The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryce Miller (R) $9,500 Seattle Mariners (-211) vs. Los Angeles Angels
After a few days of park- and weather-driven high totals, we’re back to some semblance of normalcy on Thursday’s evening slate. We’ve got multiple teams implied for less than four runs, with the Angels checking in at the bottom with a total of right around 3.0.
They’ve scored just 5 runs in the first two games of their series in Seattle, where the T-Mobile Park factors have proven important yet again. I’ve also discussed how Seattle features a seemingly endless stream of statistically similar righties, with Bryce Miller getting his turn tonight.
Miller has an ERA below 2.00, with his ERA indicators ranging from the low twos to right around three. However, he’s not a regression candidate, since that’s mostly a factor of his home ballpark. To that point, his home ERA is 0.57 and his road ERA is 2.70 this season. The 2.70 is a much closer representation of his actual ability, but that doesn’t matter when this game is at home.
He also has tons of upside against the high-strikeout Angels, who rank 2nd both overall and against righties in terms of highest strikeout rate. With Miller’s own elite 33% mark, the sky is the limit here. He leads the slate in median and ceiling projection and is tied for the lead in Pts/Sal, making him a borderline must-play.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Framber Valdez (L) $7,300 Detroit Tigers (+105) at Texas Rangers
The other pitcher tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection is Detroit’s Framber Valdez, who seems to alternate between looking like a Cy Young candidate and a AAA player depending on the start. My feeling is that most lineups tonight will feature a pitcher in the $9,000 range paired with a pitcher in the $7,000 zone, with Valdez as one of the more popular options in the second category.
The Tigers are a slight underdog in this game, but Texas is only implied for about 4 runs. Globe Life Field in Arlington is also a sneaky good park for pitchers, with the second-lowest park factor in baseball, behind Seattle by just 1%. That provides a boost in this matchup against the Rangers, a roughly average team in terms of run production against lefties but with a 25.2% strikeout rate that is among the highest in the league.
Paired with Valdez’s own inconsistency – his last 4 starts have produced either less than 5 or more than 20 DraftKings points – that makes for a wide range of outcomes tonight. There’s a confluence of factors likely to push him to the higher end of that range, so I don’t think you necessarily need to fade him for cash games, but he’s a better tournament option.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Nathan Eovaldi (R) $9,000 Texas Rangers (-125) vs. Detroit Tigers
The other strong $9,000 range option is the Rangers’ Eovaldi, who gets the ballpark boost discussed above and is slightly favored against a mediocre Tigers lineup. Eovaldi comes into the game with good-not-great numbers: an ERA just below 4 and a mid-20s strikeout rate. With the top stack on the board being very cheap, we could easily pair Eovaldi and Miller. While they’re projecting as the two most popular pitchers, I have a strong suspicion that most of the field is taking an either/or approach.
Roki Sasaki ($7,700) Los Angeles Dodgers (-199) vs. San Diego Padres
The other budget option tonight is Sasaki, who comes into the game with an ugly 4.88 ERA but a strong matchup as a home favorite against the Padres. San Diego is a bottom-5 team against right-handed pitching and has just a 3.7-run implied total. On paper at least, that gives him a narrower range of outcomes than Valdez, making him more suitable for cash games – but his single-digit implied ownership is enticing for tournaments as well.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
The cheap stack I mentioned above is the Rays, who have the highest team total on the board at 5.6 runs while checking in at just $4,000 per player. Tampa is playing in Kansas City, where the usual pitcher-friendly park is giving a massive edge to batters thanks to the weather, which is projecting for a 20% boost to both total scoring and home runs.
They also have what should be a winnable matchup against Stephen Kolek ($6,800). The Royals righty has a 4.15 ERA and slightly higher underlying numbers, with a low (16.6%) strikeout rate that is especially problematic with hitting weather like this. Tampa is also the third-best team against right-handed pitching by wRC+, making their low salaries even more surprising.
From a strategic standpoint, the Rays make it easy to pair Eovaldi and Miller, as rostering those two pitchers with the full Rays stack still leaves $3,833 per player in remaining salary. Or, you could roster them with one (or two) of the cheap arms and have enough salary left to squeeze in some other superstar bats.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($6,100) Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Ian Seymour)
The other superstar hitter I’m most interested in is the Rays’ opponent, Bobby Witt Jr. Witt has the highest median and ceiling projection of any hitter on tonight’s slate, as he also benefits from both the strong hitting weather and a winnable matchup.
The matchup in question is the Rays’ lefty Ian Seymour ($8,000), who has a 4.32 ERA and an absurd 53.5% flyball rate. With hot temperatures and winds blowing out, that’s a big problem tonight. The Royals aren’t great against lefties in general (92 wRC+), but we can use PlateIQ to show it’s not a problem for Witt:
Plus, he conveniently fits around Rays stacks (as does catcher Salvador Perez ($3,300), making it easy to game stack the best weather game on the slate if you’re so inclined.
JJ Wetherholt 2B ($4,400) St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (Hurston Waldrep)
My second-favorite game for offense is the Cardinals/Braves meeting in Atlanta, which features a 9-run total fairly evenly divided between both teams. That makes the Cardinals a slightly better stack, thanks to their guaranteed 9th-inning trip to the plate.
The rookie Wetherholt is slated to lead off their lineup, with a reasonable $4,400 price tag. He’s hitting a solid .260 about halfway through his debut campaign, with 12 home runs and 9 stolen bases giving him a bit of upside. Plus, Braves starter Hurston Waldrep ($8,000) has been considerably worse against lefties in his (brief) MLB career, with a more than 60-point wOBA boost to left-handed hitters like Wetherholt.
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Pictured: Bryce Miller
Photo Credit: Imagn
