We’ve got another 13-game slate for Week 3 on the NFL season, with the standard 1:00 p.m. ET lock time.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,700) Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. New England Patriots (48.5 Total)
Josh Allen comes into Week 4 tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns after scoring two in each of his first three games. That is likely an unsustainable rate for the fantasy QB1, but it still speaks to his dual-threat ability and penchant for racking up points. The question in Week 4 becomes how much Allen is utilized as a runner, as he and the Bills are favored by roughly a touchdown against the rival Patriots.
Allen has a relatively stable passing floor, as the Bills will keep the ball in his hands long enough to build a lead. The difference between his solid games and elite ones comes down to his rushing production. Five of his six rushing touchdowns this season have come in the red zone, with all five considered goal-line carries by FTN.
My concern is that the Bills may want to limit the wear and tear on their MVP while playing with a lead. That game script would probably materialize through Allen’s arm, so he’s very unlikely to post a bad score. However, he might not have the same massive ceiling if the game script doesn’t cooperate. That is all to say that I’m not viewing Allen as a priority this week – he’s a strong bet for a score in the mid-20s, but unless the Patriots offense improves, it’s hard to see him being a slate-breaker.
Of course, the Bills defense is questionable, so if you can find any New England bring-backs you feel good about, rostering Allen makes a lot of sense. Given his rushing production, rostering him probably doesn’t require a stack, which also helps with roster construction. For cash games, it would be nice to get up to Allen, but it’s hard to clear the salary without considerable concessions elsewhere.
Value: Trevor Lawrence ($5,900) Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (51.5 Total)
One of the reasons I’m not prioritizing getting to Allen in cash games is the presence – and price tag – of Trevor Lawrence. The Jags passing attack has a dream game script as a slight underdog in the highest-total game of the week. That should increase Lawrence’s pass rate, and he has yet to clear 30 attempts in a game this season.
He’s been remarkably efficient, though, throwing for seven touchdowns despite limited opportunities, tied for fifth in the NFL. If he can maintain anything close to that touchdown rate, his current top-10 mark in yards per attempt, or both, he’d be a massive asset relative to his price tag.
The challenge here comes down to what we make of the Bengals defense. The much-maligned unit started the season strong but gave up 30 points against the Steelers last week. The market has given this game the highest total on the slate by a solid margin and the Jags a healthy 24.5-point implied total. That is enough to feel reasonably confident about Lawrence’s chances.
He’s the top cash-game QB by virtue of his slate-high Pts/Sal projection. Even one of his lower-end games would likely be enough to keep you competitive in cash games at his salary.
Quick Hits
Joe Burrow ($6,800): The other side of the slate’s best game features Burrow, whose Bengals trail the Bills by half a point for the highest implied total on the slate. Burrow is always an elite tournament option thanks to his concentrated target tree, with his top two receivers accounting for about two-thirds of his passing yards and touchdowns this season. Deciding which of the two receivers – or whether to play both – to stack with Burrow is always the challenge, but that’s what multi-entry play is for. You can easily cover every combination, up to and including their tight end, with a handful of lineups.
Brock Purdy ($6,700): Purdy quietly leads the NFL in passing touchdowns this season and has added one on the ground, but he is $1,000 cheaper than the only QB (Allen) to outscore him in fantasy points. The matchup against a good Broncos defense is tough, but the game environment is solid, with the 49ers favored by 2.5 points at home. That makes Purdy stacks a viable tournament option this week.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,000): Volume and opportunity drive DFS success, and Brissett ranks in the top five in pass attempts per game early this season for the 0-3 Cardinals. The offense is picking up a bit, and it’s a great matchup against a Giants team that lost Brian Burns from its defensive line. I have my concerns about how aggressive the Cardinals will need to be, given the Giants’ awful offense, but he’s a reasonable pivot from Lawrence if you need an even cheaper cash-game option.
Jalon Daniels ($4,400): Daniels is stepping in for the injured Baker Mayfield this week and beyond, becoming the first rookie to start an NFL game in 2026. He’s extremely cheap and ran an 85th-percentile 40-yard dash at the Combine, so he potentially brings some rushing upside. Plus, Tampa has a talented group of wide receivers, making Daniels an interesting punt at a near-minimum salary with effectively 0 projected ownership.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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