The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease (R) $10,000 Toronto Blue Jays (-125) vs. Houston Astros
Tonight’s nine-game slate gives us plenty of strong pitching options. We don’t have any true “elite pitcher in great matchup” spots, but we have plenty of very good pitchers taking on teams that we aren’t necessarily looking to avoid rostering hitters against.
That’s exactly what we have with Cease, who comes into the game with a 2.71 ERA and a 36.3% strikeout rate. The latter number would be second-best in the majors – behind only the absurd 39.1% from Jacob Misiorowski – if Cease had thrown enough innings to qualify for leaderboards, as he’s just short at the moment. However, despite the slightly smaller sample size, it’s not quite an unsustainable number. His 15.8% swinging strike rate is also elite, and 2026 marks the fourth straight season he’s improved upon it.
The Astros are a slightly above-average offense against righties, but nothing to shy away from outside of Yordan Alvarez ($6,000), who is probably the best hitter in baseball right now. Even with his elite numbers factored in, Houston ranks 14th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
They’re implied for a slate-low 3.7 runs tonight, which shows what the market thinks of the matchup. Paired with Cease’s elite strikeout ability, it’s easy to see how he leads the slate in median and ceiling projection. Plus, we’ve got enough cheaper options at pitcher and a cheap top stack that make his $10,000 price tag easy to afford.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Eric Lauer (L) $5,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) at Minnesota Twins
We have four pitchers, including Cease, tied for the Pts/Sal lead on the slate. The cheapest of those is the Dodgers’ Lauer, which makes him my value pick by default.
Lauer’s numbers on the season are about what you’d expect from a pitcher at his salary, with a 5.37 ERA and broadly similar underlying numbers. He also has just a 16% strikeout rate, so this isn’t a play I’m chasing for upside. On the plus side, the Twins rank 18th in wRC+ against lefties, so it’s a slightly positive matchup.
More importantly, pitching for the Dodgers gives him a much stronger chance at collecting the four-point win bonus than he would for most teams, with Los Angeles as moderate moneyline favorites implied for about a full run more than the Twins. The extra four points is relatively more impactful to a sub-$6,000 pitcher than they are to an expensive one.
Plus, he’s been somewhat better over the past month, averaging around 13 DraftKings points. That’s nothing to write home about but would equate to well over the 2.0 Pts/Sal we have him projected for. The real appeal is all the salary savings, of course, so anything in the double figures is probably enough to keep you in contention.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Shota Imanaga (L) $8,300 Chicago Cubs (-120) at New York Mets
I continue my interest in Imanaga largely thanks to the positive regression case for his strikeouts. He has a swinging strike rate of 14.6% but a strikeout rate of just 24.1%, with the former number typically equating to a strikeout rate of 30% or more. He also has an xERA more than half a run lower than his 4.25 ERA, so there’s some potential regression there too. Now he faces a Mets team that’s slightly below average in wRC+ and strikeout rate against lefties, making this a solid chance for that regression to hit.
Jake Bennett (L) $5,500 Boston Red Sox (-125) at Colorado Rockies
In theory, Jake Bennett is another regression candidate, with ERA predictors more than a full run below his 4.79 ERA and a 15.3% strikeout rate just barely above his 11.8% swinging strike rate (on average, the former number is a little more than twice the latter). The real appeal for him, though, is the matchup. He’s taking on the Rockies, the worst team in baseball against lefties in terms of both strikeouts and wRC+. He’s facing them at Coors Field, which makes this a scary proposition, but he’s a fun tournament flier given his price point, low flyball rate, and second-round draft pick pedigree.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The other half of the Coors Field contest tonight is the Red Sox, who are almost comically underpriced relative to their 6.1-run implied total. A lot of that is due to projected leadoff hitter Anthony Siegler carrying a $2,700 price tag, so it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on the lineups page to see if he’s confirmed in that role.
Even without that budget option, the worst-case scenario is spending a bit more for the team with the best implied total on the slate against Ryan Feltner ($5,000), who brings a 5.05 ERA and slightly worse ERA predictors into the contest. They’d still be a fairly obvious best stack even if Siegler is bumped down the order and we spend $1,500 or so more on someone else to lock in the top-five batters.
They’ll come with huge ownership, though, since I’m far from the only one noticing the value they present. That’s one of the reasons I like rostering Bennett. He’s contrarian on his own, and pairing him with his own offense builds in some extra correlation. The Red Sox offense going off both extends how long Bennett could stay in the game and raises his odds of picking up the win bonus.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Coby Mayo 3B ($3,100) Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (Sam Aldegheri)
One of my favorite use cases for PlateIQ is finding hitters with strong platoon splits against a certain-handed pitcher on teams who, otherwise, struggle. For example, the Orioles have an 87 wRC+ against lefties, well below their 109 mark against righties. However, there’s one hitter in particular who bucks that trend:
I suppose there are two, counting Taylor Ward ($4,400), but the best numbers belong to Mayo. He’s hitting just .144 against righties but .302 against lefties this season, with twice as many home runs in about one-third the at-bats. That’s why we’re getting him at $3,100 despite batting cleanup for a team with a 5.1-run total.
Jackson Chourio OF ($5,500) Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (Brady Singer)
The 22-year-old Chourio brings a nice combination of power and speed upside, with at least 20 homers and 20 steals in each of his first two big-league seasons. He’s likely to fall short of the steals mark this season due to missing some time, but when he’s been in the lineup he’s been better than ever, with a .301 average and .894 OPS in 2026.
I’m especially interested in him (and the Brewers generally) tonight thanks to the park factor upgrade by playing in Cincinnati. Scoring is only about 6% higher than in Milwaukee, but home runs get a near 20% boost, which is huge for a player with Chourio’s power. He also fits nicely around Red Sox stacks, which is another benefit. He’s the highest-rated hitter outside of the game at Coors in our tournament model.
Shohei Ohtani 1B/OF ($6,500) Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins (Zebby Matthews)
If you’re joining me on my plan to roster the Red Sox stack plus Bennett – or the Dodgers’ Lauer – you’ve got plenty of salary left to fit Ohtani in your lineup. I don’t think I need to sell you on his merits, as the reigning MVP continues to dominate, averaging double-digit points as a hitter this season.
Despite there being a game at Coors Field tonight, his median projection is nearly two full points higher than any other hitter on the slate. He also fits around Boston stacks nicely as an outfielder, so there’s really no downside while we have the salary cap space.
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Pictured: Dylan Cease
Photo Credit: Imagn
