The NBA Playoffs are a week old, and this Saturday features another four games spread throughout the day to give NBA DFS managers plenty of good options to choose from on the board. The action starts with a pair of Game 3 matchups as the Pistons visit the Magic and the Suns host the Thunder. The latter two games are each Game 4 matchups, as the Knicks take on the Hawks before the Nuggets and Timberwolves close out the night in Minnesota. In both of those late games, the lower seed has a 2-1 series lead and home-court advantage and is looking to take a commanding 3-1 lead. The main slate tips off at 1:00 p.m. ET, but there are contests throughout the day for each game and a two-game night slate, presenting plenty of ways to get your team on the court this Saturday.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at point guard, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position, indicating he’s an excellent value for his salary under $10,000.
SGA had an off game in Game 1, but he still managed 44.5 DraftKings points on 25 points in 29 minutes in his team’s blowout win. In Game 2, he was much better with 37 points in 38 minutes and nine assists on his way to 58.2 DraftKings points.
While the Thunder are comfortably in front of the Suns 2-0 and have won both games in the series comfortably, SGA will have to step up more in Game 3 since Jalen Williams (hamstring) is out, leaving plenty of work and usage in OKC’s rotation. SGA already has a huge workload, but it could be expanded even more in Game 3, giving him a higher ceiling and making him a higher value than the other star point guards on the board.
Value
After a pair of huge games to give his team the 2-1 series lead, Hawks point guard CJ McCollum has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of any point guard on the slate. McCollum joined Atlanta as part of the trade that sent Trae Young to Washington and stepped right into a meaningful role, especially in the playoffs.
He finished the regular season on a roll, averaging 36.0 DraftKings points per game over his last 16 games in the regular season and the postseason, dating back to mid-March.
He started the series with a solid 32.75 DraftKings points in Game 1, with 26 points but just one assist. In Game 2, he had six assists and two steals to go with his 32 points, finishing with 51.25 DraftKings points. As the series shifted to Atlanta, he had 23 points, five rebounds and 37.75 DraftKings points, exceeding salary-based expectations for the seventh straight game.
McCollum has been outstanding in the playoffs in his career and has stuffed the stat sheet and come up clutch throughout this series. His salary has climbed due to his great production, but he’s still a good value in our models.
Fast Break
Cade Cunningham has produced over 50 DraftKings points in each game in the Pistons-Magic series, and his salary is just over $10,000. If it wasn’t for the Williams’ injury, he probably would have the top stud spot, but with SGA getting more usage, Cunningham seems a little overpriced even though he always brings an extremely high ceiling.
Jalen Brunson actually has the fourth-highest ceiling production on this stacked point guard slate, and he had a series-low 38.25 DraftKings points in Game 3 on the road. If the Knicks want to avoid a 3-1 hole, they’ll need Brunson to come up huge like he usually does in the biggest spots. Atlanta’s excellent defense makes him not as strong a play as Cunningham or SGA, but he still has the potential to go off and take over the game.
Especially without Williams, Ajay Mitchell will play a key role for the Thunder. The 23-year-old guard played 57 games for OKC this year, including 16 starts, and he has averaged 26.2 DraftKings points in 25.8 minutes. In his 26 games without Mitchell, his usage rate increased by over 1.3 percentage points, and he averaged 28.6 DraftKings points. He was already involved with 23.8 and 31.8 DraftKings points in the first two games of the series, and his value and upside are much higher in his expanded role, which he’ll step into for as long as Williams is out. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at point guard.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, Anthony Edwards has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard. Edwards also has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard, behind only McCollum. In the FantasyLabs projections, Edwards has a slightly higher Plus/Minus projection than McCollum.
Edwards missed time before the playoffs and was questionable with “knee injury maintenance” before each of the first three games in the series. It hasn’t slowed him down, though, since he had 49.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 on 22 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists in 38 minutes. Despite his heaviest workload since March 1, he was ready to go for Game 2, dropping 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 53.5 DraftKings points as the Timberwolves pulled out the five-point win to even the series.
He had a much quieter Game 3 with just 17 points and 27.75 DraftKings points, but he only had to play 24 minutes in the Timberwolves’ blowout victory. He exited to the locker room in the fourth quarter of Game 3 for undisclosed reasons but returned to the bench. He’s not on the injury report, but he does bring a little extra risk due to his injury issues. If he’s healthy, he does a lot of everything for Minnesota and brings a very high ceiling at his salary under $9,000.
