The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud/Value Pick
Reid Detmers (L) $7,300 Los Angeles Angels (-130) vs. Athletics
It’s an interesting pitching slate, as we have a couple of aces in very difficult matchups – making them poor values for their salary – and the top projections belong to a mid-priced pitcher in a better situation.
That would be Detmers, the Angels lefty who comes into the game with a 4.38 ERA. All of his underlying metrics are about a run lower, though, with a solid 25% strikeout rate as he returns to the rotation after operating as a reliever last season. The A’s are a bottom-third team in terms of both wRC+ and strikeout rate against lefties, so not quite an elite matchup, but a very solid one.
Beyond that, we also have the A’s away from home. With their home ballpark being extremely favorable for hitting, it’s much better for their opponents when they’re on the road. While the Vegas data for Detmers isn’t especially exciting, in the context of his price point, it’s fairly strong, making him a reasonably high-confidence play.
He leads both our median and ceiling projections despite his low price tag, which also makes him the clear Pts/Sal leader. Those numbers might adjust a bit as we tweak the projections, but all things considered, he’s a fairly obvious best overall option.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $11,000 Milwaukee Brewers (-116) at Chicago Cubs
Misiorowski has virtually identical projections as Detmers, but the nearly $4,000 in additional salary obviously makes him a tougher click, especially when facing the Cubs, who have the third-best wRC+ in the majors and a fairly low strikeout rate. Of course, Misiorowski is elite, with a 2.12 ERA and 39.6% strikeout rate. His ceiling is massive in any matchup, and the price tag should keep ownership down, so this is a classic “pay up to be contrarian” spot.
Dylan Cease (R) $10,000 Toronto Blue Jays (+115) at New York Yankees
Cease is in a similar situation as Misiorowski. He has excellent numbers on the season, with his 2.46 ERA and 34.6% strikeout rate just a touch worse than Misiorowski, but he’s facing the second-best offense in baseball in the Yankees. New York does have a higher strikeout rate than the Cubs, which probably gives Cease a wider range of outcomes, and the price tag is a bit easier to swallow. Of course, that also comes with a higher ownership rate, plus the forecast in New York calls for temperatures in the 90s and wind blowing straight out. I’d prefer to get Misiorowski if possible, but the extra $1,000 might mean I settle for Cease more often.
Jacob Lopez (L) $6,500 Athletics (+107) at Los Angeles Angels
An extremely contrarian option would be to roster Lopez instead of (or in addition to) his opponent Detmers. Lopes comes into the game with a 5.80 ERA but a 3.51 xERA, which is in part explained by his home ballpark being extremely challenging for pitchers. Tonight he’s on the road in Los Angeles, facing a team with a 25% strikeout rate against lefties. That might not be enough for Lopez to right the ship, but his odds are a lot better than in most matchups.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Texas Rangers:
I was skeptical of the Rangers’ chances yesterday in the first game of their series at Coors Field. They put up a solid but unspectacular six runs in a loss to the Rockies, which was fine at their price point but not quite a GPP-winning outcome.
My skepticism was in large part due to the matchup. Texas was (and remains) the worst team in the league against left-handed pitching, and they faced a southpaw. Tonight, they draw right-hander Tanner Gordon ($5,500), who is expected to serve as the long reliever following opener Sammy Peralta.
That’s a big difference, since the Rangers are a slightly above-average offense against right-handed pitching. More importantly, Gordon (and Peralta) both have ERAs over five, so it’s a favorable matchup even outside of platoon splits. This might be the actual smash spot for Texas that we were hoping for last night.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Mickey Moniak OF ($5,500) Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers (Kumar Rocker)
On paper this is also a much better matchup for the Rockies offense than yesterday, and they put up seven runs last night. They’re not quite as bad as the Rangers against left-handed pitching, but they rank 28th in the majors, and their wRC+ as a team jumps 15 points when facing righties.
Using PlateIQ, it’s pretty easy to see why:
The 2-4 hitters in their lineup all have awesome numbers against righties and make for a perfect mini stack, with Moniak the best of the bunch.
Colby Thomas OF ($3,000) Athletics vs. Angels (Reid Detmers)
Given the likely huge ownership on Detmers, lineups that don’t feature him as a pitcher should almost certainly have a/some A’s hitters for increased leverage. Part of the thesis for Detmers is the A’s poor platoon splits against lefties as a team, but there are obviously some exceptions when we get down to a player level.
One of those is Thomas, who in his young career is hitting .282 with seven home runs in 85 at-bats against lefties. Against right-handed pitching, he’s hit .203 with no dingers in 64 ABs. He’s also just $3,000 despite having a premium (#3) spot in the A’s order while they’re implied for 4.4 runs. As with the Rockies, there are a few hitters with similar (though less extreme) splits, making mini-stacks a viable option.
Kody Clemens 1B ($3,300 Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros (Lance McCullers)
Even with the inclusion of Thomas, I found myself hurting for salary as I finished many of my lineups, which will likely be the case for anyone trying to spend up for Misiorowski tonight. One potential option for some relief is Clemens/the Twins in general, as they have a solid 4.7-run implied total and fairly cheap salaries outside of Byron Buxton ($6,100).
The strong projection is in large part due to the matchup with Lance McCullers ($6,800). McCullers missed all of 2023 and 2024 and returned to action last year only to post a 6.51 ERA in 13 starts. He’s right back on that pace this season, with a 6.86 ERA after eight appearances and a single-digit swinging-strike rate.
That second point is especially salient for Clemens, who brings big power but a lot of whiffs to the plate. He shouldn’t have too hard of a time making contact tonight, which typically leads to good things for him.
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Pictured: Reid Detmers
Photo Credit: Imagn
