Monday features Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks at 8 p.m. ET. The Knicks are listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 218.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The Cleveland Cavaliers have only been swept twice in the NBA Playoffs but are on the verge of making it a third time if they are unable to beat the New York Knicks tonight. They are home underdogs after losing each of the first three games by double digits and are only averaging 101.7 points per game this series.
Cavaliers’ stud Donovan Mitchell has recorded 35 DraftKings points in back-to-back games after erupting for 53.2 points in Game 1. Per usual, most of Mitchell’s fantasy production comes from scoring the ball as a shooting guard. He is averaging 26 points per game in this series, shooting 46.8% from the field.
Mitchell may take matters into his own hands to make sure this series goes back to New York, but it is difficult to justify him as the most expensive option in this game. Despite being projected for a slate-high 32.3% usage rate, Mitchell is drawing the fourth-highest projected captain ownership at less than 10%.
The New York Knicks are looking for back-to-back sweeps in the NBA Playoffs and would get a significant rest advantage over the Western Conference Finals participants if they can close out this series tonight. The Knicks have won 10 straight games with an average margin of victory of 22.5 points per game.
Jalen Brunson has dominated this matchup, especially when he gets James Harden switched onto him on defense. Brunson is averaging 29 points, 8.7 assists, and 48.4 DraftKings points per game with a points-and-assists double-double. He is shooting an impressive 50% from the field.
Brunson is the only player projected to play 40 minutes, which he has done in all three games this series. Despite leading the series in minutes, his salary has dipped to a series-low $10,000. That is resulting in the second-highest captain ownership and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the utility position.
Popping in our NBA Model the most is Karl-Anthony Towns. Mainly due to a salary decrease down to $9,600, Towns leads the slate by a wide margin in projected Plus/Minus at both the captain and utility positions. He is drawing an absurd 35% captain ownership, making him a strong play.
Towns is averaging a 14.7-point, 11.3-rebound double-double in this series with 4.3 assists per game. The Knicks lead the playoffs with a 54.1% rebound rate due to Towns’ dominance on the glass. The Cavaliers rank 12 out of 16 in defensive rating these playoffs, and Towns is simply too cheap for his projected output.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Evan Mobley leads the mid-range, averaging 36.3 DraftKings points per game in the first three games of this series. He has been consistent, averaging 17.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and two blocks per game. Mobley is also coming off an electric 24-point, six-rebound performance where he shot 10-for-18 from the field.
Mobley is reasonably priced at $9,000 and is drawing nearly 45% at the utility position. His 5% captain ownership would make him a contrarian pay-up option. Despite the Knicks’ monster frontcourt, Mobley posted a 15-point, 14-rebound double-double in Game 1, proving he can be productive in this matchup.
James Harden has been getting torched defensively and hasn’t quite made it up on the offensive end this series. However, late in the Raptors’ series, Harden averaged 25.7 points and 50.7 DraftKings points per game across a three-game stretch. If that Harden shows up tonight, he is the best option on the slate.
Against the Knicks, Harden is shooting 41.3% from the field and 22.7% from behind the arc. However, his salary has dipped significantly down to $8,600, which is the main reason Harden looks great in our NBA Model. He is drawing the most captain ownership for the Cavaliers at 15%, the third-most on the slate.
Josh Hart has always been a player that can provide fantasy production in a variety of options. He is living up to that in this series. Hart is averaging 17 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 38.2 DraftKings points per game with seven steals. His 17 points per game is the most he has averaged in any playoff series.
Hart is a contrarian value option that is only drawing 25% ownership at the utility position. That seems way too low, and it is recommended to get overweight Hart at the utility position tonight. He is projected to play 34 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off his salary with his elite fantasy versatility.
OG Anunoby has increased his fantasy production in every game this series. In Game 3, Anunoby had his best performance with 21 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, accumulating 36.8 DraftKings points. He shot 6-for-10 from the field, including 3-for-4 from distance and a perfect 6-for-6 at the charity stripe.
