After an afternoon game from Berlin begins the NBA schedule this Thursday, the action continues with five games on Thursday night’s main DraftKings slate. The three games from the West Coast are on a separate slate, so all the games on the main slate start between 7:00 p.m. ET and 8:30 p.m. ET. Of the 10 teams on the main slate, only the Mavs and Jazz are playing for the second night in a row. There are several fun matchups and good places to attack for fantasy basketball, so let’s take a look at some strong early options in our models for Thursday. Be sure to check back for updates to our models as injury reports come out throughout the day.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Thunder visit the Rockets in one of the most exciting matchups of the night, and in that contest, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections of all point guards. SGA is an expensive piece to build around, but he does come with lots of upside even in this tough matchup against the soaring Rockets.
Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder beat the Spurs on Monday, with SGA leading the way with 34 points, five assists, five rebounds, four blocks, and 55.2 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. He’s averaging 51.5 DraftKings points per game on the season and has over 50 DraftKings points in three straight games, helping the Thunder bounce back after back-to-back losses with three straight home wins over the Jazz, Heat, and Spurs.
SGA has an elite ceiling and will have to step up in this tough road matchup. If you have the salary available, he’s a strong option to build around at point guard, although you’ll have to find salary savings in other spots.
Value
The Jazz and Mavs may not be the best teams on this 10-team slate, but their head-to-head matchup could be the most important source of value. The matchup has the highest over/under on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and since both teams have potentially significant injuries and are playing for the second day in a row, there should be plenty of opportunities for value plays to step up. In that matchup, Brandon Williams has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate in both the FantasyLabs and the ShotQuality projections.
Williams could have to carry more of the offense for Dallas since Anthony Davis (finger) is out, Max Christie (illness) was unavailable Wednesday, and rookie Cooper Flagg (ankle) left early and did not return to the Mavericks’ nine-point loss to the Nuggets. Without all those pieces, Willias delivered 20 points in 25 minutes and finished with 33.8 DraftKings points.
Williams has at least 27 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. The one exception was a game against the Jazz in which he was limited by a heel injury before missing back-to-back games with an illness. Now that he’s recovered from both the injury and the illness, he should be a key part of the Mavericks’ offense on Thursday. If Flagg and Christie are out, Williams will have to do lots of work against the Jazz, who have been the second-best matchup in the NBA for point guards this season.
Fast Break
Keyonte George has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at point guard behind only SGA and comes at a huge discount, with his salary just over $8,000. George and the Jazz take on the banged-up Mavericks in what should be a good spot for him. He had 53.75 DraftKings points against the Cavs on Monday and 40.25 DraftKings points against the Bulls on Wednesday. He took on more work without Lauri Markkanen (illness) on Wednesday and will get more usage again on Thursday if Markkanen remains out. The Jazz’s injury report will be one of the most important to watch for Thursday.
In the mid-range salary, Ryan Rollins stands out as one of the best values on the slate, with a top-five Plus/Minus projection at point guard in both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections. Rollins has scuffled in the scoring department in his last three games, but he brings a lot of bounce-back potential as the Bucks roll into San Antonio to face the Spurs.
If you’re shopping for a cheaper option in the backcourt, Jordan Goodwin is a solid contributor in the second unit for the Suns. He has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at point guard in both sets of projections, behind only Williams. Devin Booker (ankle) is questionable, and Goodwin would have a huge role and high ceiling if he gets more minutes and usage. Even if Booker plays, Goodwin could help carry more of the load and typically turns in strong non-scoring stats. If he is lined up for 20+ minutes, he’ll be a strong bargain play against the Pistons, even though Detroit has done a good job limiting opposing guards this season.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
At shooting guard, three options are very close at the top of the projections. Booker, Kevin Durant, and Derrick White each come with high ceilings. Of the three, White has the top median, ceiling, and floor projection in the FantasyLabs projections, and he also has the smallest salary of the three players, giving him the best Plus/Minus projection of the stud plays on the board.
White and the Celtics are visiting Miami on Thursday night, and no team in the NBA has been a better matchup for opposing point guards. White has a strong history against the Heat, and he comes in with some solid momentum as well. Even though the Celtics have lost three of their last four games, White’s totals have been solid overall. He had an off shooting night (7-of-21 from the field) on Monday against the Pacers without Jaylen Brown, but he should be able to thrive with Brown back in the mix Thursday.
