With just a few days left in the NBA regular season, Thursday night’s schedule features six games on the scoreboard, with the first five of those contests on the main DFS fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings. All 30 teams are in action both on Friday and Sunday, so all 10 of the teams in the player pool on Thursday night are on the front end of a back-to-back. Many key players have already been ruled out, and several others are questionable, so be sure to check back for updates as injury statuses are finalized. Making the right last-minute pivots is key to fantasy basketball success, especially at this time of the season.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
One of the main absences on Thursday night is Josh Giddey (hamstring), who will miss his third straight game, leaving plenty of work for Tre Jones, who has stepped up as a top producer for the Bulls since returning from his own injury issues. Jones gets a great matchup against the Wizards and has the third-highest median projections at the position, with a very strong Projected Plus/Minus, indicating he has a strong chance to return value at his salary just over $7,000.
Jones has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 34.7 DraftKings points in 27.7 minutes per contest. He had 29 points, six assists, and 45.25 DraftKings points against the Suns on Sunday and followed that up with 20 points and nine assists against the Wizards on Tuesday in the first game of this series in Washington.
Without Giddey, Jones should again have an expanded workload and be a strong anchor for your lineups this Thursday night. He can stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories when at his best, and he is in position for a big workload again on Thursday. His Bulls have the highest implied team total on the board this Thursday, according to our Vegas dashboard.
Value
The Nets and Pacers meet in a matchup of two of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference, and each team has a long list of injuries as well. The game should have plenty of value for fantasy, though, since players who are extremely affordable should get major minutes in a favorable matchup. At point guard for the Nets, Nolan Traore will join Egor Demin on the sidelines, leaving Tyson Etienne, Malachi Smith, and Ben Saraf as good plays with the three highest Plus/Minus projections on the entire slate.
Etienne has the highest Plus/Minus on the slate and is coming off 20.2 DraftKings points in 29 minutes on Tuesday. He has at least 17 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, and five of his last seven. The two-way player will likely continue to get lots of work in the Nets’ last three games of the season.
Smith played even more minutes than Etienne on Tuesday, logging 37 minutes in the win over the Bucks and contributing 11 points, five rebounds, four assists, and 25.2 DraftKings points. He scored double-digit points in four of his last eight games, with a high point of 18 points and 34 DraftKings points against the Kings.
Saraf is more expensive than those two bargain options under $4,000, but he is also likely to get the most minutes of the trio. He had 19 points and 32.75 DraftKings points against the Bucks on Tuesday and can be a very solid mid-range target in this favorable matchup Thursday night.
Fast Break
Both the Sixers and Rockets are playing for seeding still, so Tyrese Maxey and Amen Thompson are solid pay-up plays to consider. Maxey has the highest projections at the position, although he is a higher risk with both Joel Embiid and Paul George in the lineup helping to carry the load.
For the Celtics, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown are each questionable against the Knicks, which could open up major work for Payton Pritchard if either or both sit out. If White plays and Brown sits, he would also be worth a look with extra usage. The Celtics can clinch the No. 2 seed with a win.
Besides the Nets, the top Plus/Minus projection at point guard is from Rob Dillingham of the Bulls, who had a big game with 26 points, seven rebounds, and 42.25 DraftKings points against the Wizards on Tuesday. He came to Chicago in the Ayo Dosunmu trade and could get another chance to showcase his upside on Thursday.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
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When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, Collin Sexton has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard, and he also has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection, behind only Etienne and Smith of the Nets.
Sexton has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games for the Bulls and has been filling up the stat sheet while helping to fill in for multiple absences. Over his last nine games, he’s averaging 33.7 DraftKings points, and he has 30+ DraftKings points in seven of those nine contests.
In his last two games without Giddey available, Sexton had 35.75 DraftKings points against the Suns and 43.75 DraftKings points against the Wizards. He’ll take on Washington again on Thursday, and his positional versatility with both shooting guard and small forward eligibility makes him easy to fit into almost any roster build.