Despite missing two games against the 76ers due to a hamstring injury, Anunoby is second on the Knicks in scoring this postseason, averaging 19.9 points per game. He is one of the best values available at his $7,600 price tag. Anunoby is drawing 46% utility ownership, which is the fifth-highest on the slate tonight.
Jarrett Allen is another consistent value option that looks like a strong play in the mid-range. He has scored double-digit points in six straight playoff games and continues to be a menace defensively in the paint. Allen is projected for the third-highest utility ownership at 47% and has a great amount of upside.
In Game 3, Allen uncharacteristically did not record a single block or steal. It was the first game he had done that since early February. The Knicks have one of the lowest turnover rates in the playoffs and do not give up blocks easily. Even with that, Allen can be productive scoring and rebounding in Game 4.
Mikal Bridges erupted in Game 3 with his best playoff performance this season. He stuffed the stat sheet with 22 points, six rebounds, three steals, two assists, and two blocks for 41.5 DraftKings points while he shot an absurd 11-for-15 from the field. In Games 1 and 2, Bridges recorded just below 30 DraftKings points.
Despite Bridges’ spike in Game 3, he is only drawing 30% utility ownership for tonight’s game. However, he is another Knicks starter that is going to play heavy minutes. He is averaging over 40 minutes per game in this series, which makes him a solid value option. Bridges is favorably priced at $7,000 tonight.
Similar to Bridges, Max Strus posted a ceiling performance in Game 3. The Cavaliers’ sharpshooter shot 4-for-11 from downtown for 13 points. It was his second time scoring double-digit points in his last six games. Last game, Strus also added seven rebounds and six assists, doing his best Josh Hart impression.
Nearly all of Strus’ scoring has come from his perimeter shooting, where the Knicks have been the most susceptible. In this series, 84% of Strus’ field goal attempts have come from behind the arc. Luckily for him, that is great news in this matchup with the Knicks allowing a playoff-high 39.4% from downtown.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Sam Merrill ($5,000): Merrill is another Cavaliers sharpshooter that can take full advantage of the Knicks’ poor perimeter defense. He does not provide the ceiling of Strus with his lack of peripherals, but Merrill can burn it from deep. He has made at least two 3-pointers in six of his last seven games.
- Landry Shamet ($4,800): Shamet is the Knicks’ version of Strus and Merrill with his elite perimeter shooting. In this series, Shamet is 7-for-8 from behind the arc with 25 total points and many clutch shots. He played 28 minutes last game and is making it hard for the Knicks not to give him minutes.
- Miles McBride ($4,400): McBride is going to play around 15 minutes, but his fantasy production is incredibly inconsistent. Game 2 was his best performance with five points, four rebounds, and three assists for 15 DraftKings points. He scored well under 10 DraftKings points in the other two games.
- Mitchell Robinson ($4,000): Robinson has seen his fantasy production and playing time decrease throughout this series, probably due to the emergence of Shamet and the Knicks’ playing small. He still has upside defensively and is a value option that can both score in the paint and rebound.
- Dennis Schroder ($3,200): Schroder saw his playing time get cut to nine minutes in Game 3 after playing 18 minutes in the first two games. He has a near 20% usage rate projection and will be an incredible value play if he gets back to his 18 minutes tonight. Schroder is risky but well worth it.
- Dean Wade ($2,800): Wade is going to play the most of these punt plays by a significant margin but has a 6% usage rate projection. His main goal is to slow down Brunson, and any offensive production is a bonus. He falls into the Merrill and Strus category, shooting 100% of his field goals from distance.
- Jaylon Tyson ($2,000): Tyson did not play in Game 1 but has played 10 and nine minutes in the last two games. He has been productive in his short stints, averaging 3.5 points and three rebounds per game for exactly 7.8 DraftKings points in both contests. A true punt play for a stars-and-scrubs build.
- Jordan Clarkson ($1,600): Clarkson played 16 minutes in Game 1, and his playing time has dipped to only three minutes last game. However, our NBA Model absolutely loves him. With his eight-minute projection and 20% usage rate, Clarkson has the second-highest utility ownership tonight at 50%.
Pictured: Jalen Brunson
Photo Credit: Imagn
