The NBA stuffed the stocking again this Christmas Day with five great matchups. The Cavs and Knicks tip off the slate at Madison Square Garden at 12:00 p.m. ET, followed by a Spurs-Thunder rematch in the afternoon. The Western Conference brings the last three matchups as well, with Mavericks-Warriors, Rockets-Lakers, and Timberwolves-Nuggets set to unwrap throughout the evening. The 10-team slate is stacked with strong options to build around, even though key injuries could keep some big names on the bench. Be sure to check back for updates to our models as injury reports come out leading up to tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Thunder take on the Spurs again after losing to San Antonio twice over the last two weeks. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all point guards in what should be a great matchup. SGA and the Thunder will host San Antonio at the Paycom Center for the first time this season after facing them in Vegas for the NBA Cup and San Antonio on Tuesday.
SGA had 33 points, eight assists, and 48.25 DraftKings points on Tuesday, which is a down game for the superstar, who had posted over 58 DraftKings points in each of his previous three games.
He has been slightly better at home (54 DraftKings points per game) than on the road this season and smashed for 66 DraftKings points in his last home game against Memphis. He and the Thunder should be fired up to bounce back and prove they can handle the Spurs, and the reigning MVP is a good pay-up place to start your roster builds for Christmas.
Value
The Mavericks have found an awesome present under the tree in Ryan Nembhard, as the undrafted free agent has stepped up as the team’s starting point guard and as a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at point guard for Christmas Day’s slate.
Nembhard is averaging 8.3 points, 5.6 assists, and 19.5 DraftKings points per game on the season, but he has over 20 DraftKings points in seven of his 10 games in December. He has shown a very high ceiling with 28 points, 10 assists, and 50.2 DraftKings points against the Nuggets at the start of the month, and he finished with 25.2 DraftKings points on 11 points, seven assists, and three rebounds in 33 minutes on Tuesday in the Mavs’ big home win over the Nuggets.
At under $4,500, Nembhard doesn’t have to go off for a huge game to be a good value play against the Warriors. He seems to be coming out of his shaky shooting stretch, so he has good upside against the Warriors in the middle game of the five-game schedule.
Fast Break
One key situation to watch for leading up to Thursday is the availability of Jalen Brunson (ankle), who missed Tuesday’s matchup for “injury management.” If he’s back, he’ll be a strong play against the Cavs since the Knicks have the highest team total on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard. If Brunson is out, Tyler Kolek will be an outstanding value play after almost posting a triple-double on Tuesday and finishing with 53.25 DraftKings points against the Timberwolves. Even if Brunson does play, Kolek is one of the best values on the board for his salary under $4,000.
Jamal Murray had a monster game with 31 points, 14 assists, and 64.25 DraftKings on Tuesday against the Mavericks and has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games. He and the Nuggets host the Wolves in the last game of the day, and he had 56.6 and 51 DraftKings points in his last two matchups with Minnesota this season.
In addition to Henbhard, the Mavericks’ other point guards, Jaden Hardy and Brandon Williams, also have very good Projected Plus/Minus in their matchup against the Warriors. Both are bargains as they come off the bench, depending on the availability of Max Christie (illness) and Klay Thompson (knee). Williams has a little more scoring potential, since he has scored at least nine points in six of his last seven games.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Donovan Mitchell leads the Cavs to the Big Apple, bringing the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at shooting guard this Thursday. Mitchell always seems to shine on the big stage and had 46.5 DraftKings points in the Cavs’ earlier matchup this season in New York.
Mitchell scored 27 points in 30 minutes during his team’s Tuesday win over the Pelicans, and he has at least that many points in eight of his last nine games. He’s averaging 30.6 points and 47.9 DraftKings points per game this season.
With Evan Mobley (calf) out, Mitchell has had to carry even more of the offense for the Cavs, and he has risen to the challenge most of the time. The Cavs won both their games at home to start the week, and Spida will look to carry them to a big win on Thursday to extend their winning streak to three.
