The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert (R) $9,500 Seattle Mariners (-105) vs. New York Yankees
I mentioned in yesterday’s column that Seattle is the only ballpark that makes a significant difference for pitchers. That was part of my thesis for rostering both starters in the Mariners’ home game yesterday, and they each picked up 7 strikeouts in a game that finished 2–1. That thesis is even more applicable tonight, as the Mariners’ rotation rolls back around to their ace, Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert finished last season with a 3.44 ERA and a strikeout rate over 30%. His 2026 is off to a rougher start, giving up 3 runs in 5.1 innings in his debut, but his strikeout rate was enough to salvage a decent fantasy day in that outing. Of course, that game was on the road.
Just like Luis Castillo yesterday, Gilbert had extreme home/road splits last season. In away games, he had a 4.74 ERA. At home, it was less than half that figure, at 2.24. If the park factors in Seattle weren’t so extreme, I might consider these figures to be somewhat coincidental, but the trend is very strong across their pitching staff.
Betting markets have also caught on to the trend, with the Yankees implied for just 3.6 runs despite their strong lineup. Coupled with Gilbert’s elite strikeout ability, that is enough to give him the best median and ceiling projections on the slate by a comfortable margin.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Max Scherzer (R) $7,800 Toronto Blue Jays (-275) vs. Colorado Rockies
Another idea that I am running back from yesterday is rostering pitchers against the Rockies. Admittedly, it didn’t work out well yesterday, with Blue Jays starter Cody Ponce exiting early with an injury, but he was performing well up until that point.
Today we get Scherzer taking on the Rockies, with the 41-year-old making his 2026 debut. It is obviously hard to trust Scherzer at this point in his career and given his recent performance, but with the Rockies having one of the lowest implied totals on the slate, we can trust the markets if nothing else. I am not expecting a massive strikeout day from the veteran righty, but at his price tag, we don’t need one either.
We have Scherzer second in Pts/Sal projection behind only Jose Suarez ($6,300), but he is even harder to trust. Suarez has a tougher matchup with the A’s and was used primarily in relief last season, so he could pitch well and still be a letdown. He is my preferred GPP salary-saver over Scherzer, but for cash games and smaller tournaments, I would rather roster the 3-time Cy Young winner.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Brown (R) $9,700 Houston Astros (-150) vs. Boston Red Sox
Hunter Brown struck out 9 through 4.2 scoreless innings in his 2026 debut and has seemingly kicked the habit of poor starts to the season that have typically plagued him. Of course, that was against the Angels, and he gets a much tougher opponent tonight against Boston. The upside is that he likely gets to pitch a bit longer, which should balance that out, and with Boston only implied for 3.5 runs, the markets are on his side.
Shohei Ohtani (R) $9,000 Los Angeles Dodgers (-272) vs. Cleveland Guardians
It is the first start of the year for Ohtani, though he struck out 11 across 4 innings in an “exhibition start” last week. That he was allowed to throw 4 innings in a meaningless game is probably a good sign, since the limiting factor for Ohtani is how long he is allowed to stay in the game, not his effectiveness. The Guardians have the worst implied total on the slate, and Ohtani can obviously rack up strikeouts, so if he gets to even 5 innings, he could easily break the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
Our models remain a big fan of the concept of rostering as many players against the Rockies as possible, with the Blue Jays’ bats once again having the highest tournament rating in our models. Their 5-run performance yesterday was a bit of a letdown but nothing terrible, and they are projected for 5.4 today.
Much of that is due to a potentially juicy matchup with Rockies starter Ryan Feltner ($6,200). Colorado pitchers’ stats are always somewhat misleading since they play half of their games under terrible conditions, but he has a career ERA north of 5.00 with ERA predictors in the mid-4s. The latter numbers theoretically account for park factors, though, which makes him a below-average starter at best.
Plus, the Blue Jays are reasonably priced and give you the chance to get some correlation from a pitcher–hitter stack should you roster Scherzer.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($4,800) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Detroit Tigers (Casey Mize)
Arizona got to Detroit for 9 runs yesterday and is looking to keep that momentum going against the Tigers’ 5th starter, Casey Mize ($7,000). While Mize almost certainly deserves to be ahead of Justin Verlander in the Tigers’ rotation, it still makes sense to target hitters facing #5 starters today, where some lineups are forced to challenge the opponent’s ace.
Plus, the top of the Diamondbacks’ lineup has excellent numbers against righties, as we see in PlateIQ:
Colt Keith 3B ($3,700) Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
Detroit is implied for a healthy 4.8 runs against Arizona tonight, which means there are some solid values in their lineup. The downside is that it is hard to be confident in what that lineup looks like, with A.J. Hinch already back to his old tricks of shuffling the order on a daily basis.
Right now, we have Colt Keith projected to bat third, making him a screaming value at $3,700. It seems reasonably likely that he gets a spot near the top of the lineup given that he has started the season with a .429 batting average. It is no guarantee, though, so if rostering Keith or any Tigers, be sure to check back once lineups are officially announced to make sure they aren’t dropped down to the bottom.
Drake Baldwin C ($4,100) Atlanta Braves vs. Athletics (Aaron Civale)
Atlanta’s 5.1-run implied total is second on the slate, trailing only the Blue Jays. As such, it makes sense to get some exposure to them, especially against a pitcher who finished 2025 with a 4.85 ERA.
However, it is somewhat difficult given the salaries of their top hitters. That is where my interest in Drake Baldwin comes in. He is just $4,100 despite being projected to hit second in the lineup. Additionally, as a catcher, he is eligible for a position where points are much harder to come by in general. He has plenty of upside with 2 home runs through 4 games this season (and an .810 OPS as a rookie in 2025), which is extra valuable from his position.
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Pictured: Logan Gilbert
Photo Credit: Imagn
