UFC Noche DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Silva vs. Delgado, More Saturday Fights

The UFC brings its annual celebration of Mexican culture to Glendale, Arizona, this weekend for UFC Noche. Featuring an impromptu, but compelling, main event between Jean Silva and Jose Delgado, the 13-fight card features plenty of Mexican or Mexican-American standouts.

It’s another early start time at 2:00 p.m. ET, so be sure to have your lineups ready to go early.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in the UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Jean Silva ($9,300) vs. Jose Delgado ($6,900)

With original dance partner Yair Rodriguez forced to pull out with an injury, Jean Silva now headlines his second straight Noche event against Jose Delgado. Delgado makes a lot of sense from a promotional standpoint as both a Mexican-American and an Arizona native. He also makes for a compelling matchup thanks to his 4-1 UFC record. While it’s a step back in the rankings compared to most of Silva’s recent opponents, Delgado is still a legitimate challenge.

The stance-switching Delgado has four inches of height and reach on Silva, tools that Delgado typically uses well. In his last fight, Silva was hurt by strikes at range from Arnold Allen, who picked the Brazilian apart with straight shots from a southpaw stance. Silva ultimately won that fight by creating bigger moments in close quarters and mixing in some grappling, and we could see a similar dynamic here.

I expect Delgado to have some success early, but I worry about his cardio in an extended fight. Staying out of Silva’s range is fairly taxing from a cardio standpoint, and this is also Delgado’s first five-round fight in the UFC. Add in the short-notice nature of the assignment, and I could see Delgado fading considerably in the second half of the bout.

However, that gives both men considerable scoring potential. Delgado piling up strikes for a round or two before being finished is probably enough to justify his salary, while a later Silva finish with decent striking/grappling volume before then would also lead to a solid score. For that reason, I’m stacking this one in cash games and potentially a small portion of my tournament lineups.

The Easy Chalk

Tommy Gantt ($9,400)

Tommy Gantt gets a huge step up for his second UFC fight, taking on veteran Drakkar Klose ($6,800), who is 10-3 in the UFC and has been with the promotion since 2017. The UFC is looking to fast-track Gantt, as the Daniel Cormier protege is old for a prospect at 33 but has flashed enough potential that the UFC wants to give him a shot before he passes his prime.

While I expect Klose to keep things close, Gantt is a fighter who can have a great DFS fight without dominating the actual contest. The former D1 All-American wrestler is averaging over 11 takedowns per 15 minutes so far in the UFC/Contender Series, with Klose likely to be in the sweet spot of being able to scramble back to his feet but unable to stop takedowns entirely.

The market is giving Gantt -185 odds to win inside the distance, and while that feels a bit generous by my estimation, not finishing the fight might be the better outcome if it means Gantt can pile up takedowns. Klose has solid but not elite takedown defense at 69% in the UFC and is probably slowing down a bit at 38 years old.

It’s tough to choose between the three fighters priced above Silva on the slate, but Gantt feels like the safest option as the only dedicated takedown artist of the group.

The Upside Plays

Yousri Belgaroui ($9,700)

The slate’s most expensive fighter is decidedly not a takedown artist, with Yousri Belgaroui getting into MMA late following a successful pro kickboxing career that included multiple fights with both Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya. Belgaroui is now 2-0 in the UFC with consecutive third-round finishes and is being given probably the softest matchup of his career after beating promising prospects in his first two fights.

This time, the opponent is Djorden Santos ($6,500), who replaced Kelvin Gastelum on somewhat short notice. Santos is 1-2 in the UFC, with that win coming against former welterweight Danny Barlow in his first middleweight fight. He’s absorbed at least 93 significant strikes in each of his UFC bouts and at least 107 in each of his losses.

That’s despite not facing a striker nearly as accomplished as Belgaroui, who almost certainly would land a knockout blow before getting to 90+ strikes landed. While his finishes have come late in the UFC/Contender Series, he has a massive height, reach, and speed advantage against Santos, which should allow him to pour it on early.

How early is ultimately what determines whether he will make it into the optimal lineup. Belgaroui probably needs a first-round finish to get there but could potentially pile up enough volume that a later finish also works. He’s a solid pay-up option if you can find enough value elsewhere to squeeze him in.

