Week 1 NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks

Justin Herbert ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)

Herbert has clearly been a success at the NFL level, but he hasn’t quite joined the ranks of the elite quarterbacks. He’s still looking for his first career playoff win, and his statistics have taken a slight hit over the past three years. The team has been much more balanced under Jim Harbaugh than they were in Herbert’s early years, and he’s finished as QB10 and QB12 for fantasy purposes over the past two seasons.

That said, there is clear optimism with Herbert heading into this season. He’s always had the natural talent, and he could be poised for the best year of his career with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. He helped make Tua Tagovailoa an MVP candidate, so the prospect of him working with Herbert is electrifying.

Herbert also draws a phenomenal matchup to start the year. He’s taking on the Cardinals, who figure to be one of the worst teams in football this season. They allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last year. The Chargers are the largest favorites of the week, and their 28.5 implied team total ranks first on the slate.

Herbert ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the highest median projection and third-highest ceiling projection at quarterback, so he’s an excellent combination of value and upside.

Kyler Murray ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

It feels like a make-or-break season for the former No. 1 overall pick. Murray was essentially run out of town in Arizona, and his new team will pay him just $1.3M this season. With a strong showing, he could potentially earn another lucrative contract with Minnesota. If he plays poorly, he could be forced into a backup role for the rest of his career.

Fortunately, Murray picked an excellent landing spot. Head coach Kevin O’Connell couldn’t make it work with the trifecta of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer last year, but he has a solid track record of getting the most out of his signal callers. Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold both turned in excellent seasons under O’Connell, and Murray will look to be his latest reclamation project.

Murray will also have a strong complement of weapons at his disposal. When Murray was at his best in Arizona, he had an elite No. 1 wide receiver to lean on. He’ll have that once again with Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Jordan Addison and Tyler Hockenson are solid supporting pieces, while Aaron Jones is a valuable pass-catcher out of the backfield.

Murray’s first matchup of the year will come vs. the Packers, who he’s catching at the right time. Their defense will be without Micah Parsons, and they were 0-4 and allowed more than 400 yards per game in four games without him last year. Murray ultimately ranks third on both DraftKings and FanDuel in projected Plus/Minus, and he provides a slight discount compared to Herbert.

Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks

Joe Burrow ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

Most of the top QBs in fantasy are the ones who can do damage with their legs. Burrow stands out as the clear exception. He’s an old-school gunslinger, and he’s capable of putting up monster performances with his right arm. He led the NFL in pass attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns in his last full season, and he trailed only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in terms of fantasy points per game.

Burrow still has arguably the best receiver duo in football, and he draws a phenomenal Week 1 matchup vs. the Buccaneers. They allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last season, and this game has the highest total on the slate at 50.5 points. If any game figures to turn into a shootout in Week 1, this is probably it.

That said, Burrow will have to overcome some ugly early-season splits to hit his ceiling vs. Tampa Bay. He has historically averaged a -3.2 Plus/Minus in 32 September contests. He’s ultimately averaged just 17.89 DraftKings points in those contests, compared to 22.05 in all other months (per the Trends tool).

Jared Goff ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

Goff is another QB who stands out from a Vegas standpoint. The Lions are listed as seven point favorites against the Saints, and they have the second-highest implied team total of the week (28.25 points).

The Saints were also a clear pass funnel defense last season. They were third in rush defense EPA but merely 13th vs. the pass. If the Lions offense is going to go off in this spot, there’s a good chance it’s behind Goff’s right arm.

Lamar Jackson ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)

Jackson is coming off the worst season of his career. He was limited to just 13 games played, and his production fell off a cliff. His average of 8.8 adjusted yards per pass attempt was still above-average, but it was well-below his 10.2 mark the year prior. More concerningly, his rushing production was slashed. He averaged just 26.8 rushing yards per game after averaging at least 51.3 in each of the six previous seasons.

That said, Jackson has earned the benefit of the doubt. He was clearly limited by an injury last season, so hopefully, he’ll be back to his usual self in 2026-27.

If that’s the case, $6,800 represents an excellent price tag. Before last season, Jackson had historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.49 with a comparable salary. If he can prove that last year was an outlier, this could be the cheapest we see Jackson all year.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside

Malik Willis ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

The Dolphins could be the worst team in football this season. They’re spending an unprecedented amount of money on guys who aren’t playing for them, including seven of their eight highest-paid players. That’s nearly impossible to overcome.

However, that doesn’t mean Willis doesn’t have fantasy appeal. Rushing production has always been the Konami Code for fantasy quarterbacks, and Willis brings that to the table in spades.

In Willis’ lone start last year, he piled up nine carries for 60 yards and two touchdowns. He added 288 passing yards and one score, resulting in 31.5 fantasy points. He averaged 57 rushing yards per game in two additional starts the year prior, and he added another score. As long as Willis has the green light to run, he has a much higher ceiling that his current price tag indicates.

Tyler Shough ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

I cannot lie – I am a certified Mother Shougher. He was very impressive after taking over as the Saints’ starting QB last season. He was 12th at the position in fantasy points per game from Week 9 on, and he jumped to QB6 over the final five games of the year.

Shough benefits from the same game environment as the Lions in Week 1. Detroit allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last season, making Shough a solid low-cost option with upside. He’s a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where he trails only Herbert in projected Plus/Minus.

Trevor Lawrence ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)

If Lawrence can sustain any of the momentum he showed off down the stretch last season, he could be poised for a monster year. From Week 11 on, no QB scored more fantasy points than Lawrence. It wasn’t particularly close, either: he finished with 200.1 fantasy points over his final eight games, and Matthew Stafford was second with 168.2.

Lawrence will have to navigate a tough matchup vs. the Browns, who were a fantastic defensive team last year. That said, it remains to be seen how formidable they’ll be without Myles Garrett. He’s arguably the best player in football regardless of position, and while Jared Verse is a solid replacement, there could still be a pretty significant dropoff. 

Pictured: Justin Herbert
Photo Credit: Imagn