Sunday’s main slate for Week 6 features 10 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 6.
Specifically, I will be focusing on ownership projections and leverage scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Note: These leverage scores can also change as projected ownership and projections change throughout the weekend.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Jacoby Brissett ($5,800) + Trey McBride ($7,200) + Puka Nacua ($8,100)
The Cardinals and Rams are going head-to-head in Los Angeles on Sunday, and this game should be a full-blown shootout. Both these teams rank top-10 in pace and in PROE, and this contest’s total is the second-highest on the slate (51.5 points).
Nacua is going to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, but both Brissett and McBride are expected to get overlooked and could come with single-digit ownership despite this elite game setting. Why? Because people are scared of the Rams’ defense, but quite frankly, they shouldn’t be. Los Angeles’ defense has underachieved this season, ranking 16th in EPA per play. Combine that with the Rams’ fast pace, and Los Angeles is giving up the fifth-most DraftKings points per dropback to quarterbacks.
3-of-5 quarterbacks to face the Rams have scored 22+ DraftKings points, including Bo Nix, who scored 25.1 DraftKings points in Week 3 despite having a terrible season. Brissett has posted 25+ DraftKings points in two of his last three starts, and he should put up another strong score vs. the Rams.
Brissett is only averaging 5.6 YPA, but he has thrown nine touchdowns to five picks, and he has been active with his legs, rushing the ball 17 times in five games, including four red-zone attempts.
The Rams have been the best team in the NFL at defending tight ends this season, giving up the fewest catches (14) and yards to the position (98). But McBride isn’t your typical tight end, and he is a matchup-proof player. With 18.2 DraftKings PPG, McBride is easily the No. 1 scoring tight end, and he is the No. 18 scoring skill player in the NFL.
McBride is leading the Cardinals with a 26.5% target share, and he ranks fourth in the league in red-zone targets (13), but he has only scored two touchdowns. More scores are coming for McBride, and his 69.7% slot rate this season suggests that a touchdown or two is a strong possibility for him vs. the Rams, as Los Angeles is yielding the fourth-most touchdowns to players who line up in the slot (four).
Rostering Nacua as a bring-back play on the other side of Brissett-McBride stacks is a no-brainer in this likely shootout. Nacua has been incredible since returning from a two-game absence due to a hip injury, scoring 30.7 DraftKings points vs. the Eagles and 40.7 DraftKings points vs. the Bills.
Nacua leads the NFL with a massive 33.8% target share, and he is averaging 2.9 YPRR. Nacua has already seen nine red-zone targets and seven targets over 20 yards in just three games, and he should feast vs. a Cardinals defense that is allowing the most yards per pass (8.5) and most touchdowns to receivers (10).
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Bucky Irving ($6,200)
Irving is coming off a career-best 34.5 DraftKings points vs. the Cowboys, and he has been very impressive this season. Irving is averaging 5.3 YPC, and he owns a 54.5% rushing success rate, both of which rank top-12 among the backs who have seen 10+ carries. At his position, Irving ranks 10th in DraftKings points per snap (0.42).
Many expected Kenny Gainwell to steal work from Irving this season after Gainwell signed a two-year, $14 million deal to join the Buccaneers this offseason, but that has been far from the case. Irving is handling 75.5% of the running back carries for Tampa Bay, and he is logging 61% of the snaps. Irving is averaging 15.4 carries per game, and he has seen 12 red-zone attempts.
In the passing game, Irving is running a route on 44% of his team’s dropbacks, and he is garnering a target on 22% of his routes, including four red-zone targets.
Irving destroyed the Cowboys for 175 yards and two touchdowns on 23 touches last week in a great road win for the Buccaneers. He is back home this Sunday against the Steelers, who rank 11th in pace and 22nd in defensive EPA per play.
While we can’t expect another outing over 30 DraftKings points, Irving should have a strong performance vs. the Steelers, and over 20 DraftKings points is within reach. Plus, many DFS players aren’t going to be on him, with our projections putting Irving at only around 6% ownership on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Jalen Coker ($5,900)
Coker (quad) missed last week, but he has been a full participant at practice this week and will return for this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Eagles. Coker has been outstanding this season, but he is expected to get slept on coming off the injury, making this an awesome time to attack the receiver. Our projections have him at around 8% ownership on DraftKings this week.
Coker ranks eighth among receivers in DraftKings points per snap (0.41). He scored 36.8 and 14.6 DraftKings points in his first two games of the season before getting injured in Week 3, when he logged only 36.4% of the snaps.
Coker is commanding a target on 26% of his routes, and he is averaging 2.6 YPRR, both of which lead the Panthers, excluding Jonathan Brooks, who has only played 33 snaps this season. Despite only playing in about 2 1/4 games, Coker has seen nine red-zone targets and seven targets over 20 yards.
46% of Coker’s routes have come from the slot, which is excellent news with the Eagles up next. Philadelphia is giving up the second-most catches (44), third-most yards (554), and third-most touchdowns to players who line up in the slot (five).
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Juwan Johnson ($4,500)
After being held to just 5.6 DraftKings points vs. the Vikings last Sunday, Johnson is expected to be only around 4% owned on DraftKings this week, via our projections.
Johnson’s modest output vs. Minnesota was rather excusable, and this is a great time to buy low on the tight end. The Vikings rank first in defensive EPA per play, and they are giving up the second-fewest catches to tight ends (16). Now, Johnson faces a Giants defense that is allowing the fifth-most catches to tight ends (33).
New York has surrendered 10+ DraftKings points to a tight end in three straight games. Before being held in check by Minnesota, Johnson had scored 14.4, 10.6, 24.3, and 11.9 DraftKings points in his first four games, making him the No. 3 scoring tight end for fantasy during this time.
Johnson’s role has been immense for this Saints offense that is leading the league in pace this season. The veteran is running a route on 70% of his team’s dropbacks, and he is seeing a target on 19% of his routes, including nine red-zone targets, three of which he has converted into scores.
This Saints vs. Giants matchup has shootout potential, with the game’s 45.5-point total ranking fourth-highest on the slate. Johnson brings much better upside than his cheap salary suggests.
Pictured: Jacoby Brissett
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
