The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Chicago Bears – $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
The Ravens slipped to 1-5 before their bye week, and they need to get things going in the right direction in a hurry if they want to make a playoff push. They have the second-highest team total on the main slate this Sunday, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and they’re expected to have star QB Lamar Jackson back from his two-game absence due to a strained hamstring.
Of the 20 starting QBs on the main slate, Jackson has the highest ceiling and median projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings in an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections. We’ll rely heavily on that combined set of projections throughout this post. In that aggregate, Josh Allen brings the highest floor projection since Jackson is a little higher risk coming off his injury.
Jackson struggled in his last game, ending up with just 12.7 DraftKings points against the Chiefs in the game he left with the injury. In his three previous games, though, his numbers were very solid. He had over 26 DraftKings points in each of his first three contests of the season, throwing for over 200 yards and multiple touchdowns in each game. He had nine touchdowns and no interceptions in those three contests while adding a total of 118 rushing yards and another touchdown on the ground.
Jackson comes back to a great matchup against the Bears, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. In six games, opposing quarterbacks have 16 total touchdowns against the Bears while averaging 221.7 passing yards and 21.0 rushing yards per game.
If you can handle the risk of the injury slowing him down or him needing a week to knock off the rust, Jackson always brings a high ceiling, and the matchup makes him a top GPP play to consider.
Top Value: Bo Nix vs. Dallas Cowboys – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
After leading a huge comeback win last week against the Giants, Nix has the highest Plus/Minus projections of all quarterbacks on DraftKings in the aggregate projections. He’s priced up a bit on FanDuel but still has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Nix matches six Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is more than any other QB on the board.
Last week, he struggled early against the Giants but led a furious fourth-quarter comeback, finishing with 279 passing yards on 50 pass attempts with two passing touchdowns to go with 48 rushing yards with two more scores on the ground. The Broncos will hope that Nix can have a lower volume of both passing attempts and rushes in most weeks, but ultimately, he stepped up and won his team the game with a massive stat line.
This week, he gets a very favorable home matchup against the Cowboys, who have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. In seven games this season, opposing quarterbacks have racked up 16 touchdown passes and added three rushing scores against Dallas. They’ve also averaged 276.9 passing yards per contest. The Cowboys defense looked much better last week against the Commanders, but facing Nix on the road will be a tough matchup for them and a great spot to play Nix.
In this smash spot, Nix brings elite value, and the second-year QB from Oregon rings a high ceiling as he continues to thrive in Sean Payton’s system.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor vs. Tennessee Titans – $9,500 on DraftKings, $10,200 on FanDuel
The top two running backs on the board are both in smash matchups as Taylor and the Colts host the Titans and Bijan Robinson and the Falcons host the Dolphins. Taylor has a slightly higher median projection on both sites in the aggregate projections and also has the top ceiling and floor projections on FanDuel.
Even though he remains an extremely expensive player to build around, Taylor’s outstanding production this season still makes him a good centerpiece to consider. He had the top projections across the board last week against the Chargers, and he finished with 94 rushing yards, 38 receiving yards, and three touchdowns for one of the best running back performances of the year.
Taylor has 11 touchdowns in seven games this year and has exceeded even his lofty salary-based expectations in five of his last six games. He has over 25 DraftKings points in each of those five games, with over 31 DraftKings points in four of those contests.
With Daniel Jones under center, the Colts offense has been extremely productive this season, and Taylor has been the clear focal point. They’ll come home after getting a nice road win against the Chargers last week and take on the Titans in a divisional matchup. The 1-6 Titans have allowed a league-high 10 rushing scores to running backs this season, and Taylor had three of those scores in the first meeting between these teams. He finished that game with a season-high 35.8 DraftKings points, and he’ll look to put another big game on the board this week at home in the rematch.
Taylor is carrying the load in the Colts offense right now, and with a favorable matchup and plenty of scoring chances, he should be able to continue his impressive season this Sunday. His ownership projection is actually a little lower than Robinson’s as well, making him more of a leverage play this week as well.
Top Value: Rachaad White at New Orleans Saints – $6,400 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
In another divisional matchup, Rachaad White of the Bucs brings the highest Plus/Minus projections at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the three-way aggregate. White will continue to fill in for Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) for at least one more week.
Irving has been sidelined since Week 4, and White took over the starting role with two big games against the Seahawks and 49ers. He only managed 38 rushing yards on his 10 carries on Monday but did still have some fantasy value since he snagged four catches for six yards. He has at least three catches in four straight weeks, staying very involved as a receiver out of the backfield in addition to handling most of the snaps and carries in the backfield.
White has shared a few carries with Sean Tucker, but he definitely seems to have a firm grasp on the lion’s share of the workload for as long as Irving is out. The game script got away from him on Monday as the Bucs had to play from behind, but this week, they should be able to play from ahead in New Orleans and lean on their running game led by White.
