The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. New Orleans Saints – $7,700 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
The undefeated Bills look to move to 4-0 as they host the 0-3 Saints. The Bills have the highest implied team total on the board in our Vegas dashboard and are the heaviest favorites of the week. Allen has successfully led them past the Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins so far this season.
Allen has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections. We’ll rely heavily on that combined set of projections throughout this post.
Allen has a great matchup against the Saints and has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his three games this season. He finished with 23.0 DraftKings and FanDuel points last Thursday against the Dolphins, throwing for 213 yards and three touchdowns and adding 25 rushing yards. He is still without a turnover on the season to go with five passing scores and two rushing touchdowns.
His dual-threat ability gives him an extremely high ceiling in any matchup, especially one like this against the struggling Saints. He is an expensive option to build around, but if you can afford paying up, his ceiling is the highest on the board.
Top Value: Jaxson Dart vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $4,500 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Especially on FanDuel, Dart is too good of a bargain to ignore compared to the rest of the starting quarterbacks for Week 4. I looked at Drake Maye in Wednesday’s Early Look, who still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but Dart is close behind while also bringing the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Dart will make his first NFL start against the Chargers on Sunday after replacing Russell Wilson. The Giants drafted the 22-year-old with the No. 25 overall pick in the NFL Draft last year out of Ole Miss. He led this QB class in aDOT (11.1), YPA (10.8) and efficiency rating (181) in his last season with the Rebels and totaled over 2,000 rushing yards in 45 collegiate games. Like Allen, he brings a higher ceiling due to his rushing ability, and that also gives him a nice floor, since he can still produce even if everything isn’t clicking right out of the gate.
He showed good potential this preseason by completing 32 of his 47 pass attempts for 372 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He added 52 rushing yards on six carries as well.
In his debut, he’ll have a tough matchup against the Chargers’ defense, but he should be able to do enough to return excellent value. He’s priced well below every other starter on the slate, so he makes lots of sense if you opt to pay down at QB to save salary for other spots.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
McCaffrey dominates the running back rankings this week for this home matchup against the Jaguars. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the three-way aggregate this week, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, showing he can bring great value even though he isn’t cheap. He has to do more to outproduce salary-based expectations, but the projections indicate he’ll do just that.
CMC has gotten off to a great start to the year, exceeding salary-based expectations and producing over 22 DraftKings points and over 18 FanDuel points in each of his first three games this year. He has managed to reach that level with only one touchdown on the year by being heavily involved as a receiver. He racked up nine catches in Week 1 and 10 catches in Week 3, making up for the fact that he didn’t find the end zone in either game. Throughout his career, he has been a touchdown machine, so as he returns to touchdown-scoring form, he could have an even higher ceiling moving forward.
Even with Brian Robinson Jr. brought in just before the season, CMC should continue to carry a heavy enough workload to be a pay-up option as long as he’s healthy in San Francisco.
If you find good, cheap values in other spots that help differentiate your entry, McCaffrey can be a solid pay-up play even if he’s chalky this week. It looks like his ‘Niners will get Brock Purdy (left shoulder/toe) back from an injury, setting the offense up for a good week against the Jags. Jacksonville has been solid against the run so far this season, but McCaffrey still stands out as an excellent ceiling play in Week 4.
Top Value: Omarion Hampton at New York Giants – $5,900 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
FanDuel and DraftKings have vastly different salaries for Hampton and his counterpart on Sunday, Cam Skattebo ($5,500 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel. Both rookies are stepping up into much larger roles after injuries to Najee Harris (Achilles) and Tyron Tracy Jr. (ankle). As a result, Hampton brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on DraftKings, while Skattebo has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Hampton broke through with 19 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown while adding six catches for 59 yards on his way to 24.9 DraftKings points and 21.9 FanDuel points in Week 3. He looks set to be the featured every-down back in coach Jim Harbaugh’s run-heavy attack and should get plenty of chances to step up against the Giants. He has an extremely high ceiling in New York.
Skattebo has had back-to-back big weeks and was already in an expanding role prior to Tracy’s injury. He had a quiet Week 1 but played 52% of snaps in Week 2 and 59% in Week 3. He had 13.9 DraftKings points on 11 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown, along with two catches for 14 yards in Week 2 and followed that up with 10 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown while adding six catches on eight targets for 61 more yards and a total of 24.1 DraftKings points. Especially with more work as a pass-catcher, he should continue to be a great value on FanDuel even in a tough matchup against Hampton and the Chargers.
