The NBA has a very busy Thursday with 10 games on the schedule. The first nine games on the scoreboard are part of the main DFS fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings, excluding the late game between the Timberwolves and Clippers. The Rockets, Kings, and Spurs are playing for the second night in a row as they go on the road for their Thursday night contest, while the Nets and Mavericks have another game on the schedule on Friday. Fantasy managers need to keep a close eye on the injury reports, especially for those teams playing on either side of the back-to-back games. As the availability of players is finalized throughout the day, the models will change and adjust, so be sure to check back before tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, Luka Doncic has the highest ceiling and floor projections of all players on the slate. He leads the Lakers into Phoenix to face the Suns, who are dealing with multiple injuries. With a favorable matchup, he has the potential to go off with a monster game, and he could live up to his salary, which is the highest on the slate at over $11,000.
Doncic has played three games since returning from his latest injury after the All-Star Break. He exceeded his lofty salary-based expectations in two of those three games, producing 74.5 DraftKings points against the Clippers and 59.25 DraftKings points against the Magic. He did have a down game against the Celtics in between those big games, but the Suns’ defense shouldn’t be nearly as strong with all their injuries.
Luka came just one rebound short of a triple-double in his last game against Orlando, and he took a lot of heat for not taking the potential game-winning shot at the end of the game. He will look to answer his critics with a monster game on Thursday and has a habit of posting huge games against the Suns. If you can find the salary savers in other roster spots to afford spending up on Luka, he’s a big-name stud who often lives up to his elevated salary.
Value
Two teammates bring the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board at point guard this Thursday. Scoot Henderson is a little cheaper and the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position, with Jrue Holiday second just behind him.
The Trail Blazers have a favorable matchup in Chicago against the Bulls, and these two guards will have to carry the load with Shaedon Sharpe (calf) and Deni Avdija (back) listed as out. Henderson has only played seven games this season but has scored double-digit points in each contest and is averaging 13.9 points, 5.1 assists, and 26.0 DraftKings points per game.
In his last two games, Henderson’s minutes have increased to 30 minutes against the Suns and 29 minutes against the Timberwolves. He put up 25.5 DraftKings points against the Suns but was even better in his most recent game with a season-high 33.5 DraftKings points on 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists on Tuesday.
Holiday had 22 points and 32.2 DraftKings points in that game as well, and he has at least 30 DraftKings points in seven of his last nine games, highlighted by a monster game against the Jazz, when he had 31 points and 54.2 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against the Jazz.
Both Blazers make sense to consider against the Bulls, who have been a great matchup to attack since they shuffled their roster at the trade deadline.
Fast Break
Tyrese Maxey has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position and is in a great spot against the up-tempo Heat. However, his usage could be reduced a little bit since Joel Embiid is probable. Maxey has carried the team coming out of the break with 60+ DraftKings points in each of his last two games. In this pace-up spot, the Sixers have the third-highest implied team total on the board, according to our Vegas dashboard.
With all the injuries in Phoenix, Collin Gillespie will have to carry a heavy workload in the backcourt against the Lakers. Gillespie and the Suns will be without Devin Booker (hip), Dillon Brooks (hand), Jordan Goodwin (calf), and Cole Anthony (away from the team). Gillespie has at least 25 fantasy points in four straight games coming out of the break and is a solid mid-range target with upside due to his extra work.
The Pelicans have the highest implied team total of the night as they take on the Jazz in Utah. Jordan Poole can be a good bargain play since he has re-entered the Pelicans’ rotation and has a salary just over $4,000. He had 23 points and 38.8 DraftKings points against the Sixers, followed by 12 points and 24.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors in his last two games. Even with Dejounte Murray back, minutes should still be available for Poole as long as Trey Murphy III (shoulder) remains out. Poole has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard this Thursday.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, rookie Kon Knueppel has the highest median and ceiling projections at shooting guard. He and the Hornets are in a very favorable matchup against the Pacers.
The No. 4 overall pick is averaging 19.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 34 DraftKings points per game, but he has been much hotter lately, with at least 45 DraftKings points in two of his last three games while scoring almost a point per minute. He didn’t need to play a full workload against the Bulls, cruising to 21 points and 30.75 DraftKings points in 23 minutes on Tuesday, so he should be fresh and ready to go for a big workload against the Pacers in Indiana.
