With bye weeks done for the year, we have an 11-game main slate in Week 16 starting at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,200) Buffalo Bills (-10.5) at Cleveland Browns (41.5 Total)
There’s not a clear top option to spend up for at quarterback this week, as many of the strong fantasy players are on teams with very little to play for. The Bills are still fighting for playoff position, though, so at the very least the motivation will be there for Josh Allen.
The drawback for Allen is that the Browns have both a strong defense and a terrible offense, which likely limits both his efficiency and volume. That combination has led to Cleveland allowing the fourth-fewest points to QBs on the season. Buffalo will be more than happy to lean on the ground game once they get out to a lead, so the best-case scenario is that lead coming from a couple of Allen touchdowns.
As usual, he’s a very solid bet to top 20 or so points, but a long shot to go much beyond that. On a somewhat weak slate for QBs, there’s a scenario where that gets him in the optimal lineup, but it’s a somewhat thin bet, especially on a player whose name value means he will always carry some ownership. I’ll be staying away myself, but he leads the position in median and ceiling projections.
Value: Jacoby Brissett ($5,300) Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (48.5 Total)
It’s absurd that the salary for Brissett has fallen in each of the last three weeks, all of which have seen him top 20 DraftKings points. In fact, he hasn’t fallen short of that mark in any of the nine games he’s started this season, a better track record than Josh Allen (20+ points in ten of 14) at a much lower price tag.
Of course, Brissett also isn’t going to pop up for the occasional 40+ point games the way the slate’s top QBs are. That explains part of his pricing, as his upside is fairly limited. Still, we don’t need 40, or even 30, from Brissett to get him into the optimal lineup.
This week, he gets an above-average matchup against Atlanta and a likely pass-heavy game script thanks to the Cardinals being underdogs. He’s also an easy QB to stack, since the vast majority of his production has gone to the same tow players — though the health of Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,600) could complicate that slightly.
Still, he’s an excellent cash game option with or without any of his teammates and a solid GPP play with a concentrated pool of stacking partners and bring-backs.
Quick Hits
Joe Burrow ($6,500): In theory this is a solid spot for Burrow. He could have both of his top weapons back and is playing a soft Dolphins defense in Miami with warm weather. However, it’s no guarantee that the Bengals are trying that hard at this point in the season after being eliminated from the playoffs already, and it wouldn’t shock me if they switched to a run-heavy plan to protect their franchise QB down the stretch, making Burrow a shaky option at best.
Jared Goff ($6,300): Goff and the Lions, on the other hand, have everything to play for. They’re on the outside of the playoffs looking in but have a solid chance of making it should they win out, starting this week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has a solid but not great defense, and the Lions are at home, where Goff performs his best. Their 29.5-point team total is by far the best on the slate, making Goff a solid option at his price point.
Justin Herbert ($6,000): The Chargers have mostly been a run-game-and-defense-first team this season, as their terrible offensive line has made life hard on Herbert. A matchup with Dallas just might fix that, though, as they’ve allowed 30 points per game this season and the most points to QBs. With the Chargers still jockeying for playoff position, they’ll be motivated, making this a perfect opportunity to resurrect the passing attack.
Quinn Ewers ($4,000): The Dolphins announced this week that Ewers would be replacing Tua Tagovailoa as their QB, for at least this game but likely the remainder of the season. I don’t know much about the 7th-round draft pick, but he gets to face the league’s worst defense (Cincinnati) at home, and he has a stone-minimum salary. That’s enough to have some exposure to him, and he’s a potential cash game pivot from Brissett if you need the extra $1,300 in salary.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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