In his last game with Brown, White had 54.75 DraftKings points against the Spurs with 29 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and two steals. He’s had over 51 DraftKings points in three of his last eight games and has averaged 42.6 DraftKings points per game. White lit up the Heat for 60.2 DraftKings points when they visited Boston in mid-December, and the Celtics will look to him to post a big game to help them get back on track after losing two tough games in a row.
Value
With Flagg and Christie potentially missing in Dallas, Jaden Hardy has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate in the FantasyLabs projections. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the ShotQuality projections, behind only his teammate Brandon Williams.
Hardy has shown the ability to pour in points when he gets playing time, and he has at least eight points in each of his last three games while stepping into a larger role. He logged 28 minutes on Wednesday but only had eight points on 3-of-11 shooting.
Since his salary is only $3,800, Hardy doesn’t have to do much to return excellent value, and he should get enough usage to allow plenty of value and plenty of salary to stack stars in other spots.
Fast Break
Besides Williams and Hardy, Naji Marshall and Max Christie are solid value plays to consider who can slot in at shooting guard. Their Plus/Minus projections aren’t as high as Williams’ and Hardy’s, but they are solid options at their price points. If Christie misses a second straight game, Hardy and Marshall would get even more work.
The Spurs have been getting great contributions from Stephon Castle, who has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all shooting guards not on the Mavs. Castle had a big game against the Thunder, finishing with a well-balanced 20 points, eight assists, seven rebounds, and 41.75 DraftKings points. The second-year guard has been a little quieter since De’Aaron Fox joined the Spurs’ rotation, but he still stuffs the stat sheet and has a favorable matchup against the Bucks on Thursday.
Castle’s teammate Julian Champagnie is also a solid mid-range play and had exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games before coming up just short in his last contest. He has over 25 DraftKings points in six straight games, and he brings some sneaky upside with 40+ DraftKings points in three of his last eight contests.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Especially in the FantasyLabs projections, Jaylen Brown has the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards by a wide margin. Brown missed Monday’s game with a back injury but is not on the injury report and should be all systems go for Thursday against the Heat.
Brown has averaged 47.4 DraftKings points per game this season but has been even stronger lately, averaging 49.2 DraftKings points per game over his last 12 contests. He has scored at least 23 points in all but one of his games since the start of December, and he torched the Heat for 30 points and 52.2 DraftKings points during that stretch.
If you can save enough salary in other spots, Brown is a strong pay-up play and has the best Plus/Minus projection of the top five ceiling projections on the entirety of Thursday’s slate in the FantasyLabs projections.
Value
Brown’s teammate Sam Hauser has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both small forward and power forward in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest at both positions in the ShotQuality projections.
Hauser is extremely affordable at only $4K, and he has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last three games. He has proven he can contribute with or without Brown in the lineup and had 32.2 DraftKings points in the Celtics’ win over the Raptors last Friday before missing Saturday’s game with hamstring tightness.
He has started each of his last five games, and if he plays alongside Brown and White on Thursday, he has a great shot at contributing good value production as a non-Maverick/Jazz option.
Fast Break
Brice Sensabaugh went off on Wednesday night for a career-high 43 points in Wednesday’s loss to the Bulls. He took advantage of Markkanen’s absence and produced 57.75 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. He has been getting more work recently, and he remains a boom-or-bust play on the wing in this favorable matchup against Utah.
For the Suns, Dillon Brooks has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games by scoring 20+ points and producing at least 33 DraftKings points in each of those games. If Booker is limited or out, he’ll be a strong small forward option.
Second-year forward Ryan Dunn would also be worth a look if Booker is out or limited, and he has flashed high upside for a player at just over the minimum salary at $3,100. Dunn had over 19 DraftKings points in two straight games before a down game on Tuesday. He’s volatile but worth a look if you need a small forward bargain.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
While Giannis Antetokounmpo has the best pure ceiling projection, his salary is so high that the models indicate that Alperen Sengun is a better option to build around if you can use the salary savings in other spots. Sengun has a positive Plus/Minus projection in the ShotQuality projections and has the second-highest ceiling, median and floor projections at the position in both sets of projections.
Sengun had 23 points, 11 assists, seven rebounds, and over 50 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the Bulls. He has played over 35 minutes in each of the two games since returning from a three-game absence because of an ankle injury. With that injury behind him, he should return to his role as a key contributor for the Rockets, just in time for this spotlight matchup against the Thunder.