Depending on which site you’re playing, each of the rookies is cheaper but both have very high ceilings and good chances to outproduce expectations on both sites.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua vs. Indianapolis Colts – $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
QB injuries and tough matchups dot the top of the wide receiver pool this week, but Nacua stands out as a consistent and productive option as his Rams welcome in the Colts in a battle of two 3-0 teams. Nacua has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the aggregate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has been the No. 1 WR in the NFL through the first three weeks of the season on both sites.
Nacua put up over 25 DraftKings points in each of his three games this season. He had 10 catches for 130 yards in Week 1, eight catches for 91 yards with a 45-yard rushing touchdown in Week 2, and 11 catches for 112 yards in Week 3. He has the second-most targets in the NFL behind only Chris Olave of the Saints, and he has a league-leading 29 catches.
Like CMC, Puka’s production could be even higher if he starts finding the end zone more. Without Cooper Kupp, Nacua has become an even more involved part of the passing game under Matthew Stafford, who relies heavily on him in every game plan.
He makes a ton of sense as a pay-up play against the Colts, who have had some injury issues in their secondary and given up some big wide receiver performances this season.
Top Value: Jakobi Meyers vs. Chicago Bears – $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
After a slow Week 3, Meyers looks poised for a big-time bounce-back against the Bears, according to our projections. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings in our three-way aggregate projections for the week.
His teammate Tre Tucker dominated the fantasy world last Sunday with the highest score of the week, but normally it’s Meyers who gets most of the looks in Las Vegas.
In his first year with his new coach Pete Carroll and new QB Geno Smith, Meyers has remained a mainstay in the offense, especially after the sudden retirement of Amari Cooper. Like Puka, he gets plenty of targets, which provide him both a very high ceiling and a very high floor.
He had eight catches for 97 yards on 10 targets in Week 1 against the Patriots, and he followed that up with an even busier 12 targets in Week 2. He only hauled in six of those opportunities for 68 yards but still exceeded salary-based expectations. In Week 3 in Washington, he caught three of his four targets for 63 yards, while Tucker was going off for three touchdowns and 43.9 DraftKings points on the other side.
Long-term, Tucker’s emergence could actually help Meyers since it will balance defenses out, allowing Meyers to pile up plenty of production. The Raiders have a great matchup at home in Week 4 against the Bears, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Brock Bowers vs. Chicago Bears – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
The Bears are also a good matchup for tight end Brock Bowers, who is an expensive play but remains the top tight end in fantasy football. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the aggregate projections on both sites.
While he has battled a knee injury that has kept him from really going off, he has still finished with at least four catches in three straight contests to start the season. He has 14 catches on 21 targets for 179 yards, and he’s still looking for his first touchdown.
This matchup at Allegiant Stadium could turn into a high-scoring, back-and-forth scoring fest that produces plenty of fantasy points for players on both sides. The Bears have allowed four catches to tight ends each week this season, and they’re averaging 8.0 catches for over 50 yards a game.
If Bowers is healthy, he brings exactly the kind of upside you want in a pay-up ceiling play at tight end, and his lower numbers this season should keep his ownership level palatable.
Top Value: Tyler Warren at Tennessee Titans – $4,600 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
The Colts have worked to get Warren very involved as a pass-catcher in the first three games of his NFL career, and the No. 14 overall pick has stepped up with 14 catches for 193 yards while leading the team with 21 targets. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but he is a big option over the middle who should be a great red zone target going forward.
Warren has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites this week in our aggregated projections, since his Colts are taking on the Rams, who have allowed an average of 42.3 yards per game to the position over the first three weeks of the season. They also have one tight end touchdown against them from last week against the Eagles.
Warren should be able to find room to operate against the Rams’ strong front seven, and he remains a very valuable safety blanket for QB Daniel Jones, who has led the Colts to a surprising 3-0 start to get the season underway. This should be a great test for them on the road against the Rams, and Warren should be a great option to include in your fantasy lineup in his regularly busy role on Sunday.
Pictured: Puka Nacua
Photo Credit: Imagn