Value
In the midst of all the Bulls and Pacers value options, Rockets wing Tari Eason also stands out as a strong value to consider. Eason has been able to find his scoring rhythm again lately after struggling for much of March, and he has a top-eight Plus/Minus projection at both shooting guard and small forward in the ShotQuality projections.
Eason has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games, with at least 10 points and over 25 DraftKings points in each of those five contests. He had 12 points, seven boards, and 29.25 DraftKings points in 31 minutes in Tuesday’s win over the Suns, and he has a very high ceiling when he gets expanded playing time, which he should get once again on Thursday night against the Sixers.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard if he plays through his questionable tag. He has continued to post huge numbers even after the return of Jayson Tatum, and he has still exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games, with an average of 50.5 DraftKings points per game. The Celtics could opt to go all in and get their win on Thursday to lock up the second seed, or they could hold Brown out and get him rest before the playoffs.
For the Heat, Norman Powell is questionable after missing four straight games, but if he’s out or plays just a few minutes, Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. would continue to get more work. The Heat are in Toronto to face the Raptors, with playoff seeding still at stake for each team.
Nets rookie Drake Powell has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games and should get all the minutes he can handle on Thursday. He played 40 minutes and had 23.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday. He shot just 4-for-16 from the field, but the fact that he’s so active and getting so many shots gives him a high ceiling against the Pacers on Thursday.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The ShotQuality projections give Kevin Durant the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on Thursday, since the Rockets still have plenty to play for and the veteran has been carrying a full workload in recent matchups.
Durant had 59 DraftKings points against the Warriors on Sunday with 31 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds. He had a slower game with just 35 DraftKings points against the Suns, but that should help him be a little more well-rested for this showdown against the Sixers. He had 40+ DraftKings points in four straight before his down game Tuesday and is averaging 47 DraftKings points per game over his last nine contests.
When he faced the Sixers earlier this season, Durant had 36 points, seven rebounds, three assists, and 49.75 DraftKings points. Houston will be looking for its eighth straight win and has a chance to move past the Lakers (who play later) for the No. 4 seed, which would get them homecourt advantage. The situation makes KD one of the few pay-up plays who is a reliable piece to build around this Thursday.
Value
Since arriving in Chicago, Leonard Miller has been a solid contributor for the Bulls, and he should continue to be in a good spot to produce against the Wizards on Thursday night. He has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the position and comes at a very solid midrange salary, just over $5,000.
Miller had a double-double against the Suns on Sunday with 17 points, 10 boards, and 33.5 DraftKings points. He followed that up with 13 points, eight rebounds, and 29 DraftKings points on Tuesday in the first game against Washington and is a solid pick to get near that level again on Thursday.
In 14 of his last 15 games, Miller has scored double-digit points, including each of his last five games. He’s shown a high ceiling and should be very heavily involved in this smash spot Thursday night.
Fast Break
Paul George has been very effective since returning from suspension. In his seven games since returning, he averaged 46 DraftKings points per game, although he did settle down with under 40 DraftKings points in each of his last two contests.
The Nets’ Jalen Wilson has the highest Plus/Minus projection at small forward in the ShotQuality projections but has been very up and down over his last few games. He has a high ceiling with plenty of usage available, but he is a boom-or-bust play even against the Pacers.
Speaking of the Pacers, Jarace Walker is questionable after a big game on Tuesday, but if he plays through his injury, he could be a solid mid-range value as well.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Depending on how the Celtics approach Thursday’s game, Jayson Tatum could be asked to carry a huge workload, or the C’s could let him coast a little bit. The team needs to only win one of their three remaining games, or have the Knicks lose one of their three remaining games, to secure the No. 2 seed.
If Brown, White, or both sit out, Tatum could carry a huge workload against New York, or he could also take it easier with games on Friday and Sunday to finish his tuneup for the postseason. The projections give him the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all power forwards despite the uncertainty.
