NFL DFS Picks: Week 5 Main Slate DraftKings Breakdown

With the start of bye weeks, we’re now down to 10 games on the Week 5 main slate, which kicks off at the usual 1:00 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Justin Herbert ($6,100) Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Washington Commanders (47.5 Total)

There are a ton of good QB plays on the Week 5 slate but no obvious standout option. The top four passers are separated by less than a point in median projection (and just three points in implied total), making it hard to pick between them.

One thing that Justin Herbert has going for him is the Chargers’ extreme pass rate. They continue to lead the league in pass rate over expectation while ranking third in overall pass play rate. That’s important when so many teams are implied for similar totals, since a larger percentage of those points should come through the air with a team like the Chargers.

The other nice thing about Herbert is the concentrated nature of the Chargers offense. Over 70% of his targets go to his three wide receivers, who’ve also accounted for all seven of his passing touchdowns this season. You probably don’t want to stack him with all three wideouts, but guessing right on the correct two shouldn’t be particularly difficult.

Plus, he’s on the cheaper end of the top group, with one of the best matchups against a Commanders team that ranks 25th in points allowed to QBs. I am concerned about his offensive line, though. Tackle Joe Alt is missing Week 5, and they lost Rashawn Slater for the season in August, leaving them with their 3rd- and 4th-string tackles starting this week.

Value: Justin Fields ($5,600) New York Jets (+2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (47.5 Total)

Justin Fields’ projection puts him just outside of the top four QBs this week, but he’s also cheaper than every member of that group. That makes him the Pts/Sal leader for Week 5, as he takes on a Cowboys team that has allowed every QB they’ve faced this season to score at least 24 DraftKings points.

It’s also a near-ideal situation from a gameflow standpoint. The Jets are slight underdogs, which means they should be able to put up points but will also have enough negative game script that Fields will be forced to drop back. I specify “drop back” rather than pass because the dream scenario is Fields tucking and running. He’s scored a bit over 57 DraftKings points in his two fully healthy games, with 30.9 of those coming with his legs.

His rushing ability gives him, at worst, a rock-solid floor against a bad Cowboys defense. He picked up seven carries in his first game back from a concussion and could see a few more this week with Braelon Allen out. At best, he’s able to be more efficient through the air as well, which would give him a massive ceiling.

Fields is a borderline lock for cash games and one of my favorite GPP targets, since he projects for less than half the ownership of Fields.

Quick Hits

Jayden Daniels ($7,100): After missing Weeks 3 and 4 with a knee injury, the Commanders declared that Jayden Daniels would be back as the starter in Week 5. That could lead to the Commanders being cautious with his rushing attempts, which limits his upside. Or he could be his usual self and provide an interesting way to stack the Chargers-Commanders game without eating the Herbert chalk.

Jared Goff ($6,500): The Lions are one of the few teams willing to stay aggressive even with a big lead, running up the score 52-21 over the Bears in Week 2 and 34-10 last week. That Week 2 game saw Goff throw for five touchdowns, while the production was mostly on the ground in Week 4. I’m not sure which we see this week, but the Lions are the biggest favorites with the highest implied total against the Bengals, keeping Goff in the conversation.

Bryce Young ($4,700): The Panthers are facing the Dolphins this week, who’ve allowed the second-most QB points behind the Cowboys on the season. If there’s ever a matchup for Bryce Young to break out, this is it. He topped 300 yards while throwing three touchdowns against the Cardinals this season in a tougher matchup and is cheap enough that a similar performance would be more than enough.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks