Monday features a small four-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Despite being the seventh-most expensive player on this slate, Derrick White has the second-highest ceiling with dual guard eligibility. There are two factors forcing White to the top of our NBA Model. One is the elite matchup against the Pacers, and the other is Jaylen Brown being doubtful to play tonight.
The Pacers have won back-to-back games but still have an 8-31 record and rank 20th in defensive rating and 10th in pace. They are allowing 119 points per game, which is the sixth-highest in the league. The Celtics beat the Pacers twice already this season by an average of 13 points per game.
With Brown off the floor this season, White has a team-high +9% usage rate boost and a +6.54 DraftKings Plus/Minus. White’s usage rate jumps to nearly 34%, which will put him in a great position to have a ceiling performance in this matchup. He is one of the best pay-up options on the slate.
Value
Another team dealing with injuries tonight is the Toronto Raptors. Starters Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl are all out, which will make this team a priority to target for value. Second-year pro Jamal Shead has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position tonight.
Shead is coming off his second start of the season, where he contributed 22 points and six assists in 37 minutes. He recorded 32.8 DraftKings points, which was his second-highest total in the season. Shead is projected to start again tonight and be one of the best values on the slate at his $4,400 price tag.
In back-to-back games, Shead is averaging 31 DraftKings points per game. That is more than enough to pay off his salary, which has barely increased. He is simply too cheap for his current role in this offense.
Fast Break
Tyrese Maxey is the most expensive player on this four-game slate and the only player with a five-figure salary. In five of his last seven games, Maxey has recorded at least 57 DraftKings points. During that seven-game stretch, Maxey is averaging 31.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 2.3 steals per game with two points and assists double-doubles. The matchup against the Raptors is what is keeping Maxey’s projections in check tonight, but he is a strong contrarian pay-up option at his sub-10% projected ownership.
Currently leading the slate in both projected Plus/Minus and projected ownership is Celtics’ point guard Payton Pritchard. He is another player who will benefit from the absence of Jaylen Brown. Pritchard also gets a significant usage rate and production boost with Brown off the floor this season. He has been consistent recently but does not quite have the same upside as Derrick White. However, Pritchard currently leads the slate with a 57.6% optimal lineup rate in our NBA Sims at his sub-$7,000 price tag.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Cavaliers are slowly starting to find their stride, winning five of their last seven games, and are 13-point home favorites against the Jazz tonight. They have a slate-high 131.75-point implied team total, which is far and away the highest on the slate. This game total is also an outrageous 250.5 points!
With this matchup being the best game environment to target, Donovan Mitchell is the clear-cut best player to target when spending salary tonight. He leads the slate in projected ceiling by a comfortable margin and is averaging 52.5 DraftKings points per game in his last five contests.
The Jazz rank dead last in defensive rating at 122.0, while allowing a league-high 127.3 points per game. Even in a projected blowout, Mitchell will have more than enough opportunity to get his against this atrocious defense. His $9,400 salary isn’t even that high considering this is such a small slate.
Value
Looking to dumpster dive in salary and fit in with the studs? Look no further than rookie guard Hugo Gonzalez. With shooting guard and small forward eligibility, Gonzalez is a cheap way to get exposure to the Celtics’ offense. Our model has Gonzalez projected to play 25 minutes, which is valuable given his $3,600 salary.
Gonzalez has been mediocre recently but has the potential for ceiling performances. In late December, Gonzalez had a five-game stretch where he recorded 25+ DraftKings points in four of those five contests, providing one points and rebounds double-double. Not only can Gonzalez score, but he can also rebound.
In his last 10 games, 60% of Gonzalez’s field goal attempts have come from behind the arc. The Pacers have a strong perimeter defense, but most of their attention will be geared towards White and Pritchard. The salary savings playing Gonzalez may not be needed on this small slate, but he is a great value option.
Fast Break
Staying with the Celtics’ flooded backcourt, Anfernee Simons is another player worth considering at $5,000. Simons struggled in his most recent game but averaged 28.2 DraftKings points per game in his previous seven contests. He is a consistent fantasy producer recording DraftKings points mainly through his volume scoring. During that seven-game stretch, Simons averaged 17 points per game and shot 49.4% from the field and 54.7% from deep. He is projected for 15% ownership tonight, making him appealing.
It has been a struggle for the Dallas Mavericks recently, and Anthony Davis is in trade rumors every other day. Davis is also going to miss a number of months due to injury, and PJ Washington is doubtful to play tonight. With these two out, that will open more playing time and production for Naji Marshall, who has shooting guard and small forward eligibility. Marshall has seen his price tag rise recently, but he is getting every opportunity to post valuable fantasy scores. He is one of the best mid-range plays on the slate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
After sitting out the front end of a back-to-back yesterday, Michael Porter Jr. is more than likely going to be playing tonight. In his first season with the Nets, Porter Jr. is getting to showcase not only his scoring but also his ability to playmake and rebound the ball. He is averaging a career-high 25.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game, while still shooting a respectable 49% from the field.
Porter Jr. leads all small forwards in projected ceiling, with the Nets being only 3.5-point road underdogs against the Mavericks. The Nets have been one of the worst teams in the league, but that hasn’t stopped Porter Jr. from delivering ceiling fantasy performances. When targeting the Nets, everything starts with Porter Jr. The Mavericks’ defense is a shell of itself recently, and he should thrive if he is able to suit up.
Value
Back to the Celtics’ team for value with small forward Sam Hauser. The 6’7″ forward is questionable to play tonight and is probably the biggest news we need to keep an eye on throughout the day. If Hauser is able to play, he is an incredible value play at $3,800 with dual forward eligibility against the Pacers.
Hauser is coming off a 32-point DraftKings performance against the Raptors, where he scored 19 points and grabbed five rebounds. He shot 7-for-10 from the field, including five 3-pointers. Over his last 11 games, Hauser is averaging 3.2 3-pointers per game, with three games where he made at least five.
If Hauser is unable to play, that would make previously mentioned Hugo Gonzalez an even better option.
Fast Break
The most popular small forward on this four-game slate is Mavericks star rookie Cooper Flagg. He is coming off an absolute dud against the Bulls, recording just 16.8 DraftKings points. However, in his previous game against the Jazz, Flagg erupted for 60 DraftKings points and a near triple-double with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists. He is a little inconsistent but has a ceiling worth getting exposure to. Flagg will also draw an incredible matchup against the Nets, who rank 22nd in defensive rating.
Staying with the Mavericks, sharpshooter Klay Thompson has had to step up with all the Mavericks’ injuries recently. Against the Jazz, Thompson recorded a season-high 35.8 DraftKings points. He made six 3-pointers and posted a season-high five assists. Mainly known for his perimeter shooting, Thompson will get his chance to shine with the Nets allowing opponents to shoot 37.1% from behind the arc, which is the sixth-highest in the league. He is also a little too cheap on this slate at his $4,400 price tag.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The power forward position is loaded with upside players for this four-game slate. There are four players who could easily find their way into the optimal lineup at this position, but leading them all with a 53.4% optimal lineup rate is Cavaliers’ Evan Mobley, who is also projected for the highest ceiling at this position.
Mobley has been incredibly consistent this season on both ends of the floor. He is averaging a near double-double with 18 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 51.2% from the field. He is also averaging a career high in assists and blocks per game, proving his versatility on offense and defense.
Not only are the Jazz one of the worst defenses in the league, but they are also a less than average rebounding team. Mobley should have a field day in this matchup against the Jazz frontcourt.
Value
Nets’ forward Noah Clowney is another player thriving despite his team’s struggles. Clowney is averaging a career-high 13.2 points per game in his third year in the league. Over his last four games, Clowney has increased his scoring and rebounding and is averaging 29.7 DraftKings points per game.
Despite being a 6’10” power forward, most of Clowney’s scoring production has come from long distance. He has made at least three 3-pointers in three of his last four games, and nearly 70% of his field goal attempts during that time have come from deep. Clowney has shown a great ability to stretch the floor.
At $5,200 and given his recent success, Clowney is in a good spot against an injury-riddled Mavericks team. He is drawing around 20% projected ownership and is a strong mid-range value option.
Fast Break
Being tasked to guard Evan Mobley tonight is Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen. He has been a model of consistency lately and leads the Jazz in scoring with a career-high 27.9 points per game. Markkanen sat out Saturday due to rest, so he should be well-rested to take on this vaunted Cavaliers’ frontcourt. The matchup is not ideal, but Markkanen has had an amazing year and will be one of the main reasons if this game stays competitive. He is coming off a 33-point performance against the Mavericks in his last game.
Collin Murray-Boyles will also be able to take advantage of the lack of the Raptors’ healthy options. The rookie is coming off his best game of the season last night. He stuffed the stat sheet against the 76ers with 17 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, three steals, and three blocks for 52.8 DraftKings points. Murray-Boyles will get a rematch against the same 76ers team tonight, and his salary did not budge. There is a chance for a repeat performance, which would make him the best value play on the slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Similar to Michael Porter Jr., Joel Embiid sat out the first leg of the 76ers’ back-to-back last night. Likely going to suit up tonight, Embiid is always a threat for a double-double and will have a usage rate above 30%. That alone should make him an intriguing option, especially playing on this small four-game slate.
Embiid has already matched his games played for last season, so taking days off will become common for him throughout the year. His playing time has fluctuated, but he has shown the ability to log 40 minutes in a game, which is always enticing. He may not have the ceiling like he once did, but it is still a great play.
Without Jakob Poeltl, the Raptors lack size and strength in their frontcourt. In many ways the best way to attack the Raptors’ defense right now is through Embiid in the paint. Projected for only 10% ownership tonight, it is recommended to get at least slightly above that in this juicy interior matchup.
Value
Another center who will benefit from his opponent’s injury situation is Nets’ Nic Claxton. Priced at $5,700, Claxton has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus and projected ownership at the center position.
Anthony Davis is out, and PJ Washington is doubtful, which will make this an amazing matchup for Claxton. Even with those two playing, the Mavericks are allowing 56.2 points per game in the paint this season, which is the highest in the league. They also rank 23rd in rebounding percentage at 49%.
Claxton is a boom-or-bust fantasy producer, but this matchup is set up for a massive game tonight. In what should be a close battle, Claxton has a great chance to record his 10th double-double.
Fast Break
Coming in at the bare minimum of $3,000 is Mavericks’ center Dwight Powell. Not only is Anthony Davis out, but so is backup center Dereck Lively. Our NBA Model has Powell projected to play 19 minutes. Even with a sub-10% projected usage rate, Powell has shown the ability to provide value. The Nets frontcourt is not anything special, and Powell has recorded at least 15 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. It only truly makes sense to deploy Powell when making a stars and scrubs lineup build tonight.
After missing the last two games due to injury, Jusuf Nurkic is expected back tonight to face the Cavaliers’ twin-tower frontcourt. Before the injury, Nurkic was absolutely dominant, averaging 20.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 48.4 DraftKings points per game in his last three contests. He will have to play big minutes against this frontcourt and has a chance to put up another big game. The Jazz may get blown out, but Nurkic should still be able to record his third straight double-double in this spot.
Pictured: Donovan Mitchell
Photo Credit: Imagn
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