Value
In some situations, it helps to have a different perspective on the slate, and one awesome way to get that is by using the ShotQuality projections, which can be built right into your models. In that set of projections, Naji Marshall has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard.
Marshall has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three contests with at least 27 DraftKings points per game.
While other members of the Mavs have been in and out of the lineup, Marshall has been a consistent contributor. He has scored at least 15 points in nine straight games and 11 of his last 12. In those 12 games, he is averaging 16.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.1 steals in 31.8 minutes per game.
As a mid-range play, Marshall offers good upside and consistent production while bringing plenty of roster flexibility as well since he can fit at shooting guard or small forward.
Fast Break
Anthony Edwards has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in both sets of projections, just behind Mitchell. Edwards had 38 points and 55 DraftKings points to lead his Wolves past the Knicks on Tuesday. He had 53.5 DraftKings points in his only matchup this season against the Nuggets, and he brings a sky-high ceiling as an excellent pay-up play on the road in the late game.
Another key injury situation to watch for leading up to Thursday’s slate is the Lakers’ backcourt, where Luka Doncic (leg) missed Tuesday’s game with a leg contusion, while at the same time, Austin Reaves (calf) returned from his injury and played 22 minutes in the team’s loss to the Suns. If either of the two guards is ready for a full workload, they can be part of your roster plan, even in a tough matchup against the Rockets.
The Cavs got a big game from Sam Merrill on Tuesday, and the versatile wing has a strong Plus/Minus projection for Thursday as well. Merrill finished Tuesday’s matchup with 22 points, seven assists, and 44.5 DraftKings points. He just returned from his 14-game absence as a result of a hand injury, and if he’s in the lineup again on Christmas, he has the potential to be an outstanding value at just $4,000.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Small forward is a position that should come up large on Christmas Day with plenty of star power stacked across the slate. Of the top options, rookie Cooper Flagg has the best Plus/Minus projection for Christmas. Flagg has the highest floor projection of all small forwards in the ShotQuality projections, along with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in each set of projections.
Flagg is coming off an impressive game on Tuesday, when he racked up 62.8 DraftKings points on 33 points, nine boards, nine assists, a steal, and a block in 40 minutes. He was a little inconsistent early in the year, but the rookie has settled in and produced at least 34 DraftKings points in seven straight and 11 of his last 12, highlighted by a pair of performances with over 60 DraftKings points.
While the matchup with the Warriors could be a tough one for Flagg, he still brings a high enough ceiling to be a strong option, especially since he costs a little less than the other elite options on this slate discussed in the fast break below.
Value
The highest Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections at small forward comes from Mikal Bridges of the Knicks, who checks in with a salary under $7,000 but brings a high ceiling, especially if Brunson is out or limited against the Cavs.
Bridges had a disappointing game on Tuesday, producing only 15 points and 18.75 DraftKings points, but he had been rolling before that, with at least 33 DraftKings points to exceed salary-based expectations in five of his previous six games.
In their first matchup of the season, Bridges had 41.75 DraftKings points in 33 minutes. He could get even more usage this time around, depending on who else is available. Bridges has the highest Perfect% of all small forwards by a wide margin, meaning he has the highest chance of landing in the optimal lineup, according to FantasyLabs simulations.
Fast Break
In both sets of projections, Jimmy Butler has the highest median and ceiling projections at small forward. He hasn’t been putting up any monster numbers lately, coming in under salary-based expectations in seven straight games, but he has posted over 31 DraftKings points in six straight games. He’s been solid but not spectacular, but he usually steps up with big games in spotlight matchups like this one.
Jalen Williams is another high-ceiling play as the Thunder take on the Spurs. He had 39.5 DraftKings points in the Thunder’s loss to the Spurs on Tuesday and has over 33 DraftKings points in each of his last five games. Like Butler, he’s often come in under salary-based expectations even though he’s had solid totals. Since both Butler and Williams have had solid but not spectacular numbers, Flagg can sneak in and capture the top spot in the stud rankings above.
