NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, December 31)

Happy New Year’s Eve! Wednesday features a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The NBA saw one of its biggest stars go down with an injury recently. Nikola Jokic suffered a hyperextended left knee, and while he managed to avoid a serious injury, he’s going to be sidelined for at least the next four weeks. The Nuggets were already playing without Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, and Christian Braun, leaving them without four of their starting five from the beginning of the season.

That leaves Jamal Murray as the last man standing. He’s going to have to carry a herculean workload to try to keep this team afloat with Jokic out of the lineup. Murray hasn’t seen a huge spike in usage with Jokic off the floor so far this season, but that figures to change moving forward.

Murray was already having one of his best statistical seasons. He’s been particularly good for fantasy purposes of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.16 over his past 10 games. He’s had at least 46.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five contests, and he’s averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He could certainly improve on that mark with Jokic sidelined, making him a strong pay-up option at $9,300.

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Value

Tre Jones stands out as one of the best pure values on the slate. Jones has been fantastic when on the floor this season, averaging 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, and he should get the opportunity to play more than usual on Wednesday. The Bulls are going to be without both Josh Giddey and Coby White, opening up a bunch of playing time in the backcourt.

Jones is currently projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he has historically smashed with a comparable salary and minute projection. He’s averaged 32.89 DraftKings points in that split, good for an average Plus/Minus of +10.78 (per the Trends tool).

Jones has the top projected Plus/Minus on the slate, and he’s popping in the optimal lineup simulations in Sim Labs nearly 70% of the time. Add in the fact that he has eligibility in both backcourt spots, and it’s hard to imagine leaving him out of your lineups.

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Fast Break

Immanuel Quickley is coming off a poor performance in his last outing, but that stands out as a clear outlier. He had posted a positive Plus/Minus in his four previous contests, including two games with at least 44.5 DraftKings points. He stands out as a solid bounce-back target against the Nuggets.

Jordan Poole is back for the Pelicans, and he’s turned in two big showings in his past three games. He racked up 36.75 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks and 42.25 vs. the Suns, and he’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The game between the Pelicans and Bulls stands out as the clear top target of the day for fantasy purposes, leading the slate with a massive 248.0-point total, and Poole is underpriced at $5,000. His salary comes with an 86% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Raptors have defied most people’s preseason expectations to start the year. They’re currently sitting at 20-14, good for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. They have a very expensive roster, and they’re proving that the pieces fit together better than originally anticipated.

Brandon Ingram is one of their newest additions, and he is still a certified bucket. He’s not scoring quite as much with the Raptors as he did in some of his previous locations, but he still leads the team in points per game and usage. He’s been particularly good of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past 10 games while averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Despite that production, Ingram’s price tag has actually decreased on DraftKings. He’s down to just $7,600 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Nuggets, resulting in a 92% Bargain Rating. He has the top ceiling projection at the position, and he’s sixth in projected Plus/Minus.

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Value

Bruce Brown is another member of the Nuggets who should be thrust into a bigger role with Jokic sidelined. Brown hasn’t been a great per-minute producer this season, averaging just 0.74 DraftKings points per minute, but he’s increased that figure to 0.88 with Jokic, Gordon, Johnson, and Braun off the floor.

Brown is also projected for 28.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a lot for someone priced at just $4,300. Players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.35, and Brown has personally averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.92 in that split.

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Fast Break

Ryan Rollins has some tournament appeal for the Bucks. They’re implied for 122.0 points against the Wizards, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency for the year. Rollins has averaged an excellent 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s had at least 42.75 DraftKings points in two of his past four games. He’s also underpriced at $6,400, resulting in an 86% Bargain Rating.

On the other side of that matchup, Tre Johnson is starting to flash for the Wizards. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, and he’s coming off 31.25 DraftKings points vs. the Suns in his last outing. He hasn’t displayed a huge ceiling during that time frame, but his playing time has trended up in recent games. He’s currently projected for 25.5 minutes at just $4,200, and he’s averaged better than a fantasy point per minute since returning from injury.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Small forward doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong position to spend up at on Wednesday. Deni Avdija is the only player priced above $7,800, and he has to navigate a brutal matchup vs. the Thunder. He ultimately grades out as a poor value at $9,700, though he still has the top ceiling projection at the position.

That makes pivoting to Jalen Williams an appealing alternative. Williams’ ceiling projection is within a point of Avdija’s, despite checking in at nearly $2,000 cheaper. The Thunder haven’t needed Williams to do much this season, but he’s still averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off 32.9 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 43.0 DraftKings points vs. the Hawks.