Value
On the other side of that same matchup, Christian Braun and Bruce Brown have the highest Plus/Minus projections of the shooting guards under $5,000. In the FantasyLabs projections, they have the third and fourth-highest Plus/Minus projections at the position behind only Edwards and McCollum.
Like many of the Nuggets, Braun is looking to bounce back from an ugly Game 3. He only had two points and 6.5 DraftKings points in that contest, but he put up 24.5 and 31.75 DraftKings points in the first two games, which would be enough to make him a good value under $5,000.
Brown has been very good as a bargain play, exceeding his salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games dating back to the regular season. He had 31.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 18.5 DraftKings points in Game 3. He’ll continue to be a key piece off the bench, and the veteran has enough playoff experience to be a key contributor in the postseason for Denver. He probably won’t go off for a huge game, but at $3,700, he doesn’t have to do much to return excellent value.
Fast Break
Devin Booker and Jalen Green have each struggled in the series against the Thunder. Each of them has finished under their salary-based expectations in the first two games of the series, and if the Suns want to get a win in their first home game of the set, they’ll need one or both to step up with a bigger performance despite the tough matchup. The Shot Quality projections give Booker the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position.
With Edwards playing a lighter workload in Game 3 due to the game scenario and possibly an injury issue, Ayo Dosunmu stepped up with 25 points and 41.25 DraftKings points. Dosunmu can step into a larger role when called upon and fill the stat sheet with production across multiple categories.
For OKC, Cason Wallace and Luguentz Dort are candidates to help carry the load with Williams out, making them bargain plays with good upside. Both are excellent defensive stoppers, and if they get more usage on offense, they have the ability to be a streaky contributor. Wallace didn’t score at all in Game 2, but he still had 16.5 DraftKings points due to his solid non-scoring numbers.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
In both sets of projections, Dyson Daniels has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position. Daniels has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, and he is finding meaningful ways to contribute on both ends of the floor.
Even though his offensive role has been a little smaller with McCollum stepping in, Daniels had 11 assists, nine rebounds, and 36.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 39.25 DraftKings points on eight points, 13 rebounds, six assists, and three steals over 33 minutes in Game 3. He only chipped in 20 DraftKings points in Game 2, but he played fewer minutes in that contest.
Daniels can absolutely stuff the stat sheet when he’s at his best, and he finished the regular season with a triple-double that earned him over 50 DraftKings points. He was better at home than on the road this year, averaging 35.5 DraftKings points in his 37 regular-season home games. He turns in excellent non-scoring numbers and brings a very high ceiling at just $6,000.
Value
In both sets of projections, Jaden McDaniels has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections at small forward. McDaniels came up huge for the Wolves in Game 3, and he has flashed a high ceiling in the playoffs several times over the last few seasons.
McDaniels had 20 points, 10 boards, and 43 DraftKings points in 41 minutes in Game 3. It was the perfect time for his first double-double of the season, since he had not had double-digit rebounds all season.
Especially if Edwards is at less than 100%, McDaniels could again play a key role for the Timberwolves in Game 4. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games dating back to the regular season, and he brings both a high ceiling and high floor with his multi-category contributions.
Fast Break
In the ShotQuality projections, Franz Wagner has the second-highest ceiling projection at small forward behind Daniels. Wagner had 19 points and 34.25 DraftKings points in the Magic’s Game 1 upset but only 12 points in Game 2. He still had good non-scoring numbers to put up 29.25 DraftKings points, and he’s another solid, stable mid-range option at the position since he produces in so many categories.
Cameron Johnson has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward in the FantasyLabs projections. He has been a letdown overall for the Nuggets since joining them via offseason trade, and in this series, he has been held under 20 DraftKings points in each game. He has tons of upside but just hasn’t been able to unlock it in Denver. If Aaron Gordon (calf, questionable) misses a second straight game, Johnson will have another chance to step into a larger role.
Another member of the Thunder rotation with a chance to step up without Williams is Alex Caruso, who has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection at small forward in the FantasyLabs projections. Caruso had only 9.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 but played more minutes in Game 2 on his way to 17.5 DraftKings points. Caruso has proven that he can be a playoff contributor in the past, and he should get some of the minutes available without Williams.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The ShotQuality projections give Jalen Johnson the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward for this Saturday’s slate. He’s an expensive play to build around at over $9,000, but he brings an elite ceiling.
Johnson had a huge Game 3 after a couple of quieter games in New York. He finished with 56 DraftKings points on 24 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists in 38 minutes. It was a huge improvement over his 37.25 and 32 DraftKings points in the first two games and helped fuel his team to the Game 3 victory.