Ignacio Bahamondes ($9,500)

The other premium fighter this week is Ignacio Bahamondes, who moves up to welterweight after an extended run as one of the most oversized lightweights on the roster. The 6’3″ Bahamondes has plenty of size for welterweight, and a less drastic weight cut will hopefully allow him to perform at his best after a pair of losses at lightweight.

He’s getting a very soft welcome to 170 lbs in the form of Muslim Salikhov ($6,700). Salikhov is perennially underrated but is also 42 years old and coming off a bad knockout loss in his last fight. Salikhov is almost certainly slowing down at this point and has been knocked out three times in the last four years, with each one taking a toll on his chin.

Bahamondes has plenty of power and is also a dangerous submission artist. The latter part is important because Salikhov will often shoot for takedowns if he’s hurt. Bahamondes excelling at front chokes makes shooting at range dangerous for Salikhov and gives Bahamondes multiple paths to finishing this fight.

He probably doesn’t have quite as much volume upside as Belgaroui but has better first-round stoppage odds (+200 vs. +275), making him a similar overall play while costing $200 less. The better play is probably whoever has less ownership, though even that should be close. I’ll have exposure to both, possibly in the same lineup if I can find the salary.

The Value Play

Rafa Garcia ($7,700)

Rafa Garcia may not be the most obvious value play, with two women’s fights on the card featuring better odds to go the full 15 minutes. However, Garcia has seen some slight line movement in his favor in a fight that’s slightly favored to last all three rounds but also brings some much-needed grappling upside to the equation.

He’s taking on Rongzhu ($8,500) in a somewhat binary striker vs. grappler match. Garcia averages more than three takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, while Rongzhu has knocked down two of his last three opponents. Rongzhu defends takedowns reasonably well but has mostly faced fellow strikers since returning to the UFC, with the exception of Kody Steele, who gave up on grappling after the first round.

The promising thing for Garcia here is that he’s never been dropped in the UFC. He has a knockout loss via ground and pound against Grant Dawson, but his chin is fairly solid. That might not be enough to win the fight, but if it extends the fight long enough, Garcia should get some takedown points along the way. That makes him an appealing cash game option for his floor, with some tournament appeal if he can pull off the upset.

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The Contrarian Choice

Regina Tarin ($9,100)

Regina Tarin opens the card against JJ Aldrich ($7,100) as a fairly heavy favorite, with her odds approaching -300. It’s the second UFC fight for Tarin, who stepped in on just a couple of days’ notice in Mexico City in February. Despite the tough assignment and elevation, she still landed over 100 significant strikes against Ernesta Kareckaite.

Aldrich is a step up in terms of skill but is at a significant athletic disadvantage to Tarin, a Muay Thai phenom more than 12 years her junior. If Tarin can keep this standing, she could easily improve on her significant strikes mark from her last fight, which was good enough for 84 points on DraftKings.

A few hundred dollars cheaper than the other top fighters, Tarin isn’t as dependent on a finish for her upside, though it would still probably require a finish to make the optimal lineup. I don’t think that’s entirely out of the question, though, and Tarin will be far less popular than the other expensive fighters, making her an interesting contrarian pay-up choice.

The Swing Fight

Tommy McMillen ($8,600) vs. Marwan Rahiki ($7,600)

Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki is a surprising matchup between two extremely fun prospects with 2-0 UFC records. Both are all-action strikers who have knocked out each of their first two UFC opponents and also have very little interest in defense on the feet.

McMillen has limited power but makes up for it with volume, finishing his first UFC opponent with 74 significant strikes (all in Round 1) and his next opponent with an absurd 252. Rahiki is more dynamic and explosive but has also been hurt badly himself in his UFC/DWCS run. The fight is -120 to end via knockout, with fairly close odds for both fighters.

I favor Rahiki pretty heavily in a striking match, as his superior power should make the difference in a fight with both men landing at will. However, McMillen has a strong wrestling background that he hasn’t used yet in the UFC and could turn to it if he gets clipped on the feet. However, as I mentioned in our latest UFC betting preview, I’m not sure McMillen goes that route until after he loses a UFC fight:

Still, I get the case for both fighters, given McMillen’s volume and Rahiki’s complete lack of defense. I’ll be heavier on Rahiki myself but will have 100% exposure to this fight in general.

Pictured: Jean Silva
Photo Credit: Imagn Images