Knueppel has showcased the ability to score points in bunches and contribute solid non-scoring stats to make him an elite fantasy stud to build around.
Value
The Bulls are still figuring out their backcourt after adding multiple pieces at the trade deadline, but for Thursday’s game against the Blazers, Collin Sexton should get plenty of opportunities to pile up fantasy points. Both Jaden Ivey (knee) and Anfernee Simons (wrist) are out, leaving Sexton lined up as a value play next to Josh Giddey.
Sexton played 28 minutes in Tuesday’s loss to the Hornets, totaling 10 points and 18 DraftKings points. The big boost to his minutes, though, could make him a great value under $5,000. He had 23.2, 29.75, and 25.2 DraftKings points in his first three games with the Bulls, playing at least 29 minutes in each of those games before settling into a smaller role.
With plenty of opportunities in a favorable matchup, Sexton should have the chance to return good value this Thursday.
Fast Break
Helping to carry the load with Franz Wagner (ankle) still out, Desmond Bane has been excellent for the Magic and put up a few monster games. He has at least 49 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and will look to help his team grind out a home win against the Rockets on Thursday night. He has the second-highest median and ceiling projections in the ShotQuality projections.
Max Christie has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection in the FantasyLabs projections and has returned after the break to help the Mavs beat the Pacers and Nets with 24 and 21.75 DraftKings points, respectively. He will continue to help carry the load for Dallas with Cooper Flagg (foot) and PJ Washington (ankle) out on Thursday.
The Trail Blazers inserted Kris Murray into the starting lineup against the Timberwolves in his third game back after a 19-game absence with a back injury. The 25-year-old stepped up with 16 points and 28.75 DraftKings points against Minnesota and will likely be in a similar scenario against the Bulls on Thursday. At only $3,800, he’s one of the best bargains on the board.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
While his pure ceiling may not be quite as high as the one offered by Brandon Miller, Michael Porter Jr., or Kevin Durant, Matas Buzelis has a salary about $2,000 cheaper than those other stud options, which makes him very easy to build around with lots of upside at both forward spots.
Buzelis has been a consistent contributor throughout the Bulls’ roster transition this season, and he is in a smash spot against the Trail Blazers on Thursday. He has the third-highest ceiling projection at small forward in both sets of projections and the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both sets of projections as well.
On Tuesday, Buzelis had a career-high 32 points, seven rebounds, and 47.75 DraftKings points against the Hornets. He has knocked down at least three three-pointers in four of his last six outings, with over 32 DraftKings points in each of those four games. He isn’t as established and “safe” as the other options, but his ceiling is extremely high as he looks to step up as a key piece of the Bulls’ rebuild.
Value
In the ShotQuality projections, Herbert Jones has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at small forward as he steps into a bigger role for the Pelicans against the Jazz.
Jones is a big part of the rotation for the Pelicans for his defense, but in a matchup like this, he can also chip in good numbers across the board. He comes with a very affordable salary of just $4,500 in Utah and has posted 23.75 and 25.75 DraftKings points in his last two games against the 76ers and Warriors. He had five steals, five points, three rebounds, and three assists in 31 minutes against Golden State, and he can stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories.
He also chipped in 14 points against the Sixers, so he can provide scoring when the team calls on him for that as well. With multiple paths to success, he’s a low-risk value play in a smash spot against Utah.
Fast Break
The ShotQuality projections give Michael Porter Jr. the highest median and ceiling projection at small forward, as his Nets take on the Spurs. MPJ has the potential to go off in any matchup since he’s the primary option for the Nets and has scored 20+ points in three of his last five games, with a high point of 44.25 DraftKings points against the Thunder during that run.
Helping to fill in for the Mavericks, Klay Thompson has one of the best Plus/Minus projections at both shooting guard and small forward. At just $4,000, he doesn’t have to do that much to be a good value play and is coming off a 17-point game against the Nets that boosted him to 24.5 DraftKings points. The shots should be available for the veteran on Thursday, and if he starts hitting, he could be one of the best bargains on the board.
Washington Wizards forward Jamir Watkins has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 straight games. He has averaged 22.0 DraftKings points in 27 minutes per game and should be set for big minutes again on Thursday when the Wizards visit the Hawks.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Speaking of the Hawks, Jalen Johnson has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward in both sets of projections and is very close to Luka Doncic for the top marks on the entire slate. He’s a little cheaper than Luka and is in a great matchup against the Wizards.
