NFL DFS Leverage Picks on DraftKings for Week 8

Sunday’s main slate for Week 8 features 11 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 8.

Specifically, I will be focusing on ownership projections and leverage scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.

Note: These leverage scores can also change as projected ownership and projections change throughout the weekend.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack

Lamar Jackson ($6,800) + Zay Flowers ($7,200) + DJ Moore ($5,700)

Jackson (ankle) has practiced in full every day this week, setting up his return for this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Bills. Jackson has been ultra-efficient when he has played this season, ranking second in DraftKings points per dropback (0.75). Jackson opened his season with 28.9 DraftKings points vs. the Colts, scored 20.4 DraftKings points vs. the Cowboys in Week 3, and was well on his way to a huge performance vs. the Titans in Week 4, scoring 18.9 DraftKings points in the first half before being ruled out at halftime.

Jackson is tied for first in yards per pass (10.1), and he has thrown six touchdowns to just one pick in 3.5 games of action. On the ground, Jackson has rushed 19 times for 144 yards and a touchdown with five of his carries coming in the red zone.

With the ankle injury finally behind him, Jackson should flourish against this Bills defense that is giving up the fourth-most passing touchdowns this season (15). This game’s total is tied for the highest on the slate (54.5 points), and Flowers should feast with Jackson back at quarterback.

Flowers exploded for 30.7 DraftKings points vs. the Bengals with Jackson inactive this past Sunday. In the three games he has played with Jackson starting, Flowers has scored 29, 15.4, and 28.8 DraftKings points and is averaging a godly 0.82 DraftKings points per snap. For perspective, Kenneth Walker and Jahmyr Gibbs are leading the NFL this season with 0.57 DraftKings points per snap.

Furthermore, Flowers is seeing a target on 41% of his routes, and he is averaging 8.0 YPRR with Jackson under center, both of which are absurd numbers. Flowers has been a fantasy cheat code with Jackson throwing him passes this season, and they should pick up right where they left off this Sunday.

On the other side, Moore (shoulder) should also have a great showing in his return. Moore has missed two straight games, but the Bills are coming off their bye, and with the extra week off, the wideout is back at practice this week. Moore got in limited sessions on both Tuesday and Wednesday, and it would be surprising if he didn’t suit up.

Moore has played two games this season when he didn’t exit early with an injury, and he produced 24 and 12.7 DraftKings points in those contests. Moore is commanding a target on 28% of his routes, and he is averaging 2.7 YPRR. Moore has seen five red-zone targets and four targets over 20 yards despite his limited action this season. The Ravens have allowed a receiver to score 18+ DraftKings points in 5-of-7 games this season, and Moore should thrive in this matchup.

While Flowers is going to be a popular play, Jackson and Moore are slated for single-digit ownership – via our projections – so this stack should be contrarian.

NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick

Kenneth Walker ($8,800)

After being held to a season-low 9.7 DraftKings points in his return to Seattle last week, Walker is facing the Broncos this Sunday. Most DFS players are expected to look the other way, with him slated to be only around 7% owned on DraftKings, via our projections.

Walker has been a fantasy superstar this season, and getting him at such low ownership is something we need to take advantage of. Sure, Walker not tearing up the Seahawks in a revenge game last Sunday was disappointing, but this is the only time in six games this season that he hasn’t scored over 20 DraftKings points. Walker has topped 30 DraftKings points three times, and as mentioned above, he is tied with Gibbs for the most DraftKings points per snap this season (0.57).

Walker is averaging a career-high 5.8 YPC, which ranks third among all the backs who have seen 20+ carries. After being in a timeshare for most of his tenure with the Seahawks, Walker has been let off the leash with the Chiefs, averaging 20 carries per game on a 74.7% snap rate, including 27 red-zone carries in six games. As a pass catcher, Walker is running a route on 46.2% of his team’s dropbacks, and he is seeing a target on 25% of his routes.

After facing the Seahawks, who are giving up the second-fewest yards per rush this season (3.5), Walker is going against the Broncos’ defense that is allowing the ninth-most yards per rush (4.6). Conversely, Denver is giving up the sixth-fewest yards per pass (6.3). The Broncos are a run-funnel defense, and the Chiefs should rely on Walker heavily in this spot. The back should bounce back with a big fantasy score and is an elite way to gain leverage on the field this week.

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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick

Germie Bernard ($4,900)

After bursting on the scene with 14.4 DraftKings points vs. the Colts and 25.7 DraftKings points vs. the Buccaneers, Bernard hit a wall and only scored 5.7 DraftKings points vs. the Saints this past Sunday. One would assume the rookie’s role was cut back, but that wasn’t the case at all.

In fact, Bernard ran a route on a season-high 94.1% of dropbacks, which led the Steelers. The second-round pick out of Alabama is a full-time player for Pittsburgh, and this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on Bernard, with our projections slating him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.

Bernard is garnering a target on a team-high 25% of his routes, and he is averaging 1.9 YPRR the last three weeks. Bernard has seen four red-zone targets over this span, and while he is facing a Browns defense that is giving up the 10th-fewest yards per pass this season (6.5), Cleveland is susceptible to receivers, allowing the eighth-most touchdowns to the position (7). Bernard should have a rebound performance in this spot, possibly with his second career touchdown.

NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick

T.J. Hockenson ($4,600)

At tight end this week, most are either going to pay all the way up for Trey McBride or go the cheaper route with Mark Andrews or Brenton Strange. Hockenson is going to get lost in the shuffle – our projections are slating him for 5% ownership on DraftKings – and he gets the league’s best matchup for tight ends, going against his former team, the Lions.

Detroit is surrendering the most catches (56), yards (602), and touchdowns to tight ends this season (10). The Lions have allowed at least one tight end to score 13+ DraftKings points in every game this season. In total, eight different tight ends have reached 13 DraftKings points vs. Detroit in just seven games, peaking with 23.5 DraftKings points from Kenyon Sadiq in Week 3. Tight ends have been automatic vs. the Lions, and I don’t expect this trend to stop with Hockenson.

Hockenson is handling an 18.9% target share this season, which ranks second for the Vikings behind only Justin Jefferson and is the sixth-highest rate among tight ends. Hockenson is also averaging 2.1 YPPR, which ranks eighth at his position. Hockenson has seen seven red-zone targets, and he has scored at least 13 DraftKings points in 3-of-6 games.

This game’s total is tied for the second-highest on the slate (46.5 points), and Hockenson has the upside to score 20 DraftKings points in this beautiful spot.

Pictured: Lamar Jackson
Photo Credit: Imagn Images