In his breakthrough season, Johnson has showcased triple-double potential when he’s at his best and can totally take over slates from a fantasy perspective. He had been a little bit cooler over the last few weeks, but if Game 3 was his “get right” game, the Knicks could be in trouble since he brings so much potential as a dynamic producer in multiple categories.
Value
The ShotQuality projections give Tobias Harris the highest Plus/Minus projections at power forward, while the FantasyLabs projections have him second at this position. Both projections give him the sixth-highest median projection at power forward, but his salary under $6,000 still makes him worth a look if you can’t spend up on a star. He has the best projections of all the power forwards under $7,000.
Harris had a very nice, 16-point, 11-rebound double-double in Game 2 against Orlando, finishing with 40.25 DraftKings points after a solid 34 DraftKings points in Game 1. As the veteran on a mostly younger team, he is picking up more responsibility in the postseason, and he has turned that into very solid fantasy production.
He played parts of four seasons in Orlando early in his career, so there’s a revenge game narrative to consider as well, although his recent production and expanded role make him a strong play even without that element.
Fast Break
Chet Holmgren has the highest Plus/Minus projection and the highest median projection at power forward in the FantasyLabs projections since he will help pick up the workload with Williams out. Holmgren has been solid but not spectacular, with 33.25 and 37 DraftKings points in his two games in this series, but the extra workload makes him an even better option to consider on Saturday afternoon.
On the other side of that matchup in the desert, Dillon Brooks has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward in the ShotQuality projections. He had 30.25 and 41 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series, exceeding salary-based expectations in each contest.
Naz Reid is a solid play if you go cheaper at power forward, with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $5,000 in both sets of projections and the third-highest overall at the position. He had a down Game 3, but he always brings the potential to fill it up off the bench. His reduced salary makes him a solid value if minutes and usage come his way Saturday night.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Just like on Thursday, Nikola Jokic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate in both sets of projections and is the most expensive play on the slate by a wide margin at $12,600.
In Game 3, Jokic had a very unusual down performance, ending up with “just” 54.75 DraftKings points in 35 minutes. He had 62.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 57.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. His triple-double in Game 1 led his team to victory, but he came up two assists short in Game 2, and the Nuggets lost by five points.
The Nuggets will need the Joker to bounce back and put up a big game, and if he does, he can blow away even his lofty salary-based expectations. It is tricky to build a well-rounded roster around his huge salary, but if you can find enough value in other spots, Jokic is a strong play to consider. It’s extremely rare that he has an off game, and it would be even rarer for him to have back-to-back downers.
Value
Part of the reason for Jokic’s down game was strong defense from Rudy Gobert, who has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all centers in both sets of projections.
Gobert had 37 DraftKings points on 10 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists in 37 minutes in Game 3, and he also had a very solid Game 1 with 34.5 DraftKings points on 17 points and 10 rebounds.
He is obviously in a key matchup against Jokic and will continue to get as many minutes as he can handle with double-double potential and the ability to dominate on the glass. Gobert has at least 10 rebounds in 12 of his last 14 games dating back to the regular season, and that steady production and significant workload give him a high floor in Game 4 Saturday night.
Fast Break
If you can’t quite afford Jokic but still want a player with a high ceiling, Karl-Anthony Towns has the second-highest projections across the board at the position. He actually could be a better value if you use the savings wisely in other spots, since he comes so much cheaper than Jokic. KAT had 21 points and 17 boards for 56.75 DraftKings points in a monster Game 3 performance. The Knicks came up short, but it was Towns’ best fantasy game in six weeks.
Isaiah Hartenstein has been solid against the Suns and is another steady mid-priced option at center. He hasn’t gone off for a monster game in a while, but he also hasn’t put up an awful game. In each of the first two games of this series, he edged out his salary-based expectations with 24.5 and 28.0 DraftKings points. He hasn’t had to play huge minutes in either game and should continue to bring a high floor as a mid-range option Saturday.
If you’re looking for a bargain center, Oso Ighodaro has good upside at only $4,400 since he is absorbing so much work without Mark Williams (foot). Ighodaro didn’t score in Game 1 but still ended up with 15.2 DraftKings points in 26 minutes. In Game 2, he played 29 minutes and had 25.5 DraftKings points on seven points, eight rebounds, and five assists. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection of centers under $5,000 in the ShotQuality projections and should get all the minutes he can handle in Game 4.