Portland has struggled on the defensive end over the past month, and the Thunder’s 124.25 implied team total ranks second on the slate. There’s always some blowout potential every time the Thunder take the floor, but Williams grades out as the best pay-up option at small forward.

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Value

Kevin Huerter is another member of the Bulls who should be thrust into a larger role on Wednesday. He’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes at just $4,300, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.50. Huerter has also averaged a respectable 0.84 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s seen a +3.46% usage bump with Giddey and White off the floor. That’s the third-largest increase on the team, and he’s increased his production to 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in that split.

Huerter is also popping as massively undervalued per Sim Labs. His optimal lineup rate checks in at 40%, yet he’s projected for less than 30% ownership. 

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Fast Break

Ayo Dosunmu also has plenty of appeal for the Bulls. He’s a bit more expensive than Jones and Huerter, but he’s also projected for a bit more playing time. Dosunmu is currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s also seen a nice boost in production with White and Giddey off the floor. He’s seen a +3.0% usage bump in that scenario, resulting in an average of 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. Using multiple value pieces for Chicago makes plenty of sense for cash games, especially with the team having the highest implied team total of the day.

Keldon Johnson has been a boom-or-bust option for the Spurs this season. However, when he goes off, he has the potential to provide tremendous value at his $4,400 price tag. He had 45.0 DraftKings points in just 24.6 minutes two games ago, and he’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Zion Williamson is down to just $7,100 on DraftKings, which feels like a crazy price tag for the uber-talented Pelicans’ star. Williamson has struggled to stay on the floor throughout his NBA career, but he’s always produced when he’s been available. He’s averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he managed 48.25 DraftKings points in less than 29 minutes vs. the Knicks in his last outing.

Williamson’s playing time has been capped at around 30 minutes in recent games, but that should still give him more than enough chances to return value in an elite spot vs. the Bulls. He has the second-highest optimal lineup rate on the entire slate, trailing only Jones.

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Value

Matas Buzelis may not see the same bump in playing time as some of the Bulls’ backcourt options, but he should see a nice increase in usage. He’s seen a +4.4% usage bump with Giddey and White off the floor this season, which is the second-highest mark on the team. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in that split, and he’s currently projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models. He should be able to pay off his $4,600 price tag with that much playing time, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

Jalen Smith is yet another potential option for the Bulls. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he should see a similar role on Wednesday. He’s projected for 23 minutes vs. the Pelicans, and he’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His optimal lineup rate is north of 42% in Sim Labs, and he can be used at power forward or center.

Saddiq Bey has had an excellent year for the Pelicans. He missed all of last season while recovering from an injury, but he’s averaged 15.1 points and 5.9 rebounds in 29.8 minutes per game this year. He’s played at least 32.5 minutes in back-to-back contests, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. Bey is projected for a similar workload on Wednesday, and he has plenty of upside in that role. He had 47.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he has three games with at least 44.75 DraftKings points over the past month.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Vucevic concludes our tour of the Bulls on Wednesday. Unlike a lot of his teammates, Vucevic hasn’t seen the same boost in production with White and Giddey off the floor this season. In fact, his fantasy output has actually decreased in that split.

Still, he’s one of the Bulls’ most established offensive players, so there’s no reason to expect that to continue. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he definitely has the potential to improve upon that vs. the Pelicans. Vucevic owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.22, and he owns the top optimal line rate at the position.

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Value

With Jokic out of the picture, Jonas Valanciunas should move into the starting lineup for the Pelicans. That is an extremely appealing proposition for fantasy purposes. Valanciunas has always been an elite per-minute producer, and this year has been no exception. He’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some serious damage with an expanded role.

Valanciunas is currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s too cheap at $5,500 if he sees that much playing time. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.75 with a comparable salary and minute projection. While he’s yet to fit that split as a member of the Nuggets, he averaged a massive +11.75 in four games with a comparable salary and minute projection last year with the Wizards. The matchup vs. the Raptors isn’t ideal, but Valanciunas has plenty of upside moving for as long as Jokic is sidelined. Don’t be surprised if he’s priced closer to $7k in the near future.

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Fast Break

Victor Wembanyama is still playing limited minutes for the Spurs, but he is an absolute freak of nature. He’s averaged 1.83 DraftKings points per minute since returning from injury, so he doesn’t need a full workload to fill up the stat sheet. His price tag has also come down to $9,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a 99% Bargain Rating vs. the Knicks.

Karl-Anthony Towns is another potential tournament option on a slate without a ton of strong pay-up options. Towns has the third-highest optimal lineup rate at the position, and he provides one of the best ceilings on the slate. He’s had at least 58.25 DraftKings points in two of his past four games, and his optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership in Sim Labs.

Pictured: Tre Jones
Photo Credit: Imagn