The Saints have been a top-10 matchup for running backs this season, allowing seven touchdowns to the position in seven games, along with 104 rushing yards and 28.1 receiving yards per week.
White should be set up to help his team bounce back in what could be a sneaky high-scoring game in the later window at the Superdome.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase vs. New York Jets – $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,600 on FanDuel
It took a week for Joe Flacco to settle in for the Bengals, but the veteran QB has looked ready to make Chase a premier wide receiver until Joe Burrow (toe) is ready to return With Flacco set to make his third start for Cincinnati, Chase has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week, and he also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on DraftKings.
Last week, Chase hauled in 16 of his 23 targets for 161 yards and a touchdown in the Bengals’ Thursday night win over Pittsburgh. Check that number again–23 targets! His massive game was his third straight contest exceeding salary-based expectations and his third straight with double-digit targets. The Bengals are clearly ready to throw the ball a lot and focus on getting Chase as many chances as possible.
Chase and the Bengals host the Jets this week in what could be a tough one-on-one matchup for Chase against Sauce Gardner. However, Gardner hasn’t been able to practice this week after leaving Week 7 with a concussion, which would give Chase a huge advantage against the rest of the Jets’ secondary.
Chase’s volume since Flacco has taken over gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor this week, and he can be a very strong pay-up play at receiver if you are able to make his hefty salary work with the rest of your roster. We’ve seen Flacco lean heavily on his top receiver and make them fantasy studs in the past, and that seems to be even more the case with Chase’s elite talent.
If Gardner is out, Chase becomes a smash play at home against the Jets, and even if Gardner plays, it’s hard to pass up Chase with so many targets coming his way each week.
Top Value: Zay Flowers vs. Chicago Bears – $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Chris Olave has been a recurring character at this point of these model posts each week, and this week, he again brings great value against the Bucs. However, he gets edged out for the top spot in the Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings by Zay Flowers, who has a massive 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he leads all receivers on the slate by matching nine Pro Trends as well.
Flowers has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections on FanDuel as well, where Olave takes the top spot again this week. Both are elite value plays since they have lower salaries but serve as their team’s top wide receiver target.
If Jackson returns as expected, Flowers will get a big boost against the Bears. He will also hopefully be fully healthy after battling a shoulder injury that had him questionable for the last game before the bye. He still had six catches for 46 yards against the Rams and has 5+ catches in five of his six contests this season.
Flowers had a season-high seven catches for 143 yards, a touchdown, and 31.1 DraftKings points back in Week 1 with Jackson under center, but he hasn’t been able to hit the 100-yard mark or find the end zone since then.
The Bears should be a solid bounce-back matchup for him since receivers have scored four touchdowns in the last two games against Chicago and 10 touchdowns in their six games this season. Opposing receivers have averaged 138.3 receiving yards per game against the Bears, and Olave had a pair of receiving touchdowns and a big game against them last week.
Flowers will hope for similar results this week, and his salary sliding all the way to under $5,500 on DraftKings makes him too good to pass up as a value option this week. Stacking him with Jackson is definitely a consideration, or he can be used as an independent play.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyler Warren vs. Tennessee Titans – $5,500 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
It’s a big week for byes, especially for top tight ends. Trey McBride is on his bye this week, and Brock Bowers (knee) was already out due to injury but is also on his bye. In the absence of those two big names, rookie Tyler Warren has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections. He also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel.
Warren has been exceptional this season for the Colts, who drafted him in the first round out of Penn State. He comes into this week’s contest on a three-game touchdown streak and has at least four catches in six of his seven games this season.
In his seven contests, he has 33 catches for 439 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 62.7 receiving yards per game. He added a rushing touchdown as well and is the No. 3 TE for the season on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
His steady flow of targets from Daniel Jones makes him one of the most reliable players at the position, and he can be played with a lot of confidence this week, especially compared to the other options on the board.
Top Value: Dalton Schultz vs. San Francisco 49ers – $3,300 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
Schultz has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel in our aggregate projections. He should be set for a huge workload this week, and his salary doesn’t reflect his big game last week or the injuries to the rest of the Texans’ pass-catchers.
Schultz had already developed into a solid PPR play with at least five catches in three straight weeks before the Texans’ Week 6 bye week. In Week 7, Houston’s offense struggled against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football, but Schultz led the way with a solid night of nine catches for 98 yards.
He got more work with Christian Kirk (hamstring) sidelined, and he could get even more work this week with Nico Collins (concussion) also not able to practice yet this week. If both of those receivers are out this week, the pass-catchers for C.J. Stroud ($5,100) will be very young and inexperienced aside from Schultz.
The veteran tight end is a solid value option against the 49ers, but he was limited in practice this week with back and shoulder injuries of his own, so be sure to double-check his status for this week as well. If he’s out, Harrison Bryant would be the next tight end up and could be a value steal as well.
Pictured: Ja’Marr Chase
Photo Credit: Imagn
