Wednesday features Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the New York Knicks. The Spurs managed to get on the board in Game 3, and they now trail in this series two games to one. The Knicks are listed as 2.5-point home favorites on Wednesday, while the total sits at 216.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The Knicks have done a pretty good job against Victor Wembanyama for most of this series, but he put together an excellent performance in Game 3. He finished with 32 points, eight rebounds, six assists, two steals, and three blocks, resulting in 61.5 DraftKings points. The Spurs did a much better job of getting him the ball around the rim, which allowed him to shoot 11-18 from the field.
Wembanyama remains one of the best per-minute producers when on the floor, and his playing time has been way up during the playoffs. He averaged just 29.2 minutes per game during the regular season, but he’s logged at least 37.8 minutes in the first three games of this series. That’s a terrifying combination.
Wembanyama has the top median and ceiling projections on this slate by a pretty wide margin, and he’s No. 3 in projected Plus/Minus. He has yet to appear as the optimal Captain through the first three games, but he was a utility player in both Games 1 and 3.
The Spurs are one of the toughest defensive matchups in basketball, especially for a smaller guard like Jalen Brunson. They have a number of big physical guards to throw at him, while Wembanyama is always lurking to protect the rim. They’ve made life hell on Brunson so far in this series, who has shot just 37.0% through the first three games.
That said, it hasn’t deterred Brunson’s aggressiveness. His usage rate is way up in this series. He’s been at 41.0% or higher in two of three games, and he was at 36.1% in the third. That may not be the best formula for the Knicks’ offense, but it gives Brunson an excellent ceiling.
Despite being the second-most expensive player on the slate, Brunson is available at a significant discount compared to Wembanyama. It makes him arguably the superior option. He just narrowly edges out Wemby in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he’s also been in the optimal lineup as a utility player in two of three games. Only one game has featured both players, however, so you may need to choose between the two.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the only member of the stud tier to appear as an optimal Captain in this series. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in Games 1 and 2 while playing some of the best basketball of his career. His final stat lines haven’t been gaudy, but he’s done a better job than just about anyone in basketball at slowing down Wembanyama.
Towns saw a few additional minutes in Game 3, jumping up to 38 minutes after sitting at around 34 in the first two games. Unfortunately, it didn’t result in any additional production. It was his worst game of the series, with Towns notching just 11 points and eight rebounds.
Expect the Knicks to look to get him more involved on Wednesday. Their offense has been at its best this season with Towns serving as a focal point, and they’ve gotten away from that vs. the Spurs. He has the worst projections among the stud trio, but that comes with the lowest projected ownership.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Stephon Castle has been fearless during the NBA playoffs. Despite being just 21 years old, he knocked down some of the biggest shots in the team’s Game 3 win. He hit a huge 3-pointer to put the team up seven with less than two minutes to go, and he knocked down a pair of monster free throws to ice the game.
Castle is coming off his best performance of the series on Monday. He had 40.75 DraftKings points across 38.1 minutes, and there’s no reason to expect much different in Game 4. Castle has averaged well over a fantasy point per minute during the playoffs, and he should be looking at another expanded workload in a massive Game 4.
OG Anunoby was the Knicks’ best player in Game 3. He had 28 points on 9-13 shooting, and he knocked down some big 3-pointers to keep them alive down the stretch. He also had 35.5 DraftKings points in Game 2, and he’s been in the optimal lineup in both contests.
Anunoby has been extremely consistent for the Knicks all playoffs, failing to return value in just two of 17 games. However, his price tag has increased to $8,400 for Game 4 after starting the series at just $7,200. He’s a bit less exciting at his current salary, but he still has the potential to return value.
De’Aaron Fox is one of the Spurs’ most important players. The team lacks a go-to, crunch-time scorer, but Fox is their closest thing to it. He knocked down the jumper to put the game on ice on Monday.
Fox has turned in back-to-back quality fantasy performances, albeit in different ways. He had his scoring working in Game 2, finishing with 20 points on 8-12 shooting. He was unable to duplicate his shooting success in Game 3, but he made up for it with eight assists.
Fox ultimately stands out as one of the strongest options in this price range. His projections are pretty similar to Castle’s, despite being more than $1,000 cheaper. He ranks fourth on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s second in that metric in the midrange tier.
Josh Hart is the heart and soul of the Knicks. While Brunson might drive the offense, Hart provides everything else. He’s an elite rebounder for his size and routinely makes the hustle plays at the exact moment the team needs them.
