK. I’m not going to complain about getting a player I like in good form at low ownership.
Tom Hoge ($6,400 DK/$7,900 FD)
One name I never expected to pop as much as it has for me this week is Tom Hoge. He showed up near the top of my model and as I was fine tuning it, I fully expected him to go away. Instead, he has held strong and looking closer I can see why. He’s gained strokes on approach in seven straight events, including 6.3 on the field at The Valero. This is really all I need to see at this price as he will pay off any result by seeing the weekend, and he opens up a ton of other options.
Pivot: Again, neither of the above are showing a lot of ownership, but one player to watch in this range is Chez Reavie ($6,600 DK/$8,000 FD). If you look at the results and all of the missed cuts, you’ll miss that his ball striking and iron play has been pretty strong, he just can’t putt it in the ocean right now. This is a course that should suit the Reavie we know, and if he happens to be rolling it well this week, he has true win equity that you won’t find in this range.
Pictured above: Tommy Fleetwood
Photo credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
