The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Paul Skenes (R) $9,600 Pittsburgh Pirates (+111) at Milwaukee Brewers
On the rare occasions I’ve had the opportunity to write about Paul Skenes over the past month or two, it’s been difficult to find an appropriate balance. He’s massively underperformed expectations throughout most of 2026, but that’s largely a factor of how massive – and perhaps unrealistic – those expectations were. All things considered, a “down year” for the 2025 NL Cy Young winner is still elite performance.
Skenes’ ERA in 2026 is more than double the mark he finished each of the last two seasons at, and that number still starts with a three. He’s also still striking out roughly 30% of opposing hitters, one of just six qualified starters in baseball to be over that mark. His average fastball velocity is down slightly, but my read is that most of his “struggles,” so to speak, are a result of bad luck. Skenes’ BABIP jumped about 40 points compared to 2024 and 2025, and his ERA predictors remain right around 3.00, about a full run better than his actual ERA.
He does have a difficult matchup against the Brewers, a top-five offense against right-handed pitching this season. Still, while Milwaukee is favored, their 3.8-run implied total is the third-lowest on the slate, so the market is broadly bullish on Skenes. So are our projections, which have him leading all pitchers in median and ceiling projection, with a solid Pts/Sal as well.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Harrison (L) $8,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-132) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
One of the two teams with a lower total than Milwaukee is the Pirates, which also explains why Skenes is an underdog. His opponent is Kyle Harrison of Milwaukee, who is favored while also coming in at $1,100 cheaper, making him a fairly obvious value play on Wednesday.
Harrison’s numbers actually compare favorably to Skenes this season, with an ERA nearly a full run lower and a 29.6% strikeout rate that’s within a percentage point of Skenes’. The big difference here is the matchup: Pittsburgh ranks as a bottom-five team against left-handed pitching on the season, with a top-five strikeout rate. That boosts both the floor and ceiling for Harrison, since the Pirates are unlikely to put up many runs and fairly likely to strike out a ton.
On the pessimistic side, this will be Harrison’s first big-league start in about a month, as he returns from a stint on the IL due to forearm/elbow tightness. He threw 5.2 scoreless innings in a rehab start at the A+ level, though, so it seems likely that he’s at or near full strength coming into this one. He may have a bit of a shorter leash that caps his upside, but I’m not especially worried about his effectiveness.
That makes him a strong cash-game play at a minimum, with a reasonable case as a tournament play. He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Bryan Woo (R) $9,000 Seattle Mariners (-151) vs. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ 3.5-run total is just 0.1 runs away from Pittsburgh’s low-water mark, making Mariners starter Bryan Woo a solid option. Woo has an ERA in the mid-fours, but his underlying numbers are about a run better, which is especially surprising since his home games are at the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Most ERA predictors factor out the park, so we’d expect Seattle starters to outperform their ERA predictors. He’s done that at home, though, with a 2.20 ERA at T-Mobile Park, where he pitches tonight. Detroit has a quietly good lineup, but the Vegas data tells a compelling story for Woo.
Will Warren (R) $7,800 New York Yankees (-153) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The three pitchers mentioned above are currently all projecting for around 50% ownership, leaving the other 11 starters on the slate to divvy up the remaining 50% or so. That means a solid game from any of them provides a huge amount of leverage, and Will Warren is my favorite option of the group. His numbers are nothing to get excited about, with an ERA just over 4.00 and a 23% strikeout rate. The matchup is the selling point here, with St. Louis ranking 24th in wRC+ against righties. Warren is also a bit cheaper than the popular arms tonight, so rostering him gives you access to more expensive bats – making him a +EV play even without having to outscore Woo, Skenes, or Harrison himself.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the San Diego Padres:
Unfortunately, the game at Coors Field on Wednesday isn’t on the main slate, so we won’t have a free offensive square. The Padres are a pretty obvious top choice, though, as the only team implied for more than five runs on the main slate.
They’re on the road, which is always a benefit since it means guaranteed at-bats in the ninth inning. It’s even more impactful since they’re traveling from their home ballpark in San Diego (park factor of 97) to one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball in Arizona (park factor of 104).
The Padres have been below-average against lefties this season, but a combination of the park upgrade and a matchup with Mitch Bratt ($5,500) and his 5.23 ERA should be enough to overcome that, at least for as long as Bratt remains in the game. Plus, Machado, Tatis, and France all have wOBAs against lefties equal to or better than their mark against righties, so it’s not a huge downgrade for these players specifically.
Their price point makes them somewhat cumbersome if you’re playing two of the top pitchers, but they’re an excellent option to pair with Warren plus one expensive starter, which will be how I make the bulk of my rosters tonight.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Royce Lewis 1B/2B ($3,800) Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (Noah Cameron)
I wrote up Royce Lewis yesterday as one of the better plays on the slate thanks to his multi-position eligibility. He’s somehow the same price tonight, despite a four-hit performance on Monday good for 14 DraftKings points. That also came with Lewis on the weaker side of his platoon splits against a right-handed starter, whereas tonight he faces lefty Noah Cameron ($6,600).
We can see the difference for Lewis in PlateIQ:
He remains an elite play tonight.
Nick Sogard 2B ($2,600) Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox (Sean Burke)
Even if you spend down to Warren (or another similarly priced arm), it’s still somewhat challenging to fit the Padres stack tonight, making it imperative to find a cheap bat or two. One of the better options is Boston’s Nick Sogard, who is projected to lead off the Red Sox lineup at just $2,600.
Boston has a solid 4.5-run implied total, plus excellent hitting weather in their already hitter-friendly home park. Sogard isn’t exactly Barry Bonds, but there are enough external factors to make him a great play at his price point.
Trent Grisham OF ($4,300) New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Andre Pallante)
The Padres stack filling all three outfield spots means I’m not looking especially hard for outfielders, but I’m fine pivoting from Jackson Merrill in his lefty-on-lefty matchup. Going from Merrill to Trent Grisham saves $400 in salary at the cost of less than a point in median projection, while also allowing you to roster a different Padres bat elsewhere in the lineup.
Grisham has his usual leadoff spot in the Yankees’ order, with New York’s team total trailing only San Diego on the main slate. He hasn’t been great this year but he has solid hitters behind him and gets to face a righty starter in Andre Pallante ($7,000), who has struggled against lefties – which makes Grisham worth a shot in some percentage of your lineups.
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Pictured: Paul Skenes
Photo Credit: Imagn
