The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease (R) $10,700 Toronto Blue Jays (-188) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cease was expected to improve the Blue Jays’ pitching staff after signing with them this offseason, but I don’t think anyone expected him to be this good. He started the All-Star Game for the American League, and only Cam Schlittler has better odds to win the Cy Young. He’s pitched to a 2.46 ERA with elite underlying metrics, so it’s definitely not his fault that the Blue Jays are at the bottom of the AL East standings.
Cease’s best attribute has always been strikeouts, and he’s racking them up at an elite level this year. He has 167 punchouts in 113.1 innings, and his strikeout rate puts him in the 99th percentile. He owns a massive 8.51 K Prediction on Friday, and no other pitcher is above 6.14. That gives him considerably more upside than every other starter on the slate.
Cease is also getting plenty of respect from Vegas. He leads all pitchers in both moneyline odds and opponent implied team total (3.3 runs), so he checks all the boxes for DFS purposes. He leads the slate in median and ceiling projection, while he’s second among starting pitchers in projected Plus/Minus.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Shane Drohan (L) $7,700 Milwaukee Brewers (-170) at Los Angeles Angels
The Brewers continue to punch way above their weight class from a payroll standpoint. While big budget teams outside of the Dodgers continue to struggle, the Brewers have one of the best records in baseball for the second straight year. They’ve done it despite losing Freddy Peralta from last year’s squad, who was their ace pitcher.
The Brewers have seemingly been able to conjure pitchers out of thin air, and Drohan has given them some excellent innings this season. He’s pitched to a 3.51 ERA and 3.30 xERA across 82.0 innings, and he’s added exactly one strikeout per inning pitched.
Most of Drohan’s success has come as a reliever, but there’s reason for optimism with him on Friday. He’s taking on the Angels, who are one of the best lineups to face for fantasy purposes. They have the highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitchers, while they’re 20th in the league in runs scored per game.
Drohan also benefits from playing in front of an elite defense, while the Brewers’ offense gives him plenty of win potential. He’s the second-largest favorite on the slate, with Milwaukee ranking fourth in implied team total.
He tops all pitchers in terms of projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projection set, making him a quality SP2 for cash games.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Brown (R) $9,000 Houston Astros (-131) vs. Texas Rangers
In terms of pure talent, Brown is better than his $9,000 price tag suggests. He’s been limited to just nine starts so far this season, but he’s been solid when on the bump. He’s coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, limiting the White Sox to just two hits over seven scoreless innings. Brown added seven strikeouts, and he’s an excellent strikeout pitcher when at full strength. He was in the 85th percentile for strikeout rate last season, so this is a solid buy-low opportunity.
Freddy Peralta (R) $7,300 New York Mets (-130) vs. Miami Marlins
Peralta is another potential buy-low arm. He has not had his best season with the Mets, but he’s been more “unlucky” than bad. His xERA checks in at 3.83, which is in line with his marks from his past three seasons in Milwaukee. This could be his final start in a Mets’ uniform, and it’s possible he goes out with a bang. Peralta is No. 2 in THE BAT X in projected Plus/Minus at pitcher, and he’s fourth in terms of K Prediction.
Mitch Bratt (L) $5,300 Arizona Diamondbacks (+125) at Cleveland Guardians
If you’re looking for a pure punt play at SP2, Bratt could be worth some consideration. He’ll be making just his fifth career start, and the first four haven’t exactly gone swimmingly. He enters Friday’s matchup with a 6.32 ERA, and his advanced metrics aren’t much better. However, he should be able to do better vs. the Guardians. They’re 27th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers, and they’re dead last in terms of runs per game. Bratt doesn’t bring much upside to the table, but he ranks first in THE BAT X in projected Plus/Minus. He’s also projected for less than 5% ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
Like the Mets and Blue Jays, the Royals are another team that has had a massively disappointing season. After finishing above .500 in back-to-back seasons, they currently have the third-worst record in all of baseball. They’ve done that despite having roughly the same core as last year; those players have just turned in much worse seasons.
The good news is that the Royals get to head West for a series vs. the Rockies on Friday. It goes without saying that Coors Field is great medicine for an ailing offense. It’s the friendliest hitting environment in baseball, and the Royals are implied for a healthy 5.8 runs in this contest. That’s the second-highest mark on the slate, trailing only the Tigers (5.9).
They’ll also benefit from a showdown with Tomoyuki Sugano. He has not proven to be an MLB-quality starter since arriving in the USA, and moving to Coors Field certainly hasn’t helped. He owns a dreadful 7.22 xERA while surrendering nearly two homers per nine innings.
The Royals’ offensive struggles for most of the year also means this stack is pretty affordable. Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone will set you back a bit, but the other three batters in this stack are priced at $4,300 or less. You’ll gladly take that at Coors Field.
Using Isaac Collins is an interesting differentiator for Kansas City. He’s expected to hit seventh in the lineup, which decreases his correlation with the top of the Royals’ lineup. However, he’s projected for less than 8% ownership, and he’s second on the team in wOBA vs. right-handers over the past 30 days (via Plate IQ):
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Gleyber Torres, 2B ($4,500) Detroit Tigers at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
The Tigers will be a popular team target in Sacramento on Friday. It’s one of the few hitting environments that can rival Coors Field, and it’s even friendlier from a homer standpoint. Detroit also enters this game red-hot offensively, averaging 9.33 runs over their past three games.
Torres was a big part of the Tigers’ offensive eruption two games ago, racking up a home run and five RBIs. He followed that up with another extra-base hit in their last outing.
He’ll also be on the positive side of his splits Friday vs. Springs. He hasn’t been great in limited opportunities vs. southpaws this season, but he owns a 133 wRC+ in those matchups for his career. Springs has pitched to a dreadful 6.35 FIP against right-handed batters this season while surrendering 2.58 homers per nine innings.
Overall, it doesn’t get much better from a matchup standpoint. He owns the top projected Plus/Minus among non-Royals in our blended projection set and the top overall mark among second basemen.
Nick Kurtz, 1B ($5,200) Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers (Ty Madden)
On the other side of that matchup, Kurtz could be a bit overlooked. He’s been in a bit of a slump in July, but he’s been one of the best power hitters ever since being called up by the A’s. He’s launched 57 homers in just 215 games played, and he has elite underlying metrics to back it up.
It’s only a matter of time until he gets rolling again. It could certainly happen at home vs. a right-handed pitcher, which has been Kurtz’s best split this season. He owns a 174 wRC+ in those matchups, and he’s launched eight homers in just 102 at-bats.
Cedric Mullins, OF ($3,300) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox (Erick Fedde)
Mullins has been a rare misstep for the Rays’ front office. They brought him in as a free agent, but he’s struggled to a career-worst 77 wRC+.
That said, Mullins has at least displayed some pop vs. righties. He has 13 homers in that split, including a long ball on Thursday. It’s a big reason why he’s expected to hit in the cleanup spot for the Rays on Friday.
He has some sneaky homer upside vs. Fedde for the White Sox. He’s allowed 1.76 homers per nine innings this season, and the Rays are implied for a solid 4.7 runs.
Pictured: Dylan Cease
Photo Credit: Imagn
