The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo (R) $9,500 Seattle Mariners (-190) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Mariners came just short of making the World Series last season, largely due to the strength of their pitching staff. When healthy, they have five guys who all profile as above-average MLB starters.
Woo emerged as the team’s most consistent option in 2025. He pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA for the second straight year, and he racked up 9.55 strikeouts per nine innings. Most importantly, he was an absolute workhorse. He threw at least six innings in 27 of his 30 starts, including each of his first 25. It allowed him to rack up 15 wins, which was tied for fifth-most in all of baseball.
Woo gets to start his 2026 campaign with an excellent matchup. He’s taking on the Guardians, who are one of the weakest offensive teams in the league. They were 28th in wRC+ last season, better than only the lowly Pirates and Rockies. They were 27th against right-handers in particular, while ranking 15th in strikeout rate in that split.
Woo will also get to make his debut at home, which is another benefit. T-Mobile Park has historically been a pitcher-friendly venue. It has the best Statcast Park Factor for pitchers over the past three seasons by a pretty comfortable margin.
Woo ranks first on the slate with a 3.1 opponent implied team total, and no other pitcher is below 3.5. He’s also a comfortable -190 favorite, while his 5.89 K Prediction ranks third on the slate. He checks a lot of boxes and is the safest hurler to choose from on Saturday.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Chad Patrick (R) $7,700 Milwaukee Brewers (-194) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Brewers have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball over the past few seasons. No team won more games last year, despite the fact that their payroll is well below that of some of the biggest teams in the league. They’ll have to replace ace pitcher Freddy Peralta in 2026, but the Brewers have earned the benefit of the doubt.
They’re starting their season against the White Sox, and they picked up right where they left off in 2025. Their offense racked up 14 runs, while Jacob Misiorowski had 11 strikeouts while allowing just two hits in five innings.
Patrick isn’t the same caliber of pitcher as Misiorowski, but he’s coming off a quality campaign last year. He posted a 3.53 ERA and FIP, and he averaged better than a strikeout per inning.
That makes Patrick one of the best values of the day at just $7,700. He’s a massive -194 favorite, while the White Sox are implied for just 3.5 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have been solid investments, and Patrick ranks first in projected Plus/Minus by a comfortable margin. His 5.99 K Prediction also ranks second on the slate, so he has a bit of upside as well.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tyler Glasnow (R) $8,900 Los Angeles Dodgers (-245) vs. Diamondbacks
The rich continue to get richer. The Dodgers are arguably even better than they’ve been over the past two seasons, adding Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz to their back-to-back World Series-winning core. They’ve started 2026 with two straight wins, and Glasnow will get the ball in Game 3. When healthy, Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in the sport. He’s an absolute strikeout machine, notching at least 10.56 strikeouts per nine innings in eight consecutive seasons. Glasnow leads the slate in K Prediction, and he’s also the largest favorite of the day. That’s a pretty nice combination for fantasy purposes.
Reynaldo Lopez (R) $7,000 Atlanta Braves (-150) vs. Kansas City Royals
Lopez was one of the biggest surprises in baseball two years ago, posting a 1.99 in his first year with the Braves. His advanced metrics weren’t quite as impressive, but it was still good enough to earn his first All-Star appearance and an 11th-place finish in the Cy Young voting. Lopez was limited to just five innings last year due to injury, but he’s healthy and hoping to pick up where he left off for the Braves. He owns the top Leverage Score in our MLB Models, and he’s projected for less than 4% ownership vs. the Royals.
Cristian Javier (R) $7,600 Houston Astros (-149) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Javier is another pitcher who is looking to rebound from injury. He’s thrown less than 80 innings over the past two years combined, but the Astros will be counting on him after losing Framber Valdez in free agency. Javier has had some success in the past, and he gets a solid matchup vs. the Angels to start the year. Los Angeles was one of the most strikeout-prone teams in baseball last season, and their projected lineup has struck out in 30.0% of at-bats against righties over the past 12 months. That’s the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate, giving Javier some cheap strikeout upside as a moderate favorite.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers’ lineup is going to be in the mix on most slates this season. They have All-Stars and nearly every position across the diamond, including some of the best players in the entire sport. They were third in the league with 5.01 runs per game last year, and they’ve averaged 6.50 through their first two games this season.
The Dodgers will square off with Eduardo Rodriguez on Saturday. Rodriguez pitched well in the World Baseball Classic this season, but he’s been a mediocre arm for the Diamondbacks. He’s pitched to an ERA above 5.00 in each of the past two years, and his ERA was 6.23 in two starts vs. the Dodgers last year. Their lineup managed an OPS over 1.000 against him, so they can do some damage in this spot. The Dodgers are implied for 5.6 runs, and no other team on the main slate is implied for more than 5.1.
The bigger question is which Dodgers to choose in this matchup? Some of their best hitters are left-handed, and Rodriguez throws from the left side. Fortunately, their top six hitters in their projected lineup still grade out pretty well against southpaws (via Plate IQ):
As usual, the only real concern with the Dodgers’ lineup is their projected ownership. Only Freddie Freeman is projected for less than 10% ownership among their top-five batters, so they’re going to be chalk. They’re also expensive, so it’s going to be tough to pair the Dodgers with one of the stud hurlers. Still, they have the potential to break the slate every time they’re available.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B ($3,200) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox (Sean Burke)
Finding a value hitter to supplement an expensive stack or pitcher is always a viable strategy in DFS. Vaughn stands out as one of the best on Saturday. He had a breakout after landing with the Brewers last season, posting a .308 batting average with nine homers in 64 games played.
He’s expected to occupy the cleanup spot in the lineup against his former team on Saturday. Milwaukee has one of the top offensive expectations of the day, trailing only the Dodgers in terms of implied team total. Burke struggled to a 4.93 xERA for the White Sox last season, so it’s a great spot for Vaughn and the Brewers to keep the production rolling.
He ranks first in the Fantasy Labs projection set in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s third in that metric using the blended projection set.
Jorge Soler, OF ($2,800) Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
While Javier has some appeal against the Angels’ strikeout-heavy lineup, their batters also have some upside on this slate. They have lots of players with big power, and Javier struggled to a 4.62 ERA in limited action last year.
Soler didn’t have a great campaign in 2025, but his power is undeniable. He has two seasons with at least 36 homers, and he launched three long balls in 49 Spring Training at-bats. If he’s healthy to start the year, he’s a sneaky bet to get back to 30+ homers in 2025.
Soler ranks second in our blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s also projected for less than 10% ownership. He’s a boom-or-bust type of option, but he has plenty of upside for tournaments.
Colson Montgomery, SS ($4,100) Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers (Chad Patrick)
It’s hard to make a bigger splash than Montgomery did as a rookie. He played in just 71 games for the White Sox, but that didn’t stop him from slugging 21 homers. That’s elite power production, and his underlying metrics suggest it wasn’t a fluke. Now in his first full big-league season, Montgomery could be on the verge of becoming a star.
He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Patrick on Saturday, with Montgomery posting a 140 wRC+ and a .326 ISO against right-handers last year. $4,100 is an extremely fair price tag for a player with that kind of pop, and he could easily eclipse $5,000 in the near future.
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Pictured: Bryan Woo
Photo Credit: Imagn