His recovery from his Achilles injury has been remarkably impressive. He exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games, producing 50+ DraftKings points in each contest and averaging 57.5 DraftKings points per game. After that six-game stretch, he did have a slower game against the Hornets on Tuesday, with “just” 37.75 DraftKings points on 23 points in 39 minutes.
He’s back to a big workload and could be out to make a statement as he returns to where his injury occurred less than a full calendar year ago.
Value
While bargain options from the Nets and Bulls (highlighted in Fast Break below) have the top Plus/Minus projections in the ShotQuality projections, Will Riley stands out as a great midrange play with a high ceiling for the Wizards as they take on the Bulls.
Riley only had two points on a dismal 1-for-13 shooting performance on Tuesday with only 17 DraftKings points, but he’ll be looking to get back on track in this rematch.
Before that down game, he had big performances against the Heat and Nets over the weekend. On Saturday, he had 31 points and 48.2 DraftKings points against Miami, and then on Sunday had 30 points and 43.5 DraftKings points against the Nets.
Riley has had an impressive finish to his rookie season and will look to continue that in his last three games before the offseason.
Fast Break
In addition to Miller, Patrick Williams and Guerschon Yabusele have very strong Plus/Minus projections as bargain plays for the Bulls. Williams had 20 points and 46.25 DraftKings points in the first game against the Wizards and will look for another big game Thursday.
The two bargains from the Nets at power forward are Jalen Wilson (discussed above) and Chaney Johnson, who had 20+ DraftKings points in three straight games before playing fewer minutes on Tuesday. With all the absences on Thursday, though, he should be back in a big enough role to be a strong bargain play.
At the other end of the salary structure, Scottie Barnes always brings a high ceiling as a multi-category producer and should carry the load as the Raptors look to handle the Heat in Toronto. Toronto is still in the very crowded race for seeding in the Eastern Conference.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid edges out Bam Adebayo for the top projections at center in the ShotQuality projections, and he and the Sixers will look to pick up a statement win in Houston on Thursday. Embiid is an expensive play at almost $10,000, but he has an extremely high ceiling.
On Monday, he had 34 points, 12 rebounds, and 59 DraftKings points against the Spurs, and he also had a double-double with 19 points, 13 rebounds, and seven assists for 53.25 DraftKings points in his previous game against the Timberwolves.
He’s played big minutes in the games he has taken the floor for, and he should be set for a heavy workload again on Thursday before likely getting Friday, Sunday, or both off to finish the regular season. It’s a good matchup for Embiid, and he is a strong pay-up option to build around in the middle.
Editor’s note: Embiid has been ruled out.
Value
In the FantasyLabs projections, Wizards big man Julian Reese has the third-highest Plus/Minus projections at center after exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games.
In those nine games, he has averaged 33.6 DraftKings points per contest, and he has at least nine rebounds in five straight games, with three double-doubles during that span. He had 26 points, 17 rebounds, and 51.25 DraftKings points against the Jazz at the start of that run and had 44 and 46.25 DraftKings points in his last two games.
On Tuesday against the Bulls, he had 17 points, 11 boards, and 46.25 DraftKings points, and he’ll be a great mid-range option if he gets a similar workload in the rematch Thursday.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo has a better Plus/Minus projection than the other elite options on the board and always brings a high ceiling. He and the Heat are trying to gear up for the postseason, though, so they may not go all-out while trying to get pieces as healthy as possible for the Play-In Tournament next week.
Along with Guerschon Yabusele, Lachlan Olbrich is a good bargain play for the Bulls. Olbrich had seven points and seven boards for 26.75 DraftKings points in the first matchup between these teams, and he has good bargain upside with a similar role projected for Thursday.
The Pacers have been playing Micah Potter and Jay Huff plenty of minutes at center coming down the stretch, and both big men have good Plus/Minus projections against the Nets on Thursday night.
Pictured: Kevin Durant
Photo Credit: Imagn
