The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Herbert at Miami Dolphins – $6,300 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
The Chargers dropped a second straight game last week against the Commanders at home, and they also lost star rookie running back Omarion Hampton to an ankle injury that landed him on IR. Herbert could have to carry the load more this week in a favorable spot on the road against the struggling Dolphins.
Of the 20 starting QBs on the main slate, Herbert has the highest ceiling projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings in an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections. We’ll rely heavily on that combined set of projections throughout this post.
He also matches six Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is more than any other QB on the board. Except for Herbert, only Bryce Young matches more than three.
He’s up to 1,229 passing yards on the season after completing 22 of 29 pass attempts last week, but only for 166 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He added 60 rushing yards on four carries, and he could continue to do more work in the run game with Hampton joining Najee Harris (Achilles) on the sidelines.
Herbert has been very sharp overall this year and seems very comfortable in the Chargers’ offense and with his strong group of receivers.
He should be set up to bounce back in a matchup against the Dolphins, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points this season to opposing quarterbacks. Miami got trampled by the Panthers last week, and Herbert will hope to help his Chargers leave South Beach with a win in Week 6. He’s a strong option to build around on Sunday’s slate, especially with so many other big-name QBs injured or playing in prime time.
Top Value: Trevor Lawrence vs. Seattle Seahawks – $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence and new Head Coach Liam Coen have the Jaguars 4-1 through five weeks, as they come off a huge Monday Night Football win over the Chiefs. Lawrence has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate projections.
Since salaries came out prior to his big game on Monday night, Lawrence is available at a bit of a discount. On Monday, the 26-year-old ran for a season-high 54 yards and added two rushing scores, including the game-winner. He also threw for 221 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
That was his best game of the year, but he had better passing numbers against the Bengals, who he tore up for 271 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 2. He’s flashed that kind of high ceiling, and he could be a great value play, especially if he starts adding more rushing production on a regular basis.
This week, he and the Jags host the Seahawks, who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game in the NFL this season, and Baker Mayfield just went off for 29.7 fantasy points on 379 passing yards against them last week. Lawrence probably won’t have enough chances to rack up those gigantic numbers, but he seems to be settling in well to the new offense and growing into a solid producer.
Lawrence has always been loaded with raw talent and upside, and maybe the Jaguars finally have a coach in place who can help him unlock it. At this salary, he leaves you lots of spending room in other spots while still offering a high ceiling himself, so he’s a very solid value to consider this week.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $8,400 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
McCaffrey is a great pay-up play to build around as the 49ers travel to Tampa. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the three-way aggregate on DraftKings and the highest median projection on FanDuel as well.
With both Brock Purdy (toe) and Mac Jones (knee/oblique) dealing with injuries, McCaffrey’s workload this week could be huge. If either one plays through his injury, he could rely more heavily on CMC to carry the workload, and McCaffrey has already had big games this year with each QB.
Last week, McCaffrey and the 49ers upset the Rams on Thursday Night Football, and CMC finished with a season-high 27.9 DraftKings points despite just 57 rushing yards on 22 carries. He made up for those numbers by catching eight of nine targets for 82 yards and a touchdown.
He has at least six catches in every game this season, which has given him a very high floor. He has at least 22 DraftKings points in each contest while averaging 24.8 DraftKings points per game. In each of his five games, he has exceeded salary-based expectations.
With such a focus on the passing game in addition to his rushing role, McCaffrey should find room to operate against the Bucs. While the Bucs have allowed only 3.6 yards per carry (seventh-best in the NFL), they have allowed a total of 257 receiving yards to RBs, which is the third-most of any team in the NFL. McCaffrey’s a reliable pay-up option to build around with so much work coming his way, and he offers both a high ceiling and a high floor in one of the spotlight games in the late window.
Top Value: Rico Dowdle vs. Dallas Cowboys – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
Earlier this week, I examined Rachaad White as a good value option, and he still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him a great option to build around on the other side of that matchup with the 49ers. Here, though, let’s look at another running back who is stepping into a larger role and could be lined up for a revenge game against his former team.
Last week, former Cowboy Rico Dowdle took over the Panthers’ backfield with Chuba Hubbard (calf) unavailable. Dowdle had a huge game, rushing for 206 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries against the Dolphins and adding in three catches for 28 more yards as well. Dowdle had been productive in his small part of the timeshare throughout the season, but this breakthrough game showed how high his ceiling can be when he gets more of the work.
