The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a split slate: There’s a three-game FanDuel and two-game DraftKings early slate starting at 2:20 p.m. ET and a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
All 30 MLB teams are in action today, so it’s a bit surprising how few top-end pitchers are available. Just two are priced above $10,000 on FanDuel:
Clayton Kershaw has made just two starts since returning from the disabled list and is still working his way back into form. The numbers from his most recent start are impressive, as he racked up six strikeouts while allowing just one earned run, but he was limited to just 68 pitches. He will likely increase his workload today vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, but it’s likely that he’ll still be limited in some capacity.
Even if he’s not 100%, he still deserves some consideration. He leads all pitchers in three key categories: moneyline odds (-240), opponent implied run total (2.7) and K Prediction (7.4). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks have historically been awesome values on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Unsurprisingly, Kershaw has outperformed the average pitcher in these situations, posting a historical Plus/Minus of +9.90 and a Consistency Rating of 80% over 15 starts.
The projected Pirates lineup has really struggled against left-handers over the past 12 months, resulting in a .wOBA of just .284. Kershaw seems like a safe option for cash games, and the uncertainty surrounding his pitch count could lower his ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Zack Greinke has been dominant over his past two starts, tallying 13 strikeouts while allowing zero earned runs over 13 innings. However, those games have come against two light-hitting teams in the Pirates and Marlins, and he’ll be moving up a weight class today vs. the St Louis Cardinals. Their projected lineup boasts a wOBA of .318 and a strikeout rate of just 23.9% over the past 12 months. Greinke’s key data points are pedestrian: He owns an opponent implied total of 3.5 runs, moneyline odds of -137 and a K Prediction of 6.8.
Another factor working against Greinke is that this game is in Arizona. Chase Field has started to show its fangs a bit after a quiet start to the season, with pitchers averaging a Plus/Minus of -0.98 on DraftKings since the start of June.
The one area where Greinke does stand out is his recent Statcast data. He’s limited has past three opponents to a batted-ball distance of 202 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 36%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Statcast differentials have provided nice value:
Values
Kyle Hendricks has struggled this season, pitching to a 4.21 ERA and 6.85 K/9 through his first 16 starts, but he’s showed some signs of turning things around recently. He’s held his past two opponents to an average distance of 190 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 28%, all of which are among the top marks on the slate. He’s been extremely unlucky from a fantasy perspective over that time frame, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +69 on FanDuel.
Perhaps he can turn the corner today vs. the Detroit Tigers. They own the third-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, and Hendricks is a large -205 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and salaries ($6,900) have been strong options on FanDuel:
That said, he still seems like more of a cash game option given his pitiful strikeout numbers this season. The Tigers have also struck out in just 21.8% of at-bats against right-handers in 2018, so it’s not a particularly good matchup for Hendricks in that regard either.
Strikeouts have not been an issue for Domingo German, who leads all pitchers on today’s slate with a 12-month K/9 of 11.32. He also benefits from pitching for the Yankees, who have been one of the best teams in baseball this season. He’s been favored in eight of his nine previous starts, and he’ll make it nine-of-10 today vs. the Atlanta Braves. His moneyline odds of -185 are the third highest on the slate despite the fact that his opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs ranks just sixth.
He also enters this contest in good recent form after allowing an average distance of just 189 feet over his past three starts. That results in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -13 feet, and pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and distance differentials have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.29 on DraftKings.
Shane Bieber has only made four starts for the Indians this season, but the early results have been promising. He’s pitched to an ERA of just 2.22, and his FIP and xFIP are only slightly higher. He’s also posted a K/9 of 9.99, so he’s been really impressive in his first season in the big leagues.
He has one of the best matchups on the board today against the Kansas City Royals, who have been the lowest scoring team this season. They’ve been particularly poor against right-handed pitchers, with their .286 wOBA ranking dead last among all 30 teams.
Fastballs
Jake Odorizzi: He stands out on the early slate given his strikeout upside against the Milwaukee Brewers, whose projected lineup has struck out in 29.7% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months. Odorizzi’s K Prediction of 8.3 leads all pitchers.
Jack Flaherty: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.76 on FanDuel over his past 10 starts and has compiled some elite Statcast data over his past two. It results in 15-day/12-month distance and hard hit differentials of -26 feet and -11 percentage points, which could make him an intriguing contrarian option as an underdog vs. Greinke.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
While the Brewers strike out in bunches, they also have the potential to do a lot of damage. They’ve posted the 12th-highest wOBA against right-handers this season, and the majority of the stacked batters enter today’s contest in solid recent form. Brad Miller, Travis Shaw and Ryan Bruan all own hard-hit differentials of at least 6.0 percentage points over the past 15 days, and Shaw and Bruan own positive distance differentials as well. Their implied team total of 5.0 runs is the top mark on the early slate, so they will likely be popular.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Rockies own the highest implied team total of the day at 6.4 runs, but the Astros’ mark of 6.0 runs isn’t far behind. Their batters are also significantly cheaper, resulting in a slate-high Team Value Rating of 91 on FanDuel. They have an outstanding matchup vs. Rangers right-hander Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who has posted a dreadful 1.73 WHIP over the past 12 months.
Alex Bregman has been red hot recently with an elite average distance of 251 feet over his past 13 games. He also owns positive differentials in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, so he’s been hitting it both hard and far.
Other Batters
Aaron Hicks is a switch-hitter but has historically fared much better as a righty. He’s crushed lefties to the tune of a .384 wOBA and .261 ISO over the past 12 months, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits today against Braves left-hander Sean Newcomb. Hicks also owns one of the top distance differentials at +41 feet and is projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Yankees.
If you’re looking for some exposure to Coors Field, consider Brandon Belt. He’s on the positive side of his splits against Rockies right-hander Antonio Senzatela, and Belt has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.79 when facing a right-hander away from San Francisco. That number increases to +3.20 specifically at Coors Field, and Belt’s $3,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
The Dodgers exploded for 17 runs on Monday, and Chris Taylor chipped in with three singles, two runs batted in and one run scored. He was due for some progression, and that could continue today. He’s posted a distance of 263 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 36% over his past 11 games, resulting in an RBBL of +84 on DraftKings.
Good luck, and make sure you check out The Action Network for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Alex Bregman
Photo credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
