The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes at Buffalo Bills – $7,100 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
The top two quarterbacks on Sunday’s 11-game slate go head-to-head as Mahomes and the Chiefs visit Josh Allen and the Bills. Mahomes edges out Allen in median and floor projections using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections. Allen has a slightly higher ceiling but also has a higher salary.
Both superstars are strong plays despite a tough matchup for each of them in what should be one of the best games of the season. The matchup has the highest point total on the board for Sunday afternoon, and Mahomes’ Chiefs are slight 1.5-point favorites, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Allen has a higher ceiling because of more rushing potential, but Mahomes has been outstanding this season and is a slightly stronger play since he saves some salary and is slightly lower risk.
Mahomes has at least 25 DraftKings points in five straight games, including a pair of games with over 30 DraftKings points against the Jaguars and the Lions. He has thrown three touchdowns in each of the last three games and has been picking up rushing yards as well this season, averaging 35 yards per game on the ground to go with his 262.4 passing yards per game. He has 17 passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns in eight games, giving him a slight edge over Allen, who has 12 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns in seven games.
The matchup against the Bills isn’t a great one, since they allow the second-fewest passing yards per game this season, but they do also allow the most rushing yards to opposing QBs, so there is reason for optimism as well.
Mahomes always seems to step up on the big stage, and Mahomes vs. Allen should be great theater to close out Sunday afternoon.
Top Value: Jaxson Dart vs. San Francisco 49ers – $5,200 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Dart has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks on DraftKings in the three-way aggregate, and he has the third-highest on FanDuel, where he’s much less of a bargain. Bargain Rating is an extremely important column to check out in the models since it compares the salary of players across multiple DFS sites. On DraftKings, Dart has a 97% Bargain Rating, indicating his salary is much lower compared to the cap. Even on FanDuel, where he’s more expensive, he still has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection.
The rookie has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in each of his five games since taking over the starting job. He has produced over 18 DraftKings points in each contest, with a high point of 29.4 DraftKings points two weeks ago in a road loss to the Broncos. Last week, he was in a tough spot in Philly against the Eagles but still finished with 19.4 DraftKings points. He threw for 193 yards and a touchdown and added another touchdown on the ground, his third straight game with a rushing score.
The Giants’ offense will definitely take a hit after the season-ending injury to Cam Skattebo (ankle), but that could also leave more work for Dart, especially on the ground. Dart has been strong in his two home starts, leading the team to upset wins over the Chargers and Eagles. He’ll look to keep that trend going against the 49ers this week.
To this point in the season, the 49ers rank in the middle of the league against QBs. Last week, though, they struggled on the road against C.J. Stroud, and their pass rush has been reduced by injuries. They have allowed 13 passing touchdowns in their last seven games, so they’re not an option you have to avoid since Dart brings so much value.
Dart is clearly the top bargain QB this week on DraftKings, but his ownership projection is high as a result. Trevor Lawrence is only a little more expensive in his smash spot against the Raiders and can be a GPP alternative. He also has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all QBs on FanDuel, since Dart has a higher salary on that site.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey at New York Giants – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
On the other side of that matchup at MetLife Stadium, Christian McCaffrey has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection in the aggregate projections on DraftKings. He also has the highest Plus/Minus projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel at the position by a significant margin. While Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson are also always good options with high ceilings, CMC’s matchup helps him claim the top spot in the models.
McCaffrey was held in check by the Texans last week, totaling just 9.8 DraftKings points. He had over 22 DraftKings points in each of his first seven games of the season before that letdown, though, and he should be set up for a bounce-back week. McCaffrey had a season-high 42.1 DraftKings points in Week 7 against the Falcons and has been a consistent contributor due to his six touchdowns on the year and his heavy workload as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Before last week, McCaffrey had at least six catches in every game this season and had over 70 receiving yards in five of his seven games. Last week, he was held to just three catches for 27 yards and only 25 rushing yards.
McCaffrey is in a favorable matchup to turn things around this week since the Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs this year. Last week, the Giants gave up Saquon Barkley’s first 100-yard game of the season, and they should be a good bounce-back spot for CMC.
Taylor and Robinson have high ceilings in tough matchups, and McCaffrey is much cheaper than Taylor, whose salary has spiked after so many touchdowns the last few weeks.
Top Value: Tyrone Tracy Jr. vs. San Francisco 49ers – $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Taking over Skattebo, Tracy has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at running back this week, behind just McCaffrey. He is a little cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel, but he is a good value on both sites since he should have an expanded role and has shown a high ceiling when serving as the full-time running back.
Last season as a rookie, Tracy took over the starting job from Devin Singletary and racked up six total touchdowns and 1,123 rushing and receiving yards. He was the starter coming into this season, but a shoulder injury to Tracy against the Chiefs opened the door for Skattebo to step up.
Before the injury, he only had 68 rushing yards on 22 carries while adding eight catches for 54 yards as well. He returned to a reduced workload but did still flash upside with a long touchdown run against Denver in Week 7.
He showed good upside as a receiver last year, and at least some of his early-season struggles could have been due to Russell Wilson’s overall struggles in the offense. Last week against the Eagles, he had 10 carries for 39 yards and two catches for 14 yards while taking over most of the work in the backfield after Skattebo’s departure. He probably won’t get all the work since the Giants do prefer a rotation, but he should be the lead back in the rotation, with a specific emphasis on passing downs.
The 49ers are a pretty neutral matchup for running backs this season, but they have allowed five running back touchdowns in the last four weeks, and last week, the Texans’ running backs totaled 127 rushing yards and 70 receiving yards.
Tracy hasn’t been priced up yet for his expanded role, so he’s a strong value play this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase vs. Chicago Bears – $8,400 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel
Chase has caught fire over the last few weeks, and he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all receivers on the main slate, along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Chase has gotten incredibly high volume in the last few weeks, and he’s been posting huge numbers as a result.
He rides his impressive hot streak into a favorable matchup against the Bears, but there is one key situation to monitor. New Bengals veteran starting QB Joe Flacco (shoulder) is dealing with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder, but if he’s able to play through the injury, he and the Bengals will be in a good spot against the Bears.
Chase has at least 10 catches in three straight weeks since Flacco became the starter, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those three contests. He had 10 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown against the Packers, 16 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers, and 12 catches for 91 yards last week against the Jets. In those three contests, he drew a massive 54 targets, averaging 12.7 catches on 18 targets per game.
With so much volume, Chase is getting plenty of chances to make big plays, and he’s taking advantage of them to post massive numbers.
He should be poised to keep rolling since Chicago has allowed 10 wide receiver touchdowns in seven games, along with an average of 137.8 yards to the position per week.
If Flacco is able to play, Chase has an immensely high ceiling, but even if Jake Browning is back, he brings enough upside to be a strong pay-up value play this week.
Top Value: Wan’Dale Robinson vs. San Francisco 49ers – $5,100 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
If you’re going with Dart as a value play, one strong option to consider is stacking him with his teammate Wan’Dale Robinson, who has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers, behind only Chase. He continues the theme of underpriced Giants and could get more work with Skattebo not soaking up as many targets as well.
Robinson has at least three catches in all five games that Dart has started, and he had at least five catches in each of the first three games after Malik Nabers (knee) was lost for the season due to injury. He cooled off last week with just three catches for 48 yards in that tough matchup against the Eagles, but he still led the team in receiving yards.
This week, he should be able to get back on track against the 49ers, who have specifically struggled to contain slot receivers over the last few weeks, allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers over their last five games.
If you’re looking for other cheap receivers that pop in our projections, consider Olamide Zaccheaus of the Bears, who stands out as a bargain play on DraftKings, along with Travis Hunter and Keon Coleman. Coleman is a strong option on FanDuel as well, along with Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker of the Raiders, as they host Jacksonville.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Tucker Kraft vs. Carolina Panthers – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
The Packers typically do a good job spreading the ball around to different pass-catchers, which can result in some uneven production at times. However, Kraft has stepped up as a go-to producer over the last few weeks, and he has helped the Packers get on a very nice offensive roll.
The Packers have at least 27 points in six of their seven games, including each of their three weeks since their Week 5 bye week. Kraft has posted at least 9.9 DraftKings points in six of his seven games this season and over 12 DraftKings points in the three games since the bye week.
Last week, he had his best game of the season on Sunday Night Football against the Steelers, racking up 143 receiving yards on seven catches with a pair of touchdowns. He’s up to six scores on the season, and he is in a great spot this week against the Panthers, who have allowed four tight end touchdowns this season and an average of 66 receiving yards per game to the position.
Last week, the Panthers gave up 40 points to the Bills, and they also gave up 42 points to the Patriots in Week 4. Kraft gets plenty of attention from QB Jordan Love, and since the offense is rolling, they should be able to take it to the Panthers at Lambeau Field this week.
Top Value: Sam LaPorta vs. Minnesota Vikings – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
While Kraft has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, Theo Johnson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end on DraftKings, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating. I also highlighted Juwan Johnson as a good value tight end in my early look on Wednesday. Another good option to consider as you search for value at the position is Lions’ tight end Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings in the aggregate projections.
Like Kraft, LaPorta is a consistent part of a potent offense. His role gives him a high ceiling if he gets the touchdowns and a relatively high floor as well. He has at least three catches in every game this season and found the end zone in back-to-back games for over 16 DraftKings points against the Bengals and Chiefs. After those two games, he had a slow week against the Bucs with just 15 yards on his three catches, but he should be ready to bounce back after the Lions’ bye week as they face the Vikings in an important divisional matchup.
LaPorta isn’t as cheap as Johnson or Johnson, but if you’re looking for a mid-range play with an elite ceiling, LaPorta can be a strong option to build around, even though his matchup against Minnesota is less than ideal. The Vikings did give up five catches for 77 yards and a touchdown to Oronde Gadsden II in Week 8, though, and LaPorta will look to post a similar outing in Week 9.
Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
Photo Credit: Imagn
