After a week off, the FedExCup Fall heads from Japan to Utah for this week’s Bank of Utah Championship. The event and course debuted last year as the Black Desert Championship, where Matt McCarty broke through for his first PGA TOUR win in just his third career start. Many of the players near the bubble for qualifying for next year in the FedExCup Fall standings will be looking to do the same thing and vault themselves up the standings with just three events left after this before the end of the year.
For more info on the visually stunning desert course, the field, and what to look for from a statistical perspective this week, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
Especially in large-field GPP tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Kurt Kitayama $9,600
Kitayama has the fifth-highest salary of all the players in the field, but he has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the entire field. He does have a pretty high ownership projection but has an even higher Perfect%, giving him a positive SimLeverage.
Even though including Kitayama won’t differentiate your lineup, he’s too good of a value to leave out entirely, so just be sure to include other less mainstream picks from later in this post to balance out the chalk.
Kitayama leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, while ranking third in Strokes Gained: Approach.
He has proven he can contend and even win in extremely low-scoring events, and this week should follow that pattern based on how things played last year, when McCarty finished -23. Kitayama won the 3M Open with a -23 as well and finished in the top five at the low-scoring John Deere Classic and THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Kitayama doesn’t need FedExCup Fall points since he finished in the top 50 before the playoffs, but he is playing his second straight event coming off a T48 in Japan. In his last six events, he has posted five top-20 finishes, so he comes into this event with great form and a proven ability to go low on scoreable layouts like this one.
Kevin Yu $9,500
Yu’s ownership projection is much lower at under 10%, so if you want pay-up leverage with your selection in this price range, he’s a great way to go. He has the highest SimLeverage of all the players over $8,000 and the fourth-highest in the entire field.
The 27-year-old is 61st in the FedExCup Fall standings and fighting for a spot in the Signature Events next season. He got his breakthrough PGA TOUR win last year in the FedExCup Fall, and he has started this fall with back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the Baycurrent Classic.
He’ll be making his debut at this course, but he has typically played well on low-scoring layouts that are similar to this, including top-25 finishes at the John Deere Classic and the Sanderson Farms Championship in the last few months.
Yu ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 14th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and fifth in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months. His short game has looked sharp in his last few events, and he seems set up to outperform expectations in Utah this year.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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