Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Brock Bowers ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Bowers was expected to take over as the top tight end in fantasy this season. While his season debut was delayed until Week 3, he has done exactly that. He’s scored a touchdown in each of his first three outings, and he’s added 100+ receiving yards in two of them. As a result, he’s averaged better than 26.0 DraftKings points per game.
Bowers has easily the best usage at tight end. He’s posted a 29% target share, resulting in double-digit targets in all three games. He also leads all tight ends with a 35% air yards share, so his targets are coming further downfield than the typical tight end. He’s also racked up 57% of the Raiders’ end zone targets, so he’s checking all the boxes for fantasy purposes.
Bowers also benefits from an elite matchup in Week 6. As good as the Bills’ offense has been, their defense has been equally horrendous. They’re 30th in EPA per play defensively, and they’ve played in a bunch of high-scoring affairs to start the year. This game is not expected to be an exception, with the total currently sitting at 53.5 points.
Bowers is the most expensive option at the position, and he has the top raw projections. However, his price tag doesn’t stop him from also being a great value. He’s first at TE in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 3 on DraftKings.
Isaiah Likely ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
Likely continues to be a clear focal point in one of the most condensed passing attacks in football. Both he and Malik Nabers have target shares of at least 30%, and both have turned in some huge performances.
Likely has responded with a positive Plus/Minus in three of his first five outings, and he just narrowly missed in a fourth. He’s racked up at least 27.8 DraftKings points in two of them, so he’s provided an elite ceiling as well.
Likely gets to take advantage of a fantastic opponent in Week 6. He’s taking on the Saints, who are near the bottom of the league in most defensive metrics. They’ve also allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Likely’s price tag continues to creep up, but he still stands out as an excellent value across the industry. He’s first at the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
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Trey McBride ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
While McBride has fallen behind Bowers in the TE pecking order, he’s still been really freaking good in his own right. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his first five games, including 21.6 DraftKings points last week vs. the Lions.
In terms of utilization, McBride trails only Bowers. He has a 29% target share and 29% end zone share so far this season, and those numbers might increase with Marvin Harrison Jr. no longer in town. After McBride and Michael Wilson, there aren’t a ton of options for Jacoby Brissett to lean on. That’s even more true than usual this week with Jeremiyah Love out of the picture.
The Cardinals are expected to be playing from behind vs. the Rams, and they’re the largest underdogs of the week at 12.5 points. While that’s not great for McBride’s touchdown potential, it does mean he should be locked into double-digit targets for the sixth straight week.
Tyler Warren ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
Warren quietly has been a consistent source of fantasy production this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five games on FanDuel, where he remains underpriced at just $5,700. His price tag comes with a 99% Bargain Rating.
Warren is coming off his best game last week, finishing with nine targets, seven receptions, and 83 yards. He’ll look to build on that success vs. the Titans, who are dead last in terms of pass defense EPA this season. They’ve been worse against receivers than tight ends, but it’s still a favorable matchup.
Warren ultimately ranks fourth on this slate in both projected Plus/Minus and SimLabs optimal lineup rate. He’s yet to go off for a ceiling game this season, but this could be the spot that it happens. The fact that the Colts are dealing with a bunch of injuries at receiver only increases the probability.
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Hunter Henry ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
The Patriots could be getting a big boost at receiver this week, with A.J. Brown questionable to suit up for the first time since Week 1. Brown figures to be a target hog, so his presence would be a clear downgrade for the rest of the pass-catchers in New England.
That said, Henry’s role would probably be least impacted. If anything, it’s possible that Brown’s return would be a good thing. It would make the Patriots’ offense more productive, which should lead to more touchdown opportunities. That’s where Henry does most of his damage.
He stands out as one of the more undervalued options at the position this week. He’s projected for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings, and he has the second-largest discrepancy between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership.
Travis Kelce ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
Kelce is clearly on the backside of his career, but you wouldn’t know it with how he’s played this season. He hasn’t commanded the same volume as he did in his prime, but he’s been really efficient to start the year. He’s averaged 11.2 yards per target with two touchdowns, and he’s currently TE6 in terms of 0.5-PPR points per game.
Kelce might be forced into a bit more volume this week. The Chiefs are going to be without Rashee Rice, who has been the team’s top receiver over the past few seasons. His target share has been just 14% through the first handful of weeks, but his absence is still going to create additional opportunities for the rest of the team’s pass-catchers.
The Chiefs are also listed as 7.5-point favorites vs. the Chargers, and Kelce has historically done good work as a big favorite. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.81 when the Chiefs are laying at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).
Harold Fannin ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Fannin loses a bit of steam with the news that KC Concepcion will suit up after suffering a concussion last week. That said, he still grades out as a strong option. He ranks second at the position in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and no TE has a larger discrepancy between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership in Sim Labs.
Pictured: Trey McBride
Photo Credit: Imagn