Hubbard didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so he could either be ruled out or be extremely limited if he’s able to return. That should leave Dowdle set up in a favorable matchup for another monster game, especially since he’s facing his former squad.
The Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, giving up five running back touchdowns in five games and allowing 91.4 rushing yards and 59.8 receiving yards per game to the position.
Especially if Hubbard is out, Dowdle will be a great bargain play as he looks to build on last week’s huge performance.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua at Baltimore Ravens – $8,700 on DraftKings, $9,800 on FanDuel
Nacua has been the gold standard for wide receivers this season, and he’s at the top of our Week 6 projections across the board. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, he has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at receiver. Even though he’s the most expensive receiver on the slate, he actually seems underpriced a little bit, bringing the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at receiver on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel in the aggregate projections.
Through five weeks, Nacua leads the NFL in receptions, targets, and receiving yards by wide margins. He’s averaging over 10 catches and over 115 receiving yards per game. He had 10 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown last Thursday in the Rams’ loss to the 49ers and has over 24 DraftKings points in every game this season.
His volume and production are unlikely to slow down any time soon, and he has a beautiful matchup this week against the Ravens, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to WRs, including an average of two touchdowns per game to the position.
With such a heavy workload, he brings both a high ceiling and a high floor, much like McCaffrey at running back. Both fantasy stars look set up for another heavy workload and big game this week, so fitting them into your salary cap could be worth it in Week 6.
Top Value: Chris Olave vs. New England Patriots – $5,100 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
While he hasn’t been nearly as efficient and productive as Nacua, Olave has been getting similar volume in the Saints’ passing attack. For the second straight week, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on DraftKings, and this week, he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in our three-way aggregate projections for the week.
Olave has 54 targets on the year with 33 catches for 244 yards and a touchdown. Only Nacua has more targets, but five receivers have more catches than Olave. Still, getting him at barely over $5,000 makes him a great value.
The fourth-year receiver from Ohio State has at least 10 targets in each of the first four of his five games this season, and he finished with seven catches for 59 yards last week in the Saints’ win over the Giants. He hasn’t had massive totals, but his huge target share makes him a PPR beast. His teammate Rashid Shaheed caught the long touchdown in last week’s win, but the fact that the offense produced such a dynamic big play is a good sign for Olave in the big picture.
This week, he and QB Spencer Rattler will face the Patriots, who have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. The Raiders and Dolphins receivers had big games against them early in the year, but they’ve tightened things up against the Bills, Steelers, and Panthers.
The matchup isn’t the real reason Olave brings value, though; it’s much more about just the volume of work he gets each week, which gives him a high floor and a great ceiling if he breaks one of his many targets for a big play.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Jake Ferguson at Carolina Panthers – $5,300 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Ferguson has the highest ceiling and floor projections on DraftKings and the highest floor projections on FanDuel. He has the second-highest median projections on both sites and the second-highest ceiling projections on FanDuel. He’s right in the mix with Trey McBride for that top spot this week, and he has a great matchup against the Panthers this week.
Through five weeks, Ferguson has 41 catches for 272 yards and three touchdowns. No other tight end has more than 29 catches on the year, and only Puka and Olave have more targets at any position. Ferguson has become the go-to option in the Cowboys’ passing game, especially with CeeDee Lamb (ankle) out. Lamb didn’t participate in Wednesday’s or Thursday’s practice, so he seems to be trending towards missing a third straight contest.
The Panthers have given up 32 catches to tight ends in their five games this year, and they have allowed three tight end touchdowns, including two in the last two weeks to the Patriots and Dolphins.
Ferguson is having a breakout season in the high-volume passing attack of the Cowboys, and he’ll look to continue his big year in Week 6.
Top Value: Juwan Johnson vs. New England Patriots – $3,300 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Johnson has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $6,000 on FanDuel and under $4,500 on DraftKings.
Last week, Johnson only had two catches for 17 yards after being limited in practice all week by an ankle issue. He has been limited again this week, but he has a great matchup if he can play through the issue again on Sunday.
The Patriots have been the best fantasy matchup in the NFL for tight ends, allowing an average of 6.2 catches for 75 yards per game. They have given up at least eight catches to tight ends in three of their five games, along with a pair of tight-end touchdowns.
Johnson started the year hot with three straight five-catch games, and he’ll look to get back to that level against the Patriots. If he does, he’ll be a great value play to build around since his salary has sunk all the way below $3,500 on DraftKings, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating.
Pictured: Puka Nacua
Photo Credit: Imagn
