The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cam Schlittler (R) $10,000 New York Yankees (-231) vs. Baltimore Orioles
We have some strong options at or near the top of the salary scale tonight, but the strongest choice is also the most expensive. That would be the Yankees Cam Schlittler, who has been dominant to start his second big-league season.
Just a couple of starts ago, we were getting massive value on Schlittler, with his price tag at $8,600. That was clearly massive value for a pitcher with a 1.51 ERA and strikeout rate north of 30%, making him an obvious choice pretty much every start. The market has finally caught up to his dominant numbers, though, moving him from “clear best play” to “firmly in the conversation.”
Still, as good as he’s been, I would only consider fully fading him in bad matchups. This isn’t an ideal spot, with the Orioles a perfectly average (100 wRC+) offense against righties, but that’s not enough to put me off Schlittler, especially since Baltimore strikes out at the third-highest rate against righties.
All things considered, he has a somewhat wide range of outcomes tonight, since Baltimore putting up a few early runs and Baltimore striking out 10 times both seem fairly equally likely. Schlittler isn’t quite a must play at 40% ownership and $10,000, but he leads our median and ceiling projections and is a strong option overall.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Trevor McDonald (R) $4,000 San Francisco Giants (+125) vs. San Diego Padres
Any time we can get a true starter (as opposed to an opener) priced at just $4,000, they’re going to pop as a top value in our models. That’s the case with Trevor McDonald, who is being called up from AAA to take the mound for the Giants tonight.
McDonald has a 1.80 ERA through 15 big-league innings in his career, with 13 of those innings coming in games he started. He’s split time between the rotation and bullpen in the minors so far this season, but even if he can give us three or four innings at his price point, he would be a massive value.
McDonald’s ceiling is relatively low, as he’s unlikely to last a long time or record a ton of strikeouts, but lineups with him can afford plenty of ceiling elsewhere. He leads our Pts/Sal projections by a comfortable margin.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jose Soriano (R) $9,600 Los Angeles Angels (-162) vs. Chicago White Sox
The high-end pivot from Schlittler is Jose Soriano, who is $400 cheaper, with similar numbers and lower ownership projections. He also gets a slightly better matchup against the White Sox, though it’s not a significant difference. Soriano’s 0.84 ERA is almost certainly unsustainable, with his ERA predictors around 3.00, but that doesn’t mean regression is coming tonight.
Davis Martin (R) $7,800 Chicago White Sox (+135) at Los Angeles Angels
Soriano’s opponent, Davis Martin, also has an unsustainable 1.95 ERA, but he has something else going for him. That would be a matchup with the Angels, who strike out against righties at the highest rate in the league. Martin isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher, but he could be tonight, and he’s a solid value with a 99% Bargain Rating in our models. He’s a GPP dart-throw option only but could be a fun one.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
There’s no game at Coors Field or Sutter Home Park on the main slate, but we’ve got something even better.
That would be the Cubs, who have been a much better lineup this season than either of the home teams in those stadiums – plus they have some ridiculous hitting weather tonight. According to Weather Edge, the conditions at Wrigley tonight boost home runs by more than 50% and total scoring by more than 30%.
“Surely that’s based on a tiny sample size!” you, an astute reader, would say. Except it isn’t, with more than 60 games of data that match the current conditions at Wrigley. Plus, they have an elite matchup against Chase Petty ($6,800) of the Reds, who is being called up to the bigs despite a 4.38 ERA in AAA this season.
The Cubs have a team total of 7.0(!) with an average price of around $4,000 per player, making them the clear best option for GPPs so long as the rain holds out long enough for them to play.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Trent Grisham OF ($3,700) New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Shane Baz)
While I typically use PlateIQ to showcase hitters’ splits, we also have a similar function for pitchers. Something that stood out to me today was the Oriole’s starter Shane Baz’s numbers against lefties:
That’s a lot of red and is particularly worrisome given the matchup with the Yankees tonight. New York has four lefties in the first five spots of their projected lineup, and the one righty is Aaron Judge ($6,500).
Grisham stands out as a screaming value at just $3,700 and with good career numbers against right-handed pitching. Plus, he’s the leadoff hitter in a lineup implied for 5.1 runs, which would make him a strong play regardless of any other information.
TJ Friedl OF ($3,500) Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (Edward Cabrera)
Thanks to a more difficult pitching matchup, the Reds aren’t projecting quite as well as the Cubs for their game with excellent hitting conditions at Wrigley. However, their 4.9-run implied total is still one of the top marks on the slate.
That makes Friedl yet another underpriced leadoff hitter at just $3,500. Like Grisham, he’s struggled this season with a batting average barely over .200, but his .250 BABIP points to some positive regression coming his way. Part of that number is due to hitting too many weak fly balls, but with the extreme wind at Wrigley tonight, those might end up leaving the park.
Will Smith C ($3,800) Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros (Steven Okert)
It looks like the Astros are using an opener/bullpen game for the start of their series against the Dodgers, as listed starter Steven Okert ($4,000) has thrown just 15 innings in 17 appearances so far in 2026. That’s not typically a great thing for the team going that route, unless they have an extremely deep and strong bullpen.
Due to that, the Dodgers have a 5.4-run implied total. Smith is reasonably priced for his #3 spot in that lineup, especially since he’s a catcher and points are usually harder to find there. While I’d prefer to roster his superstar teammates, Smith is an easy way to get some cheap exposure to the best lineup in baseball.
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Pictured: Cam Schlittler
Photo Credit: Imagn