Hart has had at least 35.75 DraftKings points in two of the first three games in this series, and he’s coming off his best offensive showing in Game 3. The Spurs dared him to knock down some shots from the perimeter, and he responded with 16 points and four 3-pointers. If they employ a similar defensive strategy on Wednesday, Hart has the potential to be one of the best values of the day. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models.
Mikal Bridges picked up two quick fouls in Game 3, which ultimately limited him to just 28.7 minutes of court time. That was way down from his more than 40 minutes in Game 2, when he racked up 40.0 DraftKings points and finished as the optimal captain.
Unfortunately, Bridges has carried a minimal usage rate for most of this series. He’s been at 14.9% or lower in all three games, so he’s had to rely on efficiency more than volume. That worked in Game 2 – he was 8-13 from the field and 4-6 from 3-point range – but it’s a tough way to make a living. Even if he gets back closer to his Game 2 workload, there’s no guarantee it makes a huge difference for fantasy purposes.
Dylan Harper has come off the bench for the Spurs all season, but there is no denying he’s one of the team’s best players. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three games in this series, including 30.75 DraftKings points in Game 3. That was enough to make him the optimal Captain at his reasonable salary.
Harper’s workload has steadily increased throughout the playoffs, and he’s logged at least 32 minutes in back-to-back games. He should still come off the bench in Game 4, but he’s basically playing a starter’s role. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +15.01 in 10 games with at least 28 minutes during his rookie season (per the Trends tool), so he remains an extremely appealing option.
Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie round out the Spurs’ starting lineup, and both players fill similar roles for the team. They’re key spacers on offense, and both guys have turned in huge performances at times during the playoffs. Champagnie had 36.0 DraftKings points in Game 1 of this series, while Vassell had 36.25 DraftKings points in Game 2.
The two players have a correlation of -0.16, so one tends to succeed at the other’s expense. Vassell looks like the clear choice of the two at the moment. He’s had the clear edge in playing time in this series, with Champagnie losing some minutes to Harper in closing lineups. Vassell is projected for 37 minutes on this slate, while Champagnie is at just 31.5.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Landry Shamet ($4,600): Shamet has been a massive part of the Knicks’ success in the playoffs, and he finished with 22.0 DraftKings points in Game 2. However, he was just 1-7 from 3-point range on Monday. He has some upside on nights when his shot is falling, but he doesn’t have a ton of appeal at his current salary.
- Mitchell Robinson ($3,200): Robinson played at least 13 minutes in the first two games in this series, but he dipped below 10 in Game 3. The Spurs employed the “hack-a-Mitch” strategy in that contest, which ultimately forced him to the pine. That’s always a threat with Robinson, who doesn’t have much of a ceiling even on nights where things break right for him.
- Miles McBride ($3,000): McBride is one of the Knicks’ reserve guards, though where he falls on the pecking order is up for grabs. He was not a preferred option for the team in Game 3, finishing with -0.50 DraftKings points in less than 10 minutes.
- Keldon Johnson ($2,800): Johnson took home the Sixth Man of the Year trophy this season, but he hasn’t been much of a factor in the playoffs. Still, he’s played at least 15 minutes in back-to-back games, and his salary is as low as it’s been all postseason. There’s some buy-low appeal here.
- Jordan Clarkson ($1,800): The Knicks dusted off Clarkson in Game 3, and he responded with 17.75 DraftKings points at a minimum price tag. That was good enough to find himself in the optimal lineup. However, that seems like a clear outlier. He played less than six minutes in Game 2, and he’s projected to return to that level in Game 4.
- Luke Kornet ($1,600): Kornet’s role has diminished as the playoffs have progressed, with the Spurs looking to keep Wembanyama on the floor as much as humanly possible. That said, he’s priced near the minimum at $1,600, and he did manage 13.25 DraftKings points in Game 3. There’s always a chance that Wembanyama ends up in foul trouble, so he has some contrarian value in lineups where you’re fading the star big man.
- Jose Alvarado ($1,400): Alvardo is arguably the best punt play on this slate. He’s had a role in all three games, and he finished in the optimal lineup in Game 1. His energy and defensive presence has been crucial for the Knicks in this series, so he should maintain a role moving forward.
- Carter Bryant ($1,200): Bryant remains a part of the Spurs’ future, but he has barely seen the floor in this series. He’s played less than four minutes in back-to-back games, and there’s no reason to expect anything different in Game 4.
- Harrison Barnes ($1,000): Barnes picked up a DNP-CD on Monday, so it’s possible he’s completely out of the rotation at this point.
Pictured: Jalen Brunson, Stephon Castle
Photo Credit: Imagn
