The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) $10,800 Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) at San Diego Padres
There’s no clear-cut top pitcher on Saturday’s slate. Each of the top arms has at least one flaw, including Yamamoto. His strikeout numbers aren’t nearly as good as you’d expect for a nearly $11,000 pitcher. His K/9 has dipped from 10.42 last season to 8.44 this year, and his strikeout rate sits in merely the 65th percentile.
Still, Yamamoto has been incredibly successful. He’s pitched to a 2.45 ERA, and he’s been even better recently. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six outings, and he’s thrown at least seven innings in four of them.
Yamamoto also benefits from playing for the Dodgers. They’re among the biggest favorites nearly every time they take the field, and Saturday is no exception. They’re listed as -200 against their division rivals, and no other team is better than -163. His 3.4 opponent implied run total is also the top mark on the slate. The Padres’ offense has struggled for most of the season, and they’re currently 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
Ultimately, Yamamoto ranks first on the slate in median and ceiling projection, and he feels like the safest bet at pitcher.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Reid Detmers (L) $8,300 Los Angeles Angels (-115) vs. Athletics
Detmers has had an interesting MLB career so far. He broke out in his second season at 22 years old, pitching to a 3.77 ERA across 25 starts. Unfortunately, he was unable to sustain that level moving forward, and he was eventually moved to the bullpen in 2025. Detmers had a strong year in relief, which was enough to earn him another crack at the rotation in 2026.
So far, Detmers hasn’t disappointed. He’s posted a 3.93 ERA, and his 2.93 FIP is even better. Most impressively, he’s averaged just under 10 strikeouts per nine innings, while his K rate puts him in the 80th percentile.
Detmers should be able to pile up the punchouts on Saturday. He’s taking on the Athletics, who have the potential to strike out in bunches. They have the eighth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season, and their projected lineup has whiffed in 26.6% of at-bats vs. lefties over the past 12 months.
That combination propels Detmers to the top of the K Prediction leaderboard. He checks in at 7.49, which is an excellent mark for his price tag. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.62 (per the Trends tool).
Detmers has the top projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X, and he’s No. 2 in the Fantasy Labs projections. He’s expected to be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, but it’s hard to knock his upside in this matchup.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jack Perkins (R) $6,300 Athletics (-105) at Los Angeles Angels
Perkins will be opposing Detmers in Los Angeles, and he owns the top projected Plus/Minus in the Fantasy Labs projection set. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back starts, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again vs. the Angels. They have the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers, and they’re merely 19th in wRC+.
David Peterson (L) $6,000 Chicago Cubs (+136) at Milwaukee Brewers
Peterson was the first piece to go in what feels like an inevitable fire sale for the Mets. He lands with the Cubs, which should give him an immediate upgrade from a defensive standpoint. Peterson is an elite groundball pitcher – his groundball rate ranks in the 90th percentile – and more of those should turn into outs in his new home. The Brewers have also been pedestrian against southpaws this season, ranking 19th in wRC+.
Logan Webb (R) $9,400 San Francisco Giants (-131) vs. Atlanta Braves
Webb is having another typical Webb season for the Giants. His strikeout numbers are a bit down from last season, but he’s still pitched to a 3.35 ERA. As usual, he has been at his best at home, pitching to a 2.29 FIP in San Francisco. The Giants have one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball, and Webb has averaged a +4.47 Plus/Minus in San Francisco for his career. He’s also catching the Braves’ offense at a great time: Their 57 wRC+ against righties over the past 14 days is the worst in the league.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected Plus/Minus belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
As usual, the Dodgers own the top offensive expectations in our MLB Models. They own the top stack by projected points, and there’s certainly no harm in using them. That said, the Dodgers will certainly be popular, and they’re also pretty expensive. It’s going to be tough to pair their top stack with either Yamamoto or Webb.
Instead, let’s look at the Twins. They own the top stack from a value standpoint, and their top option will set you back just $18,100. Three of the five batters are priced below $3,000, so it’s easy to load up the rest of your lineup around them.
Their lineup has far more upside than their price tag suggests. They’re currently implied for 5.2 runs, which is the top mark on the slate. They’re set to face off with Michael Lorenzen, who has been a gas can all season. He owns a 7.11 ERA, and while that is partly due to pitching at Coors Field, his 6.05 road ERA is nothing to write home about.
Byron Buxton stands out as the clear focal point of this stack. He’s mashed righties to the tune of a .406 wOBA and .358 ISO this season, so he’s one of the top offensive options of the day. He makes sense even if you’re not stacking the Twins.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Alec Burleson, 1B ($4,300) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins (Ryan Gusto)
The Cardinals were expected to be at the beginning of a rebuild this season, but their young offense has kept them relevant. They’re currently five games above .500, and they’re just 0.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.
Burleson has been one of their best hitters, and he’s absolutely mashed against right-handed pitchers (via Plate IQ):
He simply should not be priced this affordably against a right-hander, especially a mediocre one like Gusto. He has the fourth-highest ceiling projection in our blended set, and he has the top projected Plus/Minus among the non-Twins.
Tyler O’Neill, OF ($2,400) Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals (Foster Griffin)
O’Neill has not had his best season, but he’s expected to bat fifth for the Orioles on Saturday. That’s due primarily to the matchup vs. Griffin. He’s a southpaw, and O’Neill has a 132 wRC+ in that split for his career. He also has significant power potential, making him a strong value option at just $2,400.
Matt Shaw, 3B/OF ($2,500) Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (Kyle Harrison)
Shaw is another player who benefits from the splits advantage on Saturday. He’s taking on a southpaw in Harrison, who has had a remarkable year for the Brewers. They seem to know how to get the most out of whoever walks into their clubhouse, and he’s pitched to a 2.50 ERA through his first 14 starts.
That said, Harrison’s advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive, and Shaw has posted an excellent .357 wOBA and .220 ISO against left-handers this season. He’s expected to bat second in the Cubs’ lineup, and getting a No. 2 hitter at $2,500 with those kinds of metrics is enticing.
Pictured: Reid Detmers
Photo Credit: Imagn
