The PGA TOUR is gearing up for the Presidents Cup next week by starting the eight FedExCup Fall tournaments with a brand new event, hosted in Asheville, North Carolina. It will be the PGA TOUR’s first stop at the Jack Nicklaus-designed course at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove and its first event in Asheville since 1942.
The field includes seven players warming up for the Presidents Cup, while the rest of the players are trying to improve their status on the PGA TOUR for next season. At the end of the FedExCup Fall, the top 100 will earn full-time membership and exemption. The top 50 are already locked in (from the FedExCup Playoffs), but spots 51-60 will also earn more opportunities in big events early next season via the Aon Next 10. Players will be trying to move into those critical spots throughout the events before the end of the year. For more info on the field, the format, and the course for this week, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
Especially in large-field tournaments, you’ll want to target players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance suggests. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for tournament success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week to week than a hot putter.
Since these are tournament picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for tournament play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Also available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Pick
Doug Ghim $10,000
For the FedExCup Fall, we’ll focus on just one pick in each price range, and at the bottom of the section, we’ll list out a few more plays that stand out in that price bracket. This week, Doug Ghim has the highest SimLeverage in the field due to an ownership projection of under 12%.
Ghim has the fifth-highest Perfect% in the field, but the public seems to identify him as being overpriced since he’s usually at the value end of things. His salary is much higher this week because there are no big names in the field, leaving him with the fifth-best odds to win and to finish in the top 10, according to Vegas.
Ghim is tied for the most Pro Trends in the field and rolls in with good recent form. He has outperformed salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 events, and he’s coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Rocket Classic and the Wyndham Championship just before the playoffs.
Over the last six months, Ghim ranks second in the field in SG:T2G and is also in the top five in Total Strokes Gained and SG:OTT. His putting is really the only area of his game that has held him back and kept him from claiming his first career PGA TOUR win.
Ghim starts the FedExCup Fall at No. 93 in the Standings and will be trying to secure his full-time card for next season with a strong push to the end of the year. The 30-year-old has six top-25 finishes in his 18 events this season, highlighted by a pair of T6 finishes at the John Deere Classic and the Zurich Classic.
Since we don’t have a great course profile for the new tournament on a new golf course, the best plan is to rely on players with strong overall tee-to-green games like Ghim’s. Based on his ownership projections, he’ll be a strong leverage option this week in Asheville.
Other High-Priced Picks from the Model: Jacob Bridgman ($10,300), Davis Thompson ($9,700), Benjamin James ($9,500)
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Pick
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