The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud/Value Pick
Jacob deGrom (R) $9,500 Texas Rangers (-168) vs. Los Angeles Angels
I try to avoid copping out and listing one pitcher as both the stud and the value play on slates as big as this one (9 games). However, from time to time, one arm stands out so much in both absolute projections and Pts/Sal projections as to be unavoidable, with that arm being deGrom tonight.
He comes into the contest with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a solid 3.48 ERA. Both of those numbers could arguably be even stronger based on his underlying data but at worst are reflective of his actual performance. His $9,500 price tag is probably too cheap based just on his own abilities, and this is the cheapest he’s been since late April despite consistently solid DFS scores since then.
What puts deGrom over the top tonight is the matchup. The Angels are a slightly below-average team against righties by wRC+, while striking out at the highest rate in baseball. They’re also very likely to still be without Mike Trout, who is close to returning from an injury but not featured in our projected lineup. As the Angels’ best hitter by far, his absence takes this from a plus-matchup to an elite one for deGrom.
That’s reflected in the betting data, where the Angels’ 3.2-run total is more than half a run below any other team. Unfortunately, deGrom also has a 60%-plus projected ownership, but given his massive lead in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections, it’s justified.
If Trout is ready to return, deGrom is still an excellent choice, just not to quite the same extent. On the positive side, perhaps that would lessen his ownership, so it might be worth riding with him regardless.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Justin Wrobleski (L) $9,000 Los Angeles Dodgers (-275) vs. Colorado Rockies
I wrote up a Dodgers lefty yesterday as one of my favorite plays on the slate, with Eric Lauer going a solid 6 innings of three-run ball at a $6,000 price tag. Tonight, the cost for the “Dodgers lefty” is much higher – but the pitcher is much better. Wrobleski has a 2.80 ERA coming into a matchup with the worst team in baseball against lefties. His 17.3% strikeout rate is concerning, but the matchup has the potential to boost that number tonight. Since most lineups can’t afford him and deGrom, we’re also getting sub-10% ownership on Wrobleski, making him an excellent tournament option if he can figure out some strikeouts.
Zach Wheeler (R) $10,500 Philadelphia Phillies (-174) at Cincinnati Reds
Wheeler is projecting for the second-highest ownership on the slate behind deGrom, with similar, but slightly worse, projections across the board. With his $1,000 premium, that makes him a tougher click, but he has a reasonable shot at outscoring deGrom at considerably lower ownership. The Reds trail the Angels by just 0.1% for the highest strikeout rate against righties while ranking 29th in wRC+, so it’s an elite matchup; it’s just tricky finding the extra salary.
Kodai Senga (R) $6,500 New York Mets (-151) vs. Kansas City Royals
I expect Senga to be a fairly popular budget option tonight, as he trails only deGrom in Pts/Sal projection. He comes into the game with an ugly 8.66 ERA but finished at 3.38 or lower in each of his previous MLB seasons, so he’s theoretically much better than his 2026 results. The Royals rank 25th in wRC+ against righties and are implied for only 4 runs, so this is a potential bounce-back spot at a cheap price tag for the Mets’ righty.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
I have a feeling we’ll continue to see the Dodgers as the top stack on the board through the duration of their series with the Rockies. While the series isn’t in Colorado, the general poor quality of the Rockies’ pitching is almost as powerful an impact on offenses as games at Coors Field. Tonight, the starter is Michael Lorenzen ($5,000), who has a 6.91 overall ERA and 5.68 road mark.
The Dodgers took advantage of that last night with 8 runs, albeit two of them in extra innings. They’re implied for 6.1 tonight, which is nearly a run higher than any other team on the slate.
The issue, of course, is their salaries. Whenever Shohei Ohtani is hitter-eligible, the overall price tag on Dodgers stacks becomes difficult to swallow, especially in lineups trying to play deGrom, who is pretty clearly the top pitcher on the slate but makes it difficult to play this full stack.
Personally, I’m more interested in picking a few pieces from LA and/or going with non-traditional stacks featuring hitters at the bottom of their lineup. Lorenzen is much worse against lefties, and 3 of the 4 Dodgers’ 6-9 hitters are either left-handed or switch-hitters, so we can get creative with some cheaper stacks and still get Dodgers’ exposure.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Randal Grichuk OF ($3,200) Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox (Payton Tolle)
While the other Chicago team has the best wRC+ in baseball against southpaws this season, the White Sox are certainly nothing to sneeze at. They rank 7th when facing lefties in 2026, led by a few hitters at the top of their lineup with excellent splits.
I used PlateIQ to figure out which bats were driving the team’s overall splits and came up with a few options, but the best price-considered choice is Grichuk:
As you can see, he has the best ISO against lefties, which is a good proxy for DFS upside since it represents power. The first 4 hitters all have something to offer, though, making them a fun team to consider for mini-stacks while saving salary.
Kyle Schwarber OF ($6,200) Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
Schwarber has been one of the few bright spots for the struggling Phillies offense this season, hitting .252 with a league-leading 30 home runs through 87 games. Now he gets to play in the second-best home run park in baseball in Cincinnati, with weather that’s also slightly favorable to hitters in general and home runs in particular.
Why I really wanted to highlight Schwarber, though, was the matchup. He’s facing left-handed Andrew Abbott ($7,500), in what would typically be an edge for the pitcher. However, Schwarber has reverse splits this season, with a higher OPS and average against lefties. Across his career, his average is just 2 points lower when facing left-handed pitchers.
If much – or even some – of the field assumes that Schwarber is on the wrong side of his platoon splits, we could get him at an ownership discount in what is a very good spot overall.
Willson Contreras 1B ($5,500) Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox (Noah Schultz)
The 34-year-old Contreras is having a career-best offensive season, which quite possibly is a result of no longer playing catcher. That’s annoying for DFS since it’s much easier to find first basemen we want to roster, but it doesn’t make him any less of a strong play.
Tonight, he and the Red Sox take on Chicago lefty Noah Schultz ($6,800), which has me especially interested in Contreras. He has a .952 OPS against southpaws in 2026, about 50 points higher than his mark against righties. He’s consistently done somewhere between moderately and much better when facing lefties across his career, making this a good spot to take a chance on him.
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Pictured: Jacob deGrom
Photo Credit: Imagn
