The NFL’s continued insistence on limiting the number of Sunday afternoon games strikes again in Week 6, with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The evening starts with the Bills at the Falcons at 7:15 p.m. ET, and then an hour later we get the Bears and Commanders.
The short gap between games means late swap isn’t much of a consideration, removing one of the strategy elements from the typical two-game slate. On the plus side, both games have totals around 50, so we should at least have plenty of offense.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,700) Buffalo Bills (-4) at Atlanta Falcons (50 Total)
The relevant question about Josh Allen this week is whether the Falcons will be able to do enough to push Allen. The Bills have just one one-score win this season, and in that game Allen topped 40 DraftKings points. In four other games he’s topped out at 25.86 points, certainly a good score, but probably not enough at Allen’s salary to win you a tournament.
The difference typically lies in how much rushing Allen does. When the Bills are in control, he’s happy to leave the carries for James Cook. However, he’ll take over and do it himself when he needs to, with 23 carries between the Bills’ loss and the close win over Baltimore, compared to 17 combined in the three easy Bills’ wins.
The four-point spread in this one suggests that Atlanta has a chance. Their young offense has made improvements throughout the season, culminating in a 34-point game against Washington last week. The Commanders are a better defense by DVOA than the Bills so in theory Atlanta can replicate that here — but football doesn’t always work out that way.
All told, I want some exposure to Allen here, and we can fairly easily save salary elsewhere. However, I’m restricting my Allen exposure to lineups with a lot of Falcons pieces as well, since he’s unlikely to have a big game without some Falcons skill position players joining him.
Value: Caleb Williams ($5,600) Chicago Bears (+5.5) at Washington Commanders (49.5 Total)
On the other hand, the market is anticipating the Bears needing to chase points, with Chicago installed as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. That should mean an elevated throw rate for Ben Johnson’s squad — against the same Commanders defense that was just torched by a young QB for 34 points last week.
All of which is good news for Williams and the Bears. They’ve had some growing pains with the new offensive system installed by Johnson, but some bright spots as well. Williams has two games north of 24 points and two games under 18, with the Bears getting Week 5 off. That extra prep time should also help Johnson scheme up some plays for this week, if he’s the offensive mind the Bears hoped for when they signed him from the Lions.
The Bears also have given Williams an impressive group of skill position players to throw to, one that looks even more potent with the emergence of rookie Luther Burden, and I’d expect the speedster to see an even bigger role this week following the bye. Williams is my favorite QB to play this slate, and he has the best Pts/Sal projection of any player (regardless of position) on the slate.
Quick Hits
Jayden Daniels ($6,900): Daniels ranks just behind Allen in median and ceiling, and just behind Williams in Pts/Sal projections. Daniels would probably project better against a bad Bears defense, but he’s got some drawbacks this week. The first is the knee injury that kept him out of weeks 3 and 4. He returned last week but ran just eight times for 39 yards. The bigger factor is the Commanders pass catchers — Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown have already been ruled out, and Deebo Samuel is questionable and missed practice Friday. It’s hard to put up many points throwing to 4th-string wide receivers and Zach Ertz.
Michael Penix ($5,000): Penix has topped 20 DraftKings points in two of four games this season and, like fellow 2024 first-rounder Caleb Williams, has plenty of dynamic receivers to throw to. However, the matchup with the Bills is a massive run-funnel, with Buffalo ranking 14th in DVOA against the pass but 30th against the run. The Falcons rank 30th in Pass Rate Over Expectation and would certainly like to win this one on the ground if possible, so the volume might not be there for Penix. On the plus side, he’s projecting for just 3% ownership. While I don’t expect him to be a GPP winner this week, his odds are probably higher than that, making him a +EV option.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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