Week 9 in the NFL is the halfway point in the regular season, and DraftKings is ready to roll with another full slate of DFS fantasy football contests, which include the 11 games on Sunday afternoon. With 22 teams in the player pool, there are plenty of interesting options to consider. The main slate begins as usual at 1:00 p.m. ET, when eight games begin the action, with just three games in the later wave, highlighted by a huge AFC matchup between the Chiefs and the Bills.
The Packers have the highest implied team total on the board as they host the Panthers, followed closely by the Rams and Lions, who also have good home matchups as they return from their bye week. The highest point total on the board is from the Bears visiting the Bengals in one of the early games. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 8. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jaxson Dart ($5,200) New York Giants (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (48.5 total)
The Giants lost one exciting rookie when Cam Skattebo (ankle) went down with a season-ending injury last week, but they still have Dart under center as they host the 49ers this week. Dart’s profile as a dual-threat quarterback gives him a high ceiling, and he has been impressive since taking over from Russell Wilson.
Throughout this post, we’ll rely heavily on an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, highlighted above. In those aggregated projections, Dart has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback on DraftKings’ main slate by a significant margin. Dart also has a 97% Bargin Rating, showing his salary is extremely favorable on DraftKings compared to other DFS sites.
Dart is a bargain at only $5,200, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his five starts. He has finished with over 18 DraftKings points in each contest, with a high point of 29.4 DraftKings points two weeks ago in a road loss to the Broncos. He had 19.4 DraftKings points last week in a loss to the Eagles on the road, and he beat the Eagles in his most recent home game while posting 23.6 DraftKings points.
The loss of Skattebo will definitely impact the offense, but it could lead to more rushing potential for Dart. He has run for four touchdowns in five games and thrown for at least one touchdown in every contest as well. He’s totaled eight passing touchdowns to go with his four rushing scores and is averaging 196.8 passing yards per game over his last five contests.
The 49ers rank in the middle of the league against QBs, but they did give up a big game last week to C.J. Stroud on the road and have allowed 13 passing touchdowns in their last seven games. With a banged-up pass rush, they’re not a “must avoid” option this week for sure, even if they aren’t an outstanding matchup either.
With Dart’s rushing and passing potential, he brings a very high ceiling and should be a great way to get a high ceiling at a low salary at QB this week. The concerns about the offense without Skattebo are legitimate, but they also should keep his ownership from being extremely high.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Ja’marr Chase ($8,400) Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) vs. Chicago Bears (52.5 total)
Chase is definitely not cheap, but he does have the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projection despite his lofty salary. Value plays don’t always have to be cheap; the players just have to outperform their salary-based expectations, meaning Chase will have to do a lot more to return value than Wan’Dale Robinson or Olamide Zaccheaus, who rank second and third just behind him in Plus/Minus projection.
Over the last few weeks, since Joe Flacco arrived at QB, Chase has been on a legendary run with tons of targets coming his way. He has at least 10 catches in three straight weeks since Flacco became the starter, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those three contests. He had 10 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown against the Packers, 16 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers, and 12 catches for 91 yards last week against the Jets. In those three games, he has a massive 54 targets!
With that much volume coming his way, Chase is getting all kinds of chances to make big plays and turn in outstanding numbers. He gets a good matchup again this week in what should be a high-scoring contest against the Bears. Chicago has allowed 10 wide receiver touchdowns in seven games, along with an average of 137.8 yards to the position.
If you can find a way to afford Chase this week, he looks like he’ll be a prime spot to pay up for some value.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Jaylen Warren ($5,500) Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50.5 total)
The same case for Chase could be made for Christian McCaffrey as a pay-up value play since he brings the highest Plus/Minus projection at running back, but instead I’m going to look right behind CMC and target Warren as my early week standout value at the position.
Warren and the Steelers lost to the Packers last week on Sunday Night Football and will need to bounce back against the red-hot Colts if they want to avoid dropping three straight and sinking back to .500. Warren has maintained his role as lead back in the timeshare, with Kenneth Gainwell mixing in as a change-of-pace option. Gainwell also had a costly fumble on Sunday, which isn’t going to help his case for playing time.
Since missing Week 4 with a knee injury, Warren has played over 50% of snaps in each of the last three weeks. He played 62% of snaps in Week 8 and produced a solid 62 rushing yards on 13 carries. In Week 7, he was even more productive on the ground, racking up 127 rushing yards on 16 carries and adding four catches for 31 yards as well.
Warren only has one touchdown on the year since Aaron Rodgers is throwing for so many scores, but he has at least 11 carries in each of his six games and is averaging over 60 rushing yards per game. The Colts have allowed an average of 75.5 rushing yards and 28.9 receiving yards per week to opposing running backs, and they’ve allowed two rushing touchdowns to the position over the last three weeks.
While it isn’t an easy matchup, Warren should be able to exceed salary-based expectations since he’s getting so much of the work, and he brings a high ceiling at $5,500, especially compared to the rest of the options under $6,000. Tyrone Tracy is another affordable starter, but he’ll be stepping in for Skattebo in a tough spot against San Francisco.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Juwan Johnson ($3,200) New Orleans Saints (+14) at Los Angeles Rams (43.5 total)
Johnson and the rest of the Saints offense will be working with a new quarterback this week as rookie Tyler Shough takes over for Spencer Rattler. The second-round pick will make his first start in a tough spot on the road against a strong Rams’ defense. One option he’ll be able to rely on, though, is tight end Juwan Johnson, who has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position.
The Saints are expected to be playing this game from behind, so Shough may have to throw the ball a lot. Johnson has been one of the team’s most reliable receivers this year, ranking third on the team in catches, targets, and receiving yards.
Johnson started the year hot with three straight games with at least five catches, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those three contests. He battled an ankle injury and had three down games in Week 4, Week 5, and Week 6, but he has bounced back in the last two weeks and returned to his involved and productive role.
In Week 7, he caught five passes for 79 yards against the Bears, and in Week 8, he caught five passes for 53 yards against the Bucs, exceeding salary-based expectations in both contests.
While the new quarterback does add some uncertainty to his target share, it also could mean even more work for the sixth-year veteran from Oregon. Johnson has solid PPR upside and has been busy enough to be a strong value play this weekend on DraftKings, especially since his salary remains under $3,500.
Pictured: Ja’Marr Chase
Photo Credit: Imagn