Johnson is questionable with a hip injury, and he was forced to leave the first game of this series against Washington after just six minutes on Tuesday. He had 12.75 DraftKings points in those six minutes, and he had been on a great roll before his early departure. If he plays through the questionable tag on Thursday, he brings a very high ceiling, even though his risk is a little higher. If the tag keeps his ownership lower, though, he could be a great spot to get some leverage.
As he has shown all season, he brings an extremely high ceiling with his average of 23.0 points, 10.6 rebounds, 7.9 assists, and 51.0 DraftKings points per game. He was over that average with 55+ DraftKings points in seven straight games before posting “just” 48.5 DraftKings points against the Nets and leaving Tuesday’s game early. If he’s able to give it a go, he’s a nice pay-up piece to build around Thursday.
Editor’s note: Jalen Johnson was ruled out.
Value
In the FantasyLabs projections, Guerschon Yabusele has the highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward, and he brings great potential as he helps fill in for Jalen Smith (calf), who is out for a while. Yabusele joined the Bulls at the trade deadline and has been busy since arriving in Chicago.
Yabusele has scored at least 11 points in three straight games and in five of his last seven. He had 36.75 DraftKings points last Saturday against the Pistons and followed that up with a double-double and 31.25 DraftKings points against his former team, the Knicks.
He settled down a little bit with 22.5 DraftKings points against the Hornets in his last game, but as long as he’s getting around 30 minutes a game, the Frenchman brings double-double potential with a great value ceiling.
Fast Break
Zion Williamson has reminded everyone of how good he can be when he’s healthy over the last few games. He has scored 20+ points in four straight games and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games, producing 48 DraftKings points against the Sixers and 39.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors in his two games in the last week. Against the Jazz, he’s a great option to build around
The Kings have been leaning heavily on veteran Precious Achiuwa for the last few games as they continue to deal with multiple injuries. Acuiway showed his upside with 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 41.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies on Monday and had 19 DraftKings points in 30 minutes on Wednesday. Depending on who the Kings rest or play on the second night of their back-to-back, Achiuwa could be one of the best options available. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward in the ShotQuality projections.
Nets forward Noah Clowney has been a boom-or-bust play, but at only $4,800, he brings nice value potential. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six games and is coming off 22 points and 34.25 DraftKings points against the Mavs on Tuesday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
If you can find value at other positions and are looking to spend up at center, it’s hard to argue against the very high ceiling that Spurs center Victor Wembanyama brings to just about every slate. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center and is right with Luka and Johnson at the top for the overall projections.
Wemby and the Spurs got a huge win in Detroit on Monday, and he posted 63.25 DraftKings points on 21 points and 17 boards. He had a much quieter night with only 37.5 DraftKings points in the Spurs’ win on Wednesday in Toronto, but he should be able to dominate down low as the team finishes a back-to-back against the Nets in Brooklyn.
He has proven he can put up monster stat lines even in limited minutes and always has the potential to go off with huge totals. If you have the salary, he’s a strong pay-up play this Thursday.
Value
In both sets of projections, Marvin Bagley III has the highest Plus/Minus projections on the entire slate by a wide margin. He will be playing his former team, the Kings, and he could be in for a big workload if Daniel Gafford (ankle, doubtful) doesn’t play.
Bagley finished Tuesday’s win with 22 points, five rebounds, and 29.2 DraftKings points. He has scored double-digit points in four of his six games with Dallas, including three double-doubles.
In his six games with the Mavs, Bagley is averaging 13.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, and 0.8 blocks over 22.8 minutes per game over that stretch. With the extra motivation of facing the Kings and all the work he can handle, he has a very high ceiling on Thursday.
Fast Break
It looks like Joel Embiid will return and be in a great spot against Miami. If he’s able to pick up where he left off before his most recent injury, he could be a strong play, but he could also be on a minutes restriction after missing five games. He’s high-risk, high-reward in this matchup.
Trail Blazers big man Donovan Clingan has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and has posted three double-doubles with at least 50 DraftKings points in his last four games. Against the smaller Bulls, he could be in for another huge game.
Achiuwa, Bagley, and Yabusele are all excellent values under $5,000, but if you want to go even cheaper, Nick Richards has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position in the ShotQuality projections, and he’s only $4,000.
Pictured: Marvin Bagley
Photo Credit: Imagn