In his first game against OKC this season, Sengun had 39 points, 11 rebounds, and 71.2 DraftKings points. While he may not be able to reach that level of effectiveness in the rematch, he should be a top consideration at PF, especially since he’s almost $2,000 cheaper than Giannis.
Value
P.J. Washington has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both forward spots in both sets of projections. Washington will likely have to carry the offensive workload for the Mavs as they take on the Jazz in a matchup he should be able to tear up on Thursday night.
He just returned from his own ankle injury, though, so be careful of the injury report to confirm he’s available for the second night of the back-to-back. If he does play, he’ll have a very high ceiling and a good floor because he’ll have so much usage.
When the Mavs took on the Jazz a month ago, Washington had 45.5 DraftKings points with 25 points and 14 rebounds. Like Sengun, he will have a hard time duplicating that line but should be able to at least return good value on Thursday night.
Fast Break
If all your salary savings in other spots allow you to have the salary available, Giannis’s pure ceiling is hard to dispute. He has at least 52 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games, highlighted by 64.5 DraftKings points against the Nuggets on Sunday. He had “just” 41 DraftKings points in Tuesday’s blowout loss, but he’ll be looking to make a statement against the Spurs as he tries to help keep the sinking Bucks’ season afloat.
Royce O’Neale is probable with a biceps contusion, and the versatile forward has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games, while producing 10.9 points, 5.7 boards, 3.1 assists, and 1.3 steals in 30 minutes per game in January. O’Neale is a solid mid-range target who could help the Suns by taking on more offense if Booker is limited.
As a bargain at power forward, Sam Hauser and Ryan Dunn (discussed above) make great plays, and you could also take a flier on Klay Thompson turning back the clock, depending on who exactly is in or out for the Mavs.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Bam Adebayo has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at center behind Sengun and the pricey Victor Wembanyama. He has a solid Plus/Minus projection in both sets of projections and should be in a solid matchup against the Celtics at home.
Adebayo is coming off 29 points, nine boards, and 53.75 DraftKings points against the Suns on Tuesday, which was his first game with over 40 DraftKings points in January. He’s run hot-and-cold with Tyler Herro working back into the rotation, but the Heat are at their best when the big man carries the offense.
Earlier this year, Adebayo had a double-double of 16 points and 10 rebounds for 36.5 DraftKings points in Boston. He should be able to put up even better numbers on Thursday since he has been much more efficent and productive in his home games than on the road overall this season.
Value
Of course, the top value at center is from the Mavs. Dwight Powell edges out Daniel Gafford for the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position, and the veteran Powell could be in for a huge workload depending on who else is available. Gafford (ankle) left Wednesday night’s game early along with Flagg, so it’s most likely that Powell will end up with all the minutes he can handle.
On Wednesday, Powell played 18 minutes and had 13.2 DraftKings points, but he was much better with 21 DraftKings points in 35 minutes against the Nets on Monday. Moussa Cisse didn’t play at all on Wednesday, even after Gafford departed, so it would seem that Powell will pick up more of the work on Thursday as well. Powell doesn’t have a super-high ceiling since he doesn’t typically score a lot of points, but at his $3,500 salary, he should get enough playing time to give you lots of flexibility in other spots and still deliver value.
Fast Break
Victor Wembanyama has monster upside and can break any slate with a huge performance. However, he’s pretty expensive in this showdown with Giannis, so unless you’re just seeking leverage and have extra salary to burn, Sengun or Adebayo seem like better per-dollar options.
Jusuf Nurkic didn’t play on Wednesday due to a coach’s decision. He wasn’t on the injury report but did not play for reasons that haven’t really been explained yet. Maybe they were saving him for Thursday, but that was never indicated (get ready for an investigation). If he plays on Thursday, he’ll be a solid play against the banged-up Mavericks. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last nine straight games, and he has posted 47+ DraftKings points in four straight. Will he play? Will we know? While I don’t know the answers to those questions, I do think he’ll be worth considering if he does return to the starting lineup–I’d just suggest having a pivot plan in place.
If you want a non-Mavericks play at center, Oso Ighodaro and Neemias Queta are the best bargain options available. Queta has been getting steady minutes for the C’s and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games. Ighodaro is even cheaper to build around in the middle, and if he gets 20+ minutes, he should be able to return good value.
Pictured: Jaylen Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn
