NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 6

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

With five weeks of data under our belt, we now have matchup-adjusted figures. One effect of that is that it smoothes the data at the edges — the highs aren’t quite as high and the lows aren’t quite as low. The bigger impact, though, is that the data is considerably more reliable as a measure of per-play efficiency, making it more useful for DFS.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Los Angeles Rams OL (#1 in Adjusted Line Yards, #5 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals DL

Fresh off a 34-37 loss in which Matthew Stafford ($6,400) dropped back 54 times, the Rams’ passing offense is once again in a good spot. The Cardinals have actually generated slightly more sacks than last week’s opponent, the Bills, but the Rams line (and/or Stafford’s quick release) has been elite, leading to the best combined sack rate on the slate.

What might limit the upside is the game script, with the Rams 12.5-point favorites against Arizona. Stafford has attempted at least 51 passes in three straight contests, but those games were all decided by four or fewer points. In the Rams’ prior two games, he threw just 56 times combined.

That makes Stafford an interesting tournament play if you can find a Cardinals piece worth stacking him with. The sneaky answer might be Arizona’s run game, which projects fairly well from an offensive line standpoint. Of course, the game script and frustratingly split backfield make that harder, and we always have Trey McBride ($7,200) as a bring-back for Stafford stacks.

New York Giants OL (#3 in Adjusted Line Yards) vs. New Orleans Saints DL

The Giants offensive line continues to show a stark split between their run blocking and pass blocking, with one of the best adjusted line yards spots on the slate and a bottom-third adjusted sack rate. Of course, that might just be further evidence that sacks are largely a QB stat, with Jameis Winston ($5,100) taking way more sacks than Jaxson Dart would’ve.

Either way, this could be an ideal spot for Cam Skattebo ($5,800) against a Saints defense that ranks 32nd in adjusted line yards allowed. They also have allowed a +5 Opponent Plus/Minus and rank 32nd in points allowed to running backs. Given Skattebo’s price and the close game script, this might be as good a spot as we get for him all year.

He’s fairly dependent on game script (and touchdowns), so a game where the Giants have some overall offensive success correlates heavily with his results. Keep that in mind if you build rosters around him.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Baltimore Ravens DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns OL

Cleveland taking eight sacks last week has a pretty significant impact on our data and is reflected in both of our defensive picks this week. The premium option is Baltimore ($3,200), who have had a mediocre pass rush with ten sacks and a 20th-place ranking in adjusted sack rate but get a huge matchup upgrade this week.

The Browns have given up the most sacks in the NFL this year despite ranking 16th in pass play rate. As 5.5-point underdogs, they’ll likely have to be somewhat pass-heavy this week, giving the Ravens a chance to attack the quarterback.

Given the matchup and game script, $3,200 is a fairly reasonable price. It could be the perfect time to buy low on a unit that has underperformed from a fantasy perspective so far this year after earning top-ten preseason rankings in overall defense (per Anderson) and defensive line (per PFF).

New York Jets DL (#4 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots OL

The other side of last week’s slaughter of Deshaun Watson is a massive boost in the stats for the Jets ($2,200), the defense that picked up those eight sacks. They’re now tied for third in both sacks and adjusted sack rate through five games.

The Patriots are obviously a tougher matchup than Cleveland, but they aren’t especially difficult. New England ranks 20th in adjusted sack rate and has also struggled with turnovers. Their average of 2.2 giveaways per game is second-worst in the league, better than only the Chargers.

The Jets being underdogs of more than a touchdown means the game script could turn against us here. Still, they have tremendous upside relative to their price point and a reasonable enough floor, making them a great budget DFS option in all contest types.

Picture: Matthew Stafford, Rams offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn