The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal (L) $11,000 Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) at Chicago Cubs
It was extremely strange typing “Los Angeles Dodgers” instead of “Detroit Tigers” after this entry on Skubal. The reigning two-time AL Cy Young award winner was traded from Detroit to Los Angeles on Saturday and makes his first start with his new team in Chicago tonight. The Dodgers got arguably the best pitcher in baseball in the deal, as 2026 marks the fourth consecutive season where Skubal has a sub-3.00 ERA and 30%+ strikeout rate, should those numbers hold.
He’s having a slightly down year by his standards, with his 2.79 ERA and 2.98 xERA both his highest since 2023. Most of that, though, was caused by the late-spring injury that saw Skubal undergo minor surgery and miss about a month – his ERA in July was just 2.03. We’ll see if he can maintain that into August and beyond with his new team.
The setup in his Dodgers debut couldn’t be much worse, though. The Cubs are the best team in baseball against lefties by wRC+, and they strike out at a slightly below-average rate. Plus, the weather at Wrigley boosts scoring more than 20% over a robust 168-game sample size.
Still, our projections account for that, with Skubal’s median projection a bit more than 10% below his average DFS scoring this season. Even with that adjustment, he’s still the leader in median and ceiling projection tonight, though he comes with correspondingly high ownership that makes him a fade in larger tournaments for me.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Mackenzie Gore (L) $7,800 Texas Rangers (-202) vs. San Francisco Giants
The only pitcher projecting to be higher owned than Skubal tonight is Gore, who has a massive lead in Pts/Sal projection and is the clear best value on the slate. The Vegas odds make it clear why – the Giants are implied for fewer runs than the Dodgers, with the Rangers essentially equally heavy favorites.
Gore is obviously no Skubal, but the situation is much more favorable. The Giants have a 91 wRC+ against lefties, a bottom-ten mark, while striking out a bit more than the Cubs. Globe Life Park in Texas is the second-best pitcher’s park in baseball, cutting scoring by 6% on average. Plus, the Giants traded away one of their best hitters, Luis Arraez, to the Phillies at the deadline.
Gore was a prime regression candidate even without those factors, with his 4.77 ERA essentially a full run higher than his underlying metrics. Given all the external factors, we should see him perform much closer to his true abilities than his inflated ERA suggests. There’s an ownership-based case for fading him, but at his salary, he’s pretty clearly the best overall play at pitcher tonight.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Troy Melton (R) $9,800 Detroit Tigers (+119) at Seattle Mariners
With the departure of both Skubal and Casey Mize, the Tigers’ current “ace” might just be Troy Melton. He’s pitched like one in his limited action this season, with a 1.75 ERA and 23.1% strikeout rate through 11 starts. He’s impressively averaged over six innings per appearance, which is noteworthy since he was primarily a reliever last season. The Mariners are a below-average matchup, but this game is in Seattle, with the best park factor for pitchers in the MLB, which makes Melton a viable contrarian option.
Jared Jones (R) $7,600 Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) at Milwaukee Brewers
After showing a lot of promise as a rookie in 2024, Jared Jones missed all of 2025 and the first two months of this season with an injury. He had a rough first month or so of action, giving up 12 runs in his first 17.1 innings of the year, but he’s allowed just 10 runs in his last 30+ innings while striking out at least five in each of his last five appearances. The matchup with Milwaukee is less than optimal, but he’s a strong pivot from Gore for larger tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
The Rays lived up to the hype last night in Colorado, roughly doubling their slate-high team total with 13 runs in a win over the Rockies. Their DFS salaries have risen a bit following that explosion, but they’re still cheap enough to easily be the top stack on the board.
This is less of an obvious smash spot than last night, when they faced arguably the worst starter in baseball, Michael Lorenzen, as they take on rookie Gabriel Hughes ($6,200) instead. Hughes has a 3.33 ERA through 24.1 big-league innings, including two of his four starts coming at home. On the flip side, he had an ERA over 5.00 in a larger sample in AAA this season, so it’s somewhat likely he’s just running hot.
Between the price increase, tougher matchup, and likely high ownership, there’s a solid case for not rostering this Tampa stack tonight – or picking a few players selectively rather than taking the whole thing. They’re still the best option on paper, but it’s a lot closer than it was last night.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Freddie Freeman 1B ($5,400) Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (Javier Assad)
My favorite stack to pivot to is the Dodgers, who – outside of Shohei Ohtani – are projecting for relatively low ownership due to their high salaries. They’re nearly impossible to play with Skubal, but given the extreme weather at Wrigley Field, fading Skubal and rostering Dodgers bats is a strongly correlated play.
Outside of the weather, they’re also taking on an opponent in Javier Assad ($7,000) who struggles against left-handed hitting, as is apparent in PlateIQ:
That’s an issue against a Dodgers lineup that features six left-handed or switch-hitting players, including Freeman.
Nathan Lukes OF ($2,900) Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros (Hayden Wesneski)
Nathan Lukes is my obligatory “way too cheap leadoff hitter” on Tuesday’s slate, checking in at under $3,000 despite holding down the top spot in the Blue Jays’ projected lineup. Toronto is implied for a healthy 4.1 runs, which makes him a pretty clear value play – crucial if you’re trying to fit some Dodgers bats.
Lukes is hitting a solid .271 this season, though his limited power and speed give him minimal upside. Still, at his price point, a hit or two with an RBI or run thrown in is more than enough. His solid average gives him a floor at the very least, which is more than we can say about most bats in his price range.
Royce Lewis 1B/2B ($3,800) Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (Randy Dobnak)
Lewis’ eligibility at both first and second base makes him one of my favorite plays on the slate. There are plenty of solid first-base options, as is typical, but it’s pretty thin at second today. He’s the only hitter eligible as a second baseman projected for double-digit points, with a very reasonable $3,800 salary.
Lewis is a bit of an all-or-nothing option, batting just .221 but with a .406 slugging percentage. He’s likely to trend toward the upside tonight, with the Twins implied for five runs and solid hitting weather in Kansas City, making him a strong option at his price.
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Pictured: MacKenzie Gore
Photo Credit: Imagn
