The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Gavin Williams (R) $8,800 Cleveland Guardians (-130) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Whether you’re looking at the in-house FantasyLabs projections or THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders, Williams stands out as an excellent stud to build around. In both sets of projections, he has the second-highest median and ceiling projections of the 28 starting pitchers on the schedule this Friday night, even though he only has the 4th-highest salary.
Williams is at home at Progressive Field against the Pirates on Friday night, and Pittsburgh has the third-lowest implied run total of all the teams in action. Williams also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board, indicating he should be an outstanding value as well.
The 26-year-old righty is already up to 10 wins for the Guardians this season with a 3.81 ERA backed up by a 3.74 FIP and 1.15 WHIP. He has done a great job limiting damage and also racking up strikeouts with a 29.1% K%, which would be a new career high.
His strikeout upside is key to his production as a stud this Friday, and he has the second-highest strikeout prediction of all the options on the board.
Williams went into the break with a dominant outing that earned him 34.8 DraftKings points on the road against the Twins. He worked 7 innings and gave up 2 runs while striking out 11. He has at least 6 strikeouts in four straight games and will look to carry over his elite strikeout production from that contest.
Williams has averaged 20.8 DraftKings points per start at home this year, and he’ll look to pick up where he left off with a strong outing against Pittsburgh. It will be worth keeping an eye on this game leading up to first pitch due to the concerns about air quality in Cleveland. As long as it happens as scheduled, Williams is a great centerpiece to build around.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Reid Detmers (L) $7,300 Los Angeles Angels (-106) vs. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers and Angels are both very interesting teams to keep a close eye on over the next few weeks leading up to the MLB Trade Deadline, and the two squads meet this weekend in Anaheim. The Tigers will be making a decision about what to do with impending free agent Tarik Skubal, and the Angels are expected to be sellers at the deadline, with starting pitcher Reid Detmers one option possibly on the move.
Detmers returned to the rotation this season after a couple of years in the bullpen and has mostly made the transition successfully. He’s only 3-6 in 19 starts but has a 4.39 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and 123 strikeouts in 108 2/3 innings.
His strikeout potential makes him a boom-or-bust value play in this start, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers on Friday in both sets of projections.
He went into the All-Star break with a few rough outings, allowing 5 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 appearances. However, he also had 4 starts in his last 7 that were strong enough to earn 20+ DraftKings points. He even reached 30+ DraftKings points in one of those outings, which was a home start against the Astros. His best start of the year was a 14-punchout performance against the Rangers at home at the end of May that earned him 43.4 DraftKings points.
With that much potential upside, he’s worth a play if you’re okay with the added risk of rolling with him against a Tigers offense that has been very inconsistent and has struggled against lefties for most of the season.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Bryce Miller (R) $9,900 Seattle Mariners (-158) vs. San Francisco Giants
Another starting pitcher with high upside due to his strikeout potential on Friday night is Bryce Miller of the Mariners. In the FantasyLabs projections, Miller has the 4th-highest ceiling projection and the top Leverage rating of all 28 starting pitchers taking the mound.
The 27-year-old righty is having an impressive bounce-back season with a 2.18 ERA in his 10 games, spanning 57 2/3 innings. He has been especially filthy at home with a 0.40 ERA and just 1 earned run allowed over 22 2/3 innings at T-Mobile Park.
He did get knocked around just before the break in Miami, but he had allowed only 6 earned runs in his previous 6 appearances while racking up 48 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings.
The Giants rank in the bottom 5 in the MLB in runs scored over the last 30 days, even though their bats have been doing a little better than they were earlier in the year.
Miller is high risk after his last outing, but if enough people avoid him as a result, he could be a great pivot play with excellent upside.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds get to start the second half in the rarefied air of Coors Field, where they’ll take on the Rockies and rookie righty Gabriel Hughes ($6,000). The 24-year-old has only played 2 MLB games in his career, but he struggled in Triple-A with a 5.31 ERA in 40 2/3 innings at Albuquerque. Hughes threw 3 shutout innings against the Giants in his MLB debut at Coors before the break, but his minor-league numbers indicate he could have trouble as the league adjusts to him.
The Reds’ stack highlighted above is the top 5 hitters in their lineup, who are all strong options to consider. Elly De La Cruz is an expensive play but has a very high ceiling with both power and speed potential and an average of 10.8 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests. Sal Stewart hit safely in 7 of his last 8 games and averaged 8.9 DraftKings points over his last 10.
For pure power, J.J. Bleday and Eugenio Suarez are worth a look. Suarez is a notoriously streaky power hitter who homered in back-to-back games before the break. Bleday had 3 homers in his previous 5 games as well and averaged 9.2 DraftKings points over his last 10. With some trending form and a great environment for offense, the Reds are a strong stack to build around Friday night.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Josh Bell 1B ($3,200) Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs (Colin Rea)
In the aggregate projections, Bell has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the board, just edging out Michael Bush ($3,800) on the other side of this same contest. The weather should be very homer-friendly at Wrigley Field, with hot temperatures and a decent wind blowing out.
Bell and the Twins will be taking on righty Colin Rea ($6,100), who has a 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his 19 games this season. The switch-hitting Bell has hit 10 of his 13 homers this season against righties like Rea and has connected on 9 of those long balls on the road.
Over his last 25 games, Bell is hitting .301 with 6 homers, a .412 wOBA, and a 48.1% hard-hit rate. Here’s how he and the rest of the Twins stack up at Wrigley in our PlateIQ tool:
Kyle Karros 3B ($3,400) Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds (Brady Singer)
Karros has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all third basemen on Friday’s slate in the aggregate projections. He and the Rockies will be home against the Reds and struggling righty Brady Singer. Singer has lost 3 straight starts, allowing 9 runs on 3 homers in 16 2/3 innings. On the season, he has allowed 52 runs on 20 homers in 18 outings.
Facing Singer sets up well for Karros, who exceeded salary-based expectations in 6 of his last 10 games before the break. He’s hitting .308 with 2 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs, and a stolen base over that span, producing an average of 11.1 DraftKings points per game.
Karros is still just 23 years old and seems to be successfully making his transition to being a regular MLB contributor at the hot corner.
Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B ($2,600) San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
Cronenworth had a very rough start to the season, but he has been much more productive in July. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters under $3,000 on Friday night’s slate as he takes on Lugo in Kansas City.
While his season numbers are still underwhelming as a whole, he has hit .333 in his last 12 games after picking up multiple hits on Saturday and Sunday before the break. He also added 2 stolen bases last Saturday to finish with 20 DraftKings points.
Cronenworth was a productive part of the lineup in past seasons and seems to have found his way a little bit after his slow start. Getting him at this bargain salary is a strong play against Lugo, who has allowed lefties to hit .297 with a .363 wOBA this season. Cronenworth can contribute if he keeps his momentum going this Friday.
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Pictured: Gavin Williams
Photo Credit: Imagn