Even with so many expensive plays that make sense at small forward, there are some solid value plays as well. Merrill is a strong value play at small forward, and another option to check out is Julian Champagnie of the Spurs, who has at least 18 DraftKings in nine of his last 11 games and can contribute in multiple categories as a valuable utility player for San Antonio.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The top two options at power forward on the Christmas slate are former teammates Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Davis takes the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward in both sets of projections, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Davis started the week with big games against the Pelicans and Nuggets. He had 63.2 DraftKings points on Monday night by putting up 35 points, 17 rebounds, and two assists in 35 minutes against his old team in New Orleans. The Mavericks lost that game, but they bounced back and beat the Nuggets on Tuesday. Davis had 31 points, nine rebounds, four assists, and 54.2 DraftKings points in that game.
Whenever he’s healthy and at full strength, Davis is a great multi-category producer to build around, and the projections indicate he’ll be an excellent value even at his elevated salary.
Value
Even with so many solid, high-priced plays at forward, there are some strong value plays as well. One value play with lots of upside is Keldon Johnson of the Spurs, although his role fluctuates from game to game depending on how the rotation shakes out.
Johnson had 25 points and 29.75 DraftKings points in Tuesday’s win over the Thunder. He also had a strong game with 12 points and nine boards on Sunday against the Wizards, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those two games.
Throughout the season, Johnson has been boom-or-bust depending on his role, but it’s hard to match his upside at forward with a salary of only $4,200 on Christmas.
Fast Break
LeBron James has the second-highest ceiling projection in what could be his last Christmas Day matchup. If Luka and Reaves are limited or out, LeBron would have to carry more workload, and even if they play, he always has the potential to turn things up for a special performance on a special day. James has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six games.
In the middle salary range, Jabari Smith Jr. is worth a look. He exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six games and has scored at least 16 points in seven of his last eight contests. Smith has the second-highest ceiling projection of the power forwards under $6,000.
The top power forward under $4,000 in the projections is Lakers PF Jarred Vanderbilt, who exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games before coming in with just five points, five rebounds, and 12.25 DraftKings points against the Suns on Tuesday. Vanderbilt is getting enough minutes off the bench to chip in solid multi-category contributions as a punt play if you pay up everywhere else.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at center and on the whole slate this Christmas. He’ll be a late-night hammer if you pay up for him, and he has been good enough to deliver excellent value even though his salary has climbed to over $12,000.
Jokic was a good value on Tuesday, producing 68.75 DraftKings points on 29 points, 14 assists, seven rebounds, and four steals in 37 minutes. He is producing an impressive 66.8 DraftKings points per game this season at the rate of 1.91 DraftKings points per minute.
On Christmas night, the Joker will host the Timberwolves. He faced them three times this season, going for 72.75 and 67.5 DraftKings points in their last two meetings. If you can find the value plays to make his salary work, Jokic is a strong option to build around.
Value
The Cavaliers will be without Evan Mobley, making Jarrett Allen a good value at center. Allen has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and has scored 12 points in four straight games after easing back in his own return from injury.
Allen had a double-double and 43.5 DraftKings points against the Bulls last Friday and fell just one rebound short of another double-double on Tuesday. He typically puts up good defensive numbers, especially without Mobley in the mix. He has a high ceiling if he’s ready for around 30 minutes against the Knicks.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns had 40 points and 13 rebounds for the Knicks on Tuesday for 60.25 DraftKings points against Minnesota. His big game came without Brunson, though, so his usage could lower a little if Brunson is back. KAT has three double-doubles in his last four games and has been playing at a high level this season, especially during the Knicks’ NBA Cup run.
The Warriors have been leaning heavily on Quinten Post, allowing him to exceed salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games. If the team turns away from Draymond Green a little more, Post could get even more work against the Mavs.
If you opt to punt center, Jonas Valanciunas makes sense off the bench behind Jokic. He doesn’t typically get a lot of minutes but makes the most of his limited time. He has scored at least eight points in 11 straight games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six.
Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: Imagn
