The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cam Schlittler (R) $10,800 New York Yankees (-145) at Chicago White Sox
We have a trio of starters today priced between $10,300 and $10,800, with the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler leading that group in terms of salary and projections. As a bit of a disclaimer, be sure to check those projections closer to game time — shifts in the Vegas lines or opponent lineups for any of these players could be enough to shake up the order when it’s this close.
Schlittler is the front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award this season, thanks to his 2.07 ERA and 30%+ strikeout rate through 22 starts. Both of those numbers are probably a bit better than they “should” be based on his underlying data, but nearly every Cy Young and MVP winner gets there with a bit of luck in their favor.
The White Sox are a slightly below-average matchup in terms of run scoring for opposing righties, but that probably doesn’t matter against an elite pitcher like Schlittler. Plus, they strike out at a high rate, contributing to Schlittler’s slate-leading K prediction.
I’m anticipating ownership fairly reasonably close between the top three pitchers on the slate, so it makes sense to pursue the upside of Schlittler if you have the extra salary. It’s also theoretically possible to roster two $10,000+ arms, which could separate lineups from the field if precisely two of them have monster games.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Hayden Wesneski (R) $7,200 Houston Astros (-135) at Los Angeles Angels
Tonight will be Wesneski’s first start since May of 2025, who underwent Tommy John surgery after making just six starts for the Astros in 2025. He was part of the package that sent Kyle Tucker to the Cubs after posting a 3.86 ERA through mixed use (starting/relieving) for Chicago in 2024.
It’s always tough to know how to project a pitcher coming off such a long layoff, especially with Tommy John surgery. If their elbow injury was leading to diminished performance pre-surgery they could come back better, or they could be rusty after such a long time away. Wesneski posted a 2.25 ERA in five minor league rehab starts this season, throwing 4.2 scoreless innings in his final start in AAA.
By all accounts, his stuff seems to be as good or better than it was pre-injury, and a return date against the Angels — a bottom-ten team in wRC+ against righties with the second-highest strikeout rate — is a good opportunity for him to get back in action. He’ll probably be limited to somewhere around 80 pitches, but that could be enough at his price tag if he’s able to get through five innings or so.
He leads all starters in Pts/Sal projection, and is a solid option to pair with any of the $10K+ pitchers.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Chris Sale (L) $10,500 Atlanta Braves (-155) at New York Mets
Sale was projecting as the top pitcher on the board yesterday, before his game against the Mets was postponed due to rain. With a 2.19 ERA and strikeout rate just under 30%, he remains one of the game’s best starters in his age-37 season, and he draws a Mets team that’s slightly below average against lefties. More importantly, they’re missing Juan Soto, who despite hitting better against right-handed pitching is still well above the team and league average against lefties. His absence elevates the matchup from average to good, and New York has the lowest team total on the slate. Sale is a rock-solid option unless you think the delay to his start disrupts his preparation enough to downgrade him.
Joe Ryan (R) $10,300 Minnesota Twins (-180) vs. Kansas City Royals
The final ace on the slate is the Twins’ Joe Ryan. He’s a step down from both Sale and Schlittler in terms of his own numbers this season, but the Royals are the softest matchup out of the group. They’re still implied for 3.8 runs, which is a bit higher than the Mets or White Sox, but Ryan is also a bit cheaper than the other starters. He’s my least favorite of the group, but it’s probably worth having exposure to all three if multi-entering tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Boston has been disappointing through two games in Sacramento, managing just seven total runs despite the elite hitter’s park and solid pitching matchups. Due to their slate-leading 5.9-run implied total and cheap price tag, they’re again projecting as the top stack — and I’ll be going back to the well one more time.
Like yesterday, they’re facing another left-handed starter in Jacob Lopez ($5,500). That’s important for Boston, since they rank third in wRC+ against lefties this season, compared to just 29th against right-handed pitching. Lopez also brings an ERA over 6.00 into the contest, so it’s a great matchup regardless of platoon splits.
The most interesting part of stacking Boston, for me, is the salary freedom to fit two of the top pitchers on the slate. You can do it with the stack as pictured, but pivoting to one or more cheaper hitters from the bottom of Boston’s lineup makes it even easier. If two of those three arms have big games (and no cheaper pitchers do) that could be what wins a GPP, so I can plug my nose and take the chance on Boston one more time.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jonah Heim C ($3,200) Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox (Patrick Sandoval)
Heim was one of my favorite plays yesterday, and like the opposing Red Sox, didn’t do much (0-3 with a walk). Also like Boston, he has a similar setup today.
Heim is fairly cheap for his projected spot in the A’s lineup, in an elite hitter’s park, and on the strong side of his platoon splits against a left-handed starter. Boston’s Patrick Sandoval ($6,700) has a strong 3.21 ERA in 2026, but has made just three starts, and now faces a tougher test given the park factors in Sacramento.
Heim is hitting .253 with an .838 OPS against southpaws on the season but priced for much lesser production. That’s enough for me in lineups where I’m trying to save salary for pitching.
Julio Rodriguez OF ($4,000) Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers (Eric Lauer)
I’m always looking to find ways to roster Mariners hitters away from home. Their home park, T-Mobile Field, is the toughest place for bats in all of baseball, which suppresses their offensive numbers — and thus their salaries. Dodgers’ stadium is a roughly league-average park, but that still represents a 10% boost to scoring compared to games in Seattle.
My favorite option tonight is Rodriguez, thanks to the matchup with left-handed Eric Lauer ($6,500). Rodriguez has an identical batting average against lefties and righties, but his OPS is 170 points higher against the former. PlateIQ illustrates this well:
I like Seattle in general away from home, but in practice Rodriguez has by far the best numbers against lefties, making him the obvious choice.
Jeremy Pena SS ($4,800) Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (Grayson Rodriguez)
Houston has the second-highest team total of any visiting team tonight, with a 5.2-run mark as they take on the Angels in Los Angeles. Pena is projected to hit first in their lineup and plays shortstop, which is a relatively thin position.
He’s a classic leadoff hitter, with a .314 batting average and a little bit of power/speed upside thanks to 11 homers and eight steals on the year. More importantly, he hits in front of the best batter in the game in Yordan Alvarez ($6,500), which means getting on base is fairly likely to turn into runs.
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Pictured: Cam Schlittler
Photo Credit: Imagn
