Patriots vs. Bears DFS Picks: Best TNF Predictions Today

The Patriots visit the Bears this evening for a Thursday Night Football clash at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Both teams arrive with 4 wins and 2 losses, and come off wins in Week 6. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, A.J. Brown, and Colston Loveland lead a star-studded NFL matchup tonight. I break down every one of my Patriots vs. Bears DFS picks below for you to tail today, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026.

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Patriots vs. Bears DFS Picks on Underdog Today

This table lists my four Patriots vs. Bears DFS picks, the Underdog line for each, and the stat that drives every one of these NFL DFS predictions:

Player	Pick	Line	Key Stat
Drake Maye (NE)	Lower	248.5 passing yards	215.3 yards per road game
Drake Maye (NE)	Higher	1.5 passing TDs	10 TD passes in 3 games
Luther Burden III (CHI)	Higher	55.5 receiving yards	60.2 yards per game
Colston Loveland (CHI)	Lower	39.5 receiving yards	29.2 yards per game

Patriots DFS Picks: Drake Maye Twice

My first two Patriots vs. Bears DFS picks both target Maye, who is on a three-game heater after a bad start to his season. The bullets below show why I fade his yards and back his touchdowns:

Maye Lower Than 248.5 Passing Yards

• Maye averages 243.8 passing yards per game, which already sits under the line.
• Maye throws for 215.3 yards per road game and 272.3 per home game.
• He drops to 6.8 yards per attempt away from home and throws six of his seven interceptions there.
• Chicago owns 17 sacks, tied for fifth in the NFL. New England’s line arrives banged up after three linemen left the Jets game with injury.

Maye Higher Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

• Maye has thrown 10 touchdown passes over his last three games, including three against the Jets.
• The Bears have given up five passing touchdowns over their last two games with no interceptions.
• Chicago ranks 14th in pass defense in terms of yardage allowed.

Bears DFS Picks: Burden Up, Loveland Down

My last two Patriots vs. Bears DFS picks target Chicago pass catchers, where volume and matchup point in opposite directions. Burden gets the targets, and Loveland does not.

Burden Higher Than 55.5 Receiving Yards

• Burden leads Chicago with 31 catches for 361 yards, a 60.2 yard average.
• He caught all 8 of his targets for 95 yards last week with Caleb Williams back.
• He owns 8 red zone targets, double Rome Odunze’s total.
• New England has surrendered 40 or more yards to eight different receivers over four games, plus five touchdowns to wideouts.

Loveland Lower Than 39.5 Receiving Yards

• Loveland totals 175 yards in six games, a 29.2 average.
• He has been held below 40 yards in four of six games.
• He draws 5.0 targets per game, a 15.5% target share, and gains just 9.2 yards per catch.
• His 6 catch, 65 yard game last week is the outlier, and he averages 22 yards across the five games before it.
• New England holds opposing tight ends under 44 combined yards in four of six games.

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