We have an 11-game slate in Week 11, with lock at the usual 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,000) Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (47.5 Total)
DraftKings has done a good job at pricing Josh Allen where it’s a real decision whether or not to roster him, even in games that don’t necessarily project to be a blowout. The issue with Allen has previously been that he’s priced for his mean outcome — which is pushed up by the occasional explosion — rather than his median, which is usually much lower.
However, at “just” $7,000 in what could be a competitive matchup with the Bucs, he’s firmly in both the GPP and cash game discussion this week. Especially since Buffalo suffered a massive upset last week at the hands of the Dolphins, which should motivate them to go all out in this one. They’re favored by 5.5 against the Bucs in a game with sneaky shootout potential, which is the ideal spot for Allen.
Both teams play at a top-10 overall pace,, which should provide a few extra total drives, plus Tampa Bay has faced one of the highest opponent Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) figures in the league. That all gives Allen a stronger-than-usual shot at a ceiling game. Plus, Allen has topped 20 DraftKings points in seven of nine contests this season, so at worst he’ll keep you competitive, which is what makes him a strong all-around option.
Value: Jacoby Brissett ($4,900) Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (48.5 Total)
The only reason I’m not more interested in Allen this week is because of the screaming value on Jacoby Brissett. He’s now played four games as the Cardinals’ starting QB, finishing over 20 DraftKings points in each of them. And yet, he’s still priced below $5,000.
Last week looked like a tough spot for Brissett as his Cardinals took on a top-three defense in the Seahawks. Brissett still hit 20 points in that matchup and now gets a drastically better situation against the 49ers. San Francisco ranks 26th in overall DVOA and 24th in points allowed to quarterbacks. With the Cardinals implied for just over three touchdowns, Brissett will pay off his salary as long as he’s involved in at least two of them.
The one negative this week is that wide receiver Marvin Harrison is out following appendix surgery. However, the true top option on the team is the tight end, and Harrison was averaging only 55 receiving yards per game in Brissett’s starts. They should be able to replicate that production elsewhere, or at least come near enough to pay off Brissett’s meager salary.
He leads all players in Pts/Sal by a wide margin and is a cash game must, with some sneaky GPP stacking upside in a highly concentrated Cardinals offense.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson ($6,900): Jackson has been priced just below Allen, with his projections also just shy, in what feels like every week this season. That’s the case again in Week 11, though the matchup makes him a tougher sell. He’s taking on a solid Browns defense, and the terrible Browns offense probably doesn’t do enough to force any aggression from Jackson. He could always break a long run or two and find a massive score, but I’d give Allen much stronger odds this week at just $100 more.
Justin Herbert ($6,300): What happens when the league’s worst offensive line faces the league’s worst pass rush? That’s the case this week, as the Chargers take on a Jaguars team that has recorded a league-low 12 sacks this season. Herbert has been a tough option in recent weeks since his front hasn’t given him enough time to push the ball downfield, but he has a dream matchup this week. At roughly 5% projected ownership, he’s an excellent GPP flier.
Aaron Rodgers ($5,400): What happens when a washed quarterback meets the league’s worst defense? That’s the question in Pittsburgh, as Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers host the Bengals. Rodgers has just one game over 20 DraftKings points since Week 1, and it came in the previous meeting against Cincinnati. If he could get there again at just $5,400, he could be a tournament